DAS ROBINSON HIGHLIGHTS NEED TO SUPPORT DEMOCRATIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 GUATEMALA 000518 SIPDIS DEPT PLS PASS TO USAID/LAC - K. SEIFERT E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/27/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV SNAR PINR ELAB KDEM GT SUBJECT: DAS ROBINSON HIGHLIGHTS NEED TO SUPPORT DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS IN WAKE OF GUATEMALA'S ROSENBERG SCANDAL REF: A. GUATEMALA 453 ¶B. GUATEMALA 473 Classified By: Acting Pol/Econ Couns Brian Harris for Reasons 1.4 (b) a nd (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: During his May 18 visit to Guatemala, WHA Deputy Assistant Secretary Robinson underscored U.S. support for CICIG's investigation into the assassinations of businessman Khalil Musa and his Amcit daughter Marjorie, and lawyer Rodrigo Rosenberg. He urged his interlocutors to de-politicze and support an impartial investigation and take advantage of the political crisis to pass legislation to strengthen democratic institutions and improve transparency. President Colom, Vice President Espada, President of Congress Alejos, and private sector and civil society leaders all expressed support for CICIG's investigation and agreed on the importance of resolving the murders. Robinson's visit was well received and underscored U.S. support for the stability of Guatemala's democratic institutions. Political pressure for President Colom to step down has declined significantly since DAS Robinson's visit. In a meeting with the Ministries of Economy and Labor, DAS Robinson highlighted the importance of addressing the AFL-CIO's labor complaint and noted our continued support for Pathways to Prosperity. End Summary. Meeting with President Colom -------------- ¶2. (C) WHA DAS David Robinson met with President Colom (accompanied by Vice President Espada and Foreign Minister Rodas) to discuss the Rosenberg case and the political crisis caused by Rosenberg's allegations (ref A). President Colom thanked DAS Robinson several times for his visit and noted how his close personal relationship with the Ambassador enabled him to rely on the U.S. government for political advice. Colom felt well supported by the United States. He underscored his commitment to democracy and the rule of law and said he wanted to start a dialogue with opposition groups to reach consensus on national priorities. ¶3. (C) Colom categorically denied the allegations made in Rosenberg's tape and written declaration, noting that "I know I'm innocent and the majority of Guatemalans know I'm innocent." Colom characterized Rosenberg's accusation as the greatest challenge of his life and maintained that it was 
part of a conspiracy by various enemies to destabilize his government. He referred to a chain of events set in motion the week of March 25 when the killing of two public bus drivers resulted in a paralysis in city traffic and widespread fear. These killings were followed by the April 14 assassination of businessman Khalil Musa and his Amcit daughter Marjorie. Musa was a pillar of the Guatemalan business community, having served for over 40 years in various business chambers and other civic organizations. Musa's death had a deep emotional impact in the private sector and brought home to Guatemala's business elite the fear Guatemala's crime wave has already instilled in other levels of society. Finally, the May 10 Rosenberg assassination and his taped allegations caused an outpouring of fear that was manifested in rallies calling for his resignation the following week. ¶4. (C) Colom compared his enemies to "dark monsters in a cave that you can hear but not see." He claimed that his administration's policies were shining a light in the cave and motivating his enemies to mobilize against him. He said Qand motivating his enemies to mobilize against him. He said that organized crime and narcotraffickers have been against him since December 2008 when he replaced many senior military officrs. Colom noted that following these changes, Gatemala's security apparatus had "dramatically improved its effectiveness in combating organized crime and narcotrafficking." He claimed the business elite are against him and his fiscal reform designed to increase government revenues necessary to fortify rule of law institutions and carry out important social programs. Finally, he noted that various elements in Guatemala felt threatened by the prospect of his wife (First Lady Sandra Torres de Colom) becoming President, despite her never having declared her intent to be a candidate. Colom claimed that her dedication to social issues and improving opportunities for Guatemala's lower socio-economic class upset those with a vested interest in preserving the existing power structure and their ability to manipulate state institutions to their benefit. ¶5. (C) Colom stressed that impunity is a "perversion" in GUATEMALA 00000518 002 OF 004 Guatemalan society that must be addressed. Impunity is bred by a long-standing culture of corruption and intensified by the enormous resources of criminal organizations and narcotraffickers. He anticipated that the fight against narcotraffickers will be difficult but ultimately easier to win than the fight against corruption which permeates all levels of Guatemalan society. ¶6. (C) Colom went on to note that the "plot to destabilize the government" had wider implications. Guatemala needs to have a stable government to support El Salvador as it manages its government transition. Foreign Minister Rodas interjected noting that Guatemala wanted a strong political alliance with the new Salvadoran government. Without a strong alliance with Guatemala, Central America risked