A/S SHANNON'S MARCH 19-21 VISIT TO GUATEMALA

S E C R E T GUATEMALA 000311 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2018 TAGS: PREL ECON SNAR CVIS PGOV PHUM UN HO ES CU GT SUBJECT: A/S SHANNON'S MARCH 19-21 VISIT TO GUATEMALA REF: A. GUATEMALA 222 ¶B. GUATEMALA 170 ¶C. GUATEMALA 239 ¶D. GUATEMALA 265 ¶E. GUATEMALA 134 ¶F. 2008 GUATEMALA 1550 ¶G. 2008 GUATEMALA 387 Classified By: Pol/Econ Counselor Drew Blakeney for reasons 1.4 (b&d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) During his March 19-21 visit to Guatemala, WHA Assistant Secretary Shannon met with President Colom, other senior members of government, CICIG Commissioner Castresana, and representatives of civil society, press, and the business sector. Colom said Guatemala's fiscal conservatism would help it weather the global economic crisis, but that the economy is vulnerable to weakening export markets and slowing remittances. Enhanced counter-cyclical assistance from IFIs could help limit the social and political impact of the economic crisis. Also discussed were the security environment and counternarcotics assistance, including the Merida Initiative. CICIG Commissioner Castresana sought support for extension of CICIG's mandate, and addressed worrisome developments on the security front. End Summary. Meeting with President Colom -------------- ¶2. (SBU) President Alvaro Colom opened his meeting with visiting WHA Assistant Secretary Tom Shannon by confirming his attendance at the March 30 meeting with Vice President Biden in Costa Rica. He thanked Assistant Secretary Shannon for USG counternarcotics assistance and specifically for the Merida Initiative, and lauded President Obama's announcement that his administration would pursue immigration reform. A/S Shannon said counternarcotics and economic issues would be priorities at upcoming meetings with Vice President Biden as well as at the Summit of the Americas. Economic and Regional Developments -------------- ¶3. (C) The USG is looking at how it can help the most vulnerable Latin American countries, specifically those of Central America and the Caribbean, weather the global economic downturn, A/S Shannon said. Colom said that Guatemala's traditional fiscal conservatism had positioned it fairly well, but the country's principal export markets -- the U.S. and Central America -- are being hit hard. Additionally, Guatemala's economy is vulnerable to diminishing remittances from the U.S. A/S Shannon said the USG was working with International Financial Institutions (IFIs) to help the most vulnerable countries ensure that the economic crisis does not become a social and political one. The region will have many elections in 2010, and it will be important that the resulting governments not be the product of voters' economic desperation. Colom urged the USG and other participating countries to recapitalize the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB). Colom said economic issues would dominate the upcoming Summit of the Americas, and that President Obama would be "the star of the summit." Regarding El Salvador, A/S Shannon opined that the FMLN was better positioned than ARENA to manage the serial consequences of the downturn due to the FMLN's strong organization in El Salvador's poorest communities. Colom said he was deeply worried by Daniel Ortega's erratic leadership in Nicaragua. Turning to his recent visit to Cuba, Colom said his decision to bestow the Order of the Quetzal on Fidel Casto had been "a huge mistake." ¶4. (C) Turning to human rights, Colom mentioned civil society and state efforts to gain access to military Qsociety and state efforts to gain access to military archives, and said the state needs to develop better mechanisms for exploiting state security force archives in support of investigations into conflict-era crimes (ref a). Colom mentioned that the Army is recruiting 2,000 more soldiers in order to strengthen state control in areas under threat from narcotraffickers. Discussion with Senior Security Leaders -------------- ¶5. (C) The Ambassador hosted a security issues meeting for A/S Shannon with Minister of Government Salvador Gandara, Attorney General Amilcar Velasquez, Minister of Finance Alberto Fuentes Knight, and Coordinator of the National Security Council Francisco Jimenez. Attorney General Velasquez said the current Extraditions Law hamstrings authorities by requiring that foreign nationals be tried first in Guatemala for any crimes committed in the country prior to extradition. CICIG was working with Congress on draft legislation that would change