GUATEMALA ANTICIPATES CLIMATE CHANGE, BUT WILL SUPPORT G-77

UNCLAS GUATEMALA 001450 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: SENV KGHG GT SUBJECT: GUATEMALA ANTICIPATES CLIMATE CHANGE, BUT WILL SUPPORT G-77 in COPENHAGEN REF: A) 2009 GUATEMALA 782; B) 2009 GUATEMALA 1352 C) 2009 SAN JOSE 1056 ¶1. (U) Summary: On November 12, a panel of diplomats, scholars and civil society representatives discussed the issue of climate change at an event hosted by the Latin American School of Social Sciences (FLACSO). All panelists viewed climate change as an imminent but reversible threat and lamented the already evident effects that global warming has had on Guatemala. Speakers supported the idea that countries that historic polluters (developed countries including the US and Europe, but not large-scale developing polluters) should bear the cost of reversing or slowing climate change, a point of contention within multilateral institutions. Panelists also acknowledged the importance of the upcoming Copenhagen Conference on Climate Change (COP-15),however, in recent weeks, the GoG has made clear that they will support the G-77 position, rather than that of the USG. End Summary. A SCIENTIFIC PROBLEM WITH SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES FOR GUATEMALA ¶2. (U) Panelists emphasized the fact that while climate change is typically seen as a scientific issue, as time passes, the impacts will be largely social. Several participants warned that climate change is already affecting Guatemala, supporting this claim with examples of the recent food crisis (Ref A) and the algae bloom at Lake Atitlan (Ref B). Both events, amongst others, have negatively impacted the social well-being of many Guatemalans. Carlos Mansilla, the Director of the Climate Change Unit at the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (MARN) described the irony of the situation in which most polluters are wealthy consumers from developed countries, and the victims of climate change will be the rural, poor, indigenous, women, and children. COST SHARING AND CARBON EMISSIONS ¶3. (U) Rita Mishaan, the Director for Human Rights for Indigenous Communities at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, posited that the world's historic polluters should take responsibility for their actions and fund initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. She stated that "personal responsibility" by developed nations was necessary to address climate change and she outlined a mostly anti-US position indicating that, "consumerism and western ideals have done away with the idea of responsibility." While other panelists shared the notion that polluters should pay, Mansilla indicated the need for "differentiated responsibilities" within the international climate change fight. Dr. Ivan Azurdia from the National Climate Change Board, said that for Guatemala this means that the GoG adopt a functional energy policy and reduce government subsidies for coal-fired power plants. LAST CHANCE IN COPENHAGEN? ¶4. (U) The panelists all viewed the Copenhagen Conference on Climate Change (COP-15) as a key juncture in the world's efforts to combat climate change and its effects. The British Ambassador, Julie Chappell stated that the European Union will speak with one voice at COP-15 on issues such as emissions targets and the establishment of a global fund for developing countries to fight climate change and mitigate its effects. Other panelists agreed with Mishaan stating that there is a "lot riding on Copenhagen," and that it could be the world's "last chance" to appropriately address the issue. However the British Ambassador diverged from this view and stated that Copenhagen was a "starting point," rather than an end. ¶5. (SBU) In recent weeks, press reports have highlighted the potentially dramatic effects that climate change could have on Guatemala. The GoG sent a delegation to COP-15 headed by the Vice President, Rafael Espada. However, the GoG has made public its intentions to support the G-77 position, rather than that of the USG (Ref C). The DCM raised the issue with Present Alvaro Colom on Thursday, December 3, but the President indicated Guatemala would maintain its G-77 influenced stand. ¶5. (SBU) Comment: It was clear from Carlos Mansilla (who is participating as a delegation member in Copenhagen) that MARN holds the position that developed countries should set strict emissions targets and establish an unrestricted fund fro developing countries to deal with global warming - a position shared by the G-77. The GoG does so knowing this position could scuttle any chance of reaching a deal in Copenhagen. Thus, despite a relatively strong relationship with Guatemala on issues of environment and development, the USG is unlikely to receive much support from the GoG at COP-15. End Comment. MCFARLAND