polarization along ideological lines. For this reason it was essential that Guatemala's democratic institutions be strengthened in the wake of the Rosenberg scandal. The May 13 OAS declaration supporting the Colom government had been very important to shoring up institutional stability in Guatemala. Equally important were OAS calls to utilize CICIG and existing institutions to investigate and solve the murders of Rosenberg and the Musas. ¶7. (C) DAS Robinson said that the U.S. supports the democratically elected government of Guatemala. He stressed that the GOG, with CICIG's assistance, needed to solve the case promptly, professionally, and impartially. He noted that we share President Colom's views of the importance of a strong Guatemala-El Salvador bilateral partnership. He urged the Colom Administration to take advantage of the moment to press for passage of pending legislation that will strengthen rule of law institutions and improve transparency. ¶8. (C) The Ambassador underscored DAS Robinson's message of support for the investigation and highlighted the need to pass the pending law to improve the transparency of Guatemala's Supreme Court nomination process. (Note: This legislation was approved May 22. End note.) Meeting with Minister of Government Gandara -------------- ¶9. (C) In DAS Robinson's meeting with Minister of Government Gandara, the discussion veered from the immediate political crisis to broader security challenges facing Guatemala. Gandara recounted the historical institutional weaknesses that have allowed crime to spiral out of control in Guatemala. The military was reduced far below the levels mandated in the 1996 Peace Accords, depriving Guatemala of this critical security force. Guatemala's national police force (PNC) was poorly trained and equipped. The lack of adequate academic training meant that officers had to learn their craft on the street and do not receive sufficient training in the public safety, investigation, surveillance or other skills. Only 500 investigators were employed to support Guatemala's 20,000 police officers. The overwhelmed investigative staff undermined PNC morale who knew that the criminals they arrested, often at great personal risk, stood little chance of going to jail. ¶10. (C) While core functions of his Ministry, such as properly training and equipping police officers, had long been neglected, the Ministry had also been saddled with numerous mandates that distracted the Ministry from its main public safety and security function. These functions should Qpublic safety and security function. These functions should be assigned to other ministries. However, the nature of Guatemala's political system, with a new government every four years, worked against efficiency and institutionality. Gandara noted that every administration had its own vision of the mission of the Ministry of Government and re-organized its offices and re-prioritized budgets to suit their vision. The lack of a consistent vision reduced the effectiveness of the Ministry. Gandara stressed the need for successful efforts, such as the USAID-funded community policing program in Villa Nueva, to be expanded. Gandara is working to ramp up anti-gang and anti-drug task forces. Meeting with CICIG Deputy Commissioner -------------- ¶11. (C) DAS Robinson discussed the status of CICIG's investigation with Deputy Commissioner Ana Garita. Garita noted her concern over the highly politicized investigative environment. She acknowledged that in any case involving incendiary charges against a sitting president, avoiding politics would be nearly impossible. However, CICIG and the GUATEMALA 00000518 003 OF 004 international community has had to continue to press for an impartial investigation free from political meddling. For example, she said, President Colom should refrain from meeting again with the Attorney General and ministries should expedite cooperation on evidence requests and search warrants. Garita noted that the circuitous bureaucratic process is slowing down such requests and increasing the possibility of corruption since they pass through numerous hands. ¶12. (C) Garita stated that the Rosenberg investigation was particularly complicated due to the number and prominence of the individuals implicated. She noted that CICIG has been under extraordinary pressure to produce rapid results, and expressed concern that it would not be able to meet the public's high expectations. DAS Robinson noted our commitment to supporting CICIG's investigation and underscored its key role in resolving the murders as well as the political crisis. Garita thanked DAS Robinson for FBI support and noted that U.S. support was critical from a financial, political and technical point of view. ¶13. (C) Garita raised CICIG's request to open an office in Miami to improve coordination with U.S. law enforcement and improve security for personnel currently working in Guatemala. DAS Robinson agreed that a Miami office made sense for CICIG and said that the USG is reviewing privileges and immunities issues for CICIG personnel. Lunch with Private Sector and Civil Society Leaders -------------- -------------- ¶14. (C) In a wide-ranging lunch roundtable with private sector and civil society leaders, DAS Robinson discussed the current crisis and Guatemala's intractable security problem. They complained about Guatemala's culture of impunity and corruption, noting that Colom's government had not taken sufficient steps to combat corruption and that the (then) ongoing protests in front of the National Palace were a manifestation of Guatemala's youth frustrated with the lack of leadership and employment opportunities. University students and other young, educated