that. Minister Gandara said the press were to blame for misconstruing his public comments about remitting approximately USD 35 million to the Treasury because the police did not need additional equipment, and there were pressing needs at other ministries. In fact, he said, he had to return the money -- which had been earmarked for police salaries -- because the Ministry had been able to hire only 4,800 new police officers, rather than the planned 10,000. NSC Coordinator Jimenez said consensus on the need for specialized courts to deal with organized crime cases was emerging (ref b). AG Velasquez urged the Assistant Secretary to support extension of CICIG's mandate, which is currently due to expire in September (ref c). More Unconditioned Financial Assistance Needed -------------- ¶6. (U) Minister of Finance Fuentes Knight told A/S Shannon that Central American countries need more counter-cyclical assistance resources with fewer conditions attached. Too much of donors' (U.S., Germany, Taiwan, Japan, and others) assistance ebbed and waned in line with global economic conditions. More IFI resources were needed. Minister Fuentes opined that the current recession would get much worse in Central America (ref d). Gangs and narco-trafficking were always a temptation for poor young people, and could be relatively more attractive as Guatemala begins to feel the full effects of the global downturn. Tax revenues were already falling in line with decreasing economic activity, which would in turn further weaken the state's inadequate social safety net, Minister Fuentes said. Meeting with CICIG Commissioner -------------- ¶7. (S) CICIG Commissioner Castresana told Assistant Secretary Shannon that CICIG's lawyers and the GOG's disagreed about whether the Guatemalan Congress would need to approve a two-year extension of CICIG's mandate. CICIG thinks it does, but the GOG intends to renew via an exchange of diplomatic notes with the UN. (Note: Earlier in the day, Foreign Minister Rodas told A/S Shannon that CICIG's mandate can and will be extended via an exchange of diplomatic notes with the UN. End Note.) Castresana said that immediate congressional approval would be politically useful because he will soon announce indictments of former President Alfonso Portillo and several former senior military officers for corruption. He anticipated that would earn him many enemies in Congress. Castresana said he also soon would have major announcements in the case against former Chief Homicide Prosecutor Alvaro Matus (ref e) and the Nicaraguan bus murders case (ref f). CICIG's Security Concerns -------------- ¶8. (S) Targeted criminals so far are opposing CICIG's efforts mostly in the courts, Castresana said, where they currently have the upper hand. If their legal defenses falter, those under CICIG investigation might next resort to a public campaign to disparage CICIG. Only if that too fails does Castresana believe that the next step might be violence, first against CICIG's Guatemalan collaborators and perhaps then against himself and his staff. Noting that the state has yet to provide adequate security for its own public servants, Castresana said that he feared for the security of Qservants, Castresana said that he feared for the security of Organized Crime Chief Prosecutor Rony Lopez and Police Chief Marlene Blanco. He said Attorney General's Office needs $4 million for armored vehicles and other protection for its staff; the bill for hardened courts that would try organized crime cases would be higher. It will be important to get clean magistrates elected to the Supreme Court (the election must be held NLT Sept. 12),Castresana opined. In response to A/S Shannon's question about Mexican narcotraffickers' penetration of the state, Castresana said Guatemalan traffickers had initially thought they could form partnerships with the Mexican traffickers, but that the Mexicans are now taking over, as was graphically demonstrated by the March 2008 narco-massacre in Zacapa (ref g). The Guatemalan traffickers are now being forced to loan to the Mexicans their entire infrastructure -- police, prosecutors, judges, and Members of Congress. Castresana thanked A/S Shannon for the USG's and the Embassy's strong operational, financial, and political support. He said he enjoys good relations with President Colom and correct relations with MinGov Gandara and AG Velasquez; the tremendously corrupt courts -- including the Supreme and Constitutional Courts -- are the weakest links. ¶9. (U) WHA Assistant Secretary Shannon cleared this message prior to transmission. McFarland