THE ROSENBERG CASE: THOUSANDS TAKE TO THE STREETS

C O N F I D E N T I A L GUATEMALA 000478 C O R R E C T E D C O P Y - ADDED ADDRESSEE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SOCI KDEM KJUS KCRM GT SUBJECT: THE ROSENBERG CASE: THOUSANDS TAKE TO THE STREETS IN LARGE YET PEACEFUL PROTESTS REF: GUATEMALA 453 Classified By: Poloff George Mathews for reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: More than a week after his death, the accusations made by attorney Rodrigo Rosenberg against President Colom, the First Lady, and Colom's inner circle continue to reverberate in Guatemala. On May 17 thousands took to the streets in two very large yet peaceful demonstrations both against and in support of the government. The fact that there was no violence associated with the protests is due in part to the successful coordination and mediation efforts of the government and private sector over the weekend prior to the demonstrations. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) According to reports in the national and international press, approximately 60,000 people in total turned out May 17 for two separate demonstrations. About 30,000 protesters calling for justice in the Rosenberg case gathered in the square in front of City Hall. A similar number of people assembled in the Plaza of the Constitution to show their support for the Colom government. The two groups never came into contact, and both demonstrations took place without incident. ¶3. (C) The anti-government protesters appeared to come mostly from the middle and upper classes of Guatemalan society. One observer at the rally said the majority of those participating were in their 20s and appeared to be students or recent graduates of private universities. As a group, these protesters seemed very tech-savvy, and there are numerous reports that organizers of this group relied heavily on social networking tools such as Facebook and Twitter, as well as text messaging, to mobilize and organize participation in Sunday's protest. There are also indications that young people are pushing more established institutions into supporting these protests. Emboff was told by sources in the Guatemalan Chamber of Commerce (CACIF) that CACIF was initially hesitant to openly throw its support behind Sunday's rally. However, after college-age children of CACIF members felt threatened by pro-government demonstrators at rallies last week, rank-and-file CACIF members demanded the organization's leaders take action. ¶4. (U) The opposition demonstrators demanded a prompt and credible investigation into the Rosenberg murder and, more broadly, greater transparency and justice and an end to Guatemala's culture of impunity. Their rallying cry was, "Justicia para Todos," or "Justice for All." The demonstrators also presented to Congress a petition with 30,000 signatures demanding that President Colom be stripped of his immunity to face an investigation in the Rosenberg case. Several opposition figures, including Otto Perez Molina, Harold Caballeros and Eduardo Suger, took part in the demonstrations, but did not address the crowd. ¶5. (U) The demonstration in support of President Colom was largely organized by the President's political party, the National Unity for Hope (UNE). Demonstrators appeared to come largely from the lower economic class and from smaller cities or rural areas. UNE Secretary General Juan Alfaro told the Ambassador May 16 that he had contacted 135,000 UNE members; he predicted 100,000 would attend. According to "Prensa Libre," the most widely read newspaper in Guatemala, UNE spent approximately USD 1 million to bus in supporters, QUNE spent approximately USD 1 million to bus in supporters, as well as to pay for meals, bottled water, and to arrange for the rally's stage and audio-visual equipment. A presidential spokesman and the Secretary of UNE both denied reports that government workers were told to attend the rally. Governors, mayors and members of Congress from around the country also took part, giving speeches in support of President Colom and First Lady Sandra Torres. Participants made no formal demands, although many of those present were quoted in the media expressing strong support for the social welfare programs initiated and coordinated by the First Lady. ¶6. (U) Although large numbers of those supporting President Colom appear to be from the lower socio-economic class, the President does not necessarily have the support of Guatemala's large indigenous population, who are among the poorest in the country. A coalition of indigenous groups issued a joint press release calling on indigenous people to stay out of the dispute. ¶7. (C) After several heated exchanges during pro- and anti-Colom rallies last week, there was concern that Sunday's very large rallies could turn violent. As a preventative measure, Vice President Rafael Espada convened meetings on Friday and Saturday nights with representatives from UNE, CACIF, the Human Rights Ombudsman's office (PDH),the national police (PNC),the military, and the U.S., Canadian and Spanish ambassadors. During the meetings, it was decided that the demonstrations would be held in separate locations out of sight of the other, that leaders on each side would have the others' cell phone numbers, and that there would be a strong, unarmed PNC and military presence. It was also decided that PDH personnel would be used to resolve any conflicts and an effort would be made to ensure that speeches were not inflammatory. ¶8. (C) Despite the ultimately successful outcome of these meetings, there were published reports that mistrust ran high during the negotiations. During demonstrations on May 14, there were no PNC or military forces present and the protesters and counter-protesters came close to violence. On May 15, after the first round of the Vice President's meetings, CACIF requested that the Constitutional Court issue a ruling requiring the government to provide security at Sunday's protests. Reportedly, President Colom was angered by this, and interpreted the move by CACIF as a lack of confidence in his assurances to provide security. On May 16, the court ruled in CACIF's favor. ¶9. (SBU) COMMENT: While it is still too early to determine the long-term effect of this political scandal on the Colom administration, it has created a polarization between those clamoring for greater transparency and justice on one side, and those benefiting from rural development programs and defending Colom on the other. We expect the current state of tension to ease, but the crisis over the Rosenberg tape will doubtless create pressure for an early beginning to the electoral campaign as the opposition parties seek to take advantage of this blow to the Colom government. McFarland