middle-class Guatemalans made up the bulk of the "pro-justice" protesters. ¶15. (C) On the Rosenberg case, Roberto Ardon, Executive Director of CACIF, Guatemala's most influential business association, noted several obstacles to successful resolution. Ministerial cooperation with CICIG was either slow or non-existent. This could slow the investigation and allow important leads and evidence to disappear in the interim. The crisis had inflamed public opinion, and the public was likely to demand quick results. Finally regardless of the outcome, many sectors would question, the credibility of the investigation. All of these factors would combine to weaken the President politically but not take down the government. ¶16. (C) Dionisio Gutierrez, a leading businessman, highlighted the involvement of Banrural, a quasi-state bank, in the crisis. He noted its close relationship with Guatemala's increasingly powerful cooperatives and speculated that its rapid rise to the number three bank in Guatemala in terms of assets was highly improbable without involvement in illicit activities. Jorge Briz, President of the Chamber of Commerce and former Foreign Minister, agreed, noting that something was not right at Banrural, but "that's the trouble Qsomething was not right at Banrural, but "that's the trouble with corruption, everyone knows where it is but it can never be proven." ¶17. (C) Departing from the Rosenberg case, Frank LaRue, a leading human rights activist and former Presidential Human Rights Commissioner, noted the inability of the state to successfully combat organized crime and narcotrafficking which was quickly tightening its grip in various regions of Guatemala. He said the Central America portion of the Merida Initiative was critically important to helping Guatemala combat organized crime, but needed to be re-thought. He said the strategy seemed disjointed and appears to have been added as an appendage to the more robust Mexico program. While thanking the USG for the initiative, he worried about its operational effectiveness in Central America. ¶18. (C) DAS Robinson noted the complexity of the challenge and the importance of the private sector's support for CICIG and its investigation. The Rosenberg tape had inflamed public dismay with corruption but it was important not to overly politicize the case in a way that undermines the GUATEMALA 00000518 004 OF 004 Guatemala's democratic institutions. Rather, various sectors of Guatemalan society should take advantage of the moment to move forward with legislation to strengthen institutions and improve transparency. Meeting with President of Congress Alejos -------------- ¶19. (C) In a meeting with President of Congress Roberto Alejos (brother of President Colom's Private Secretary Gustavo Alejos, implicated in the Rosenberg tape),DAS Robinson discussed the complex political challenges facing Guatemala in the wake of the Rosenberg scandal. Alejos noted with relief that protests held the previous day (May 17) had been peaceful. However, 90,000 people took to the streets in an unprecedented expression of popular will. The Rosenberg tape had exposed the numerous social pressures in the country. He said many sectors are afraid of that the President's social democratic agenda will upset the current power structure. Some are even concerned that government giveaways (such as Guatemala's conditional cash transfer program, Mi Familia Progresa) will lead to populist authoritarianism in the mold of Chavez or Morales. None of this is true, he said, but the President's party (UNE) had made some mstakes to fuel such speculation such as when theUNE deputy bench leader announced that the President would dissolve Congress if the fiscal reform law was not approved. Meeting with the Ministries of Economy and Labor -------------- --- ¶20. (C) DAS Robinson also met with Minister of Economy Ruben Morales and Vice Minister of Labor Mario Illescas to discuss the CAFTA labor complaint. DAS Robinson highlighted that the complaint was serious and the USG and Congressional leaders were focused on the case. Guatemala needed to actively work to resolve the five cases cited in the complaint and address the underlying systemic issues. Vice Minister Illescas discussed progress on the Pedro Zamora murder case. Minister Morales said he felt Guatemala was in a "good position" to resolve the remaining cases and avoid formal consultations. ¶21. (C) Regarding Pathways to Prosperity, DAS Robinson noted that the Obama Administration would continue to support the effort and Secretary Clinton was leading our delegation to the ministerial meeting in San Salvador. Minister Morales, a strong supporter of Pathways, underscored the importance of US support for the initiative in promoting the hemispheric integration of economies and in ensuring that trade benefits accrue to all levels of society. Morales confirmed he will attend the meeting. ¶22. (C) Comment: DAS Robinson's visit came the day after large protests both in opposition and in support of the Colom Administration were held in Guatemala City. Robinson and the Ambassador emphasized in meetings and to the press the need to support a quick, thorough and impartial investigation and take advantage of the situation to strengthen rule of law institutions. The DAS Robinson visit and other USG and foreign messages led Colom opponents to lower the intensity of their calls for Colom to resign. Since the visit, a law to improve transparency in the Supreme Court selection process was passed (May 22) and demonstrations have tapered off and political reverberations resulting from the case have decreased in intensity. Q ¶23. (U) WHA DAS David Robinson cleared this cable. McFarland