Guangxi AI Update: Still No Link To Bird Outbreak -

UNCLAS GUANGZHOU 000076 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/CM, OES/IHA, MED, CA/OCS/ACS/EAP STATE PASS TO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY COLLECTIVE STATE PASS TO USAID FOR ANE AND GH DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE FOR OSD/ISA/AP HHS PASS TO OGHA, NIH/FIC, CDC/COGH AND FLU DIV TMOUNTS AND NCOX USDA PASS TO APHIS, FAS (OSTA AND OCRA),FSIS BANGKOK FOR RMO, CDC, USAID BEIJING FOR HHS HEALTH ATTACHE AND RMO E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: TBIO KFLU CASC SOCI PREL HK CH SUBJECT: Guangxi AI Update: Still No Link To Bird Outbreak - Possibility of Asymptomatic Strain REF: Guangzhou 0055 ¶1. (U) Summary: Authorities have been unable to link the H5N1-death of a Guangxi teen, the 5th fatality of 2009, with an outbreak among bird populations. Some south China health experts suspect that recent human AI cases may be associated with birds that carry and transmit the virus but do not themselves exhibit symptoms. Others believe that the deaths are likely linked to sick or dead poultry that have already been consumed or discarded. One expert emphasized that the recently reported human AI cases remain sporadic, showing no signs of a pandemic outbreak. End summary. ¶2. (U) Pointing to the lack of detected H5N1 avian influenza (AI) outbreaks among poultry and water fowl, HE Jianfeng, Deputy Director of the Epidemic Disease Prevention Institute of Guangdong CDC, said there is a possibility that China's recent human AI cases may be caused by exposure to an asymptomatic strain (i.e. birds that carry and transmit the virus but do not themselves exhibit symptoms) of AI among bird populations. He noted that all of the recent human AI patients had had contact with poultry either directly or at a wet market. ¶3. (SBU) Professor ZHONG Nanshan, Director of the Guangzhou Research Institute for Respiratory Diseases, and well-known "SARS Doctor," acknowledged that the possibility of asymptomatic AI was a key consideration, pointing out that birds can carry the virus asymptomatically even after receiving vaccinations. However, he emphasized that the recently reported human AI cases remain sporadic, showing no signs of a pandemic outbreak. He believes that the high mortality rate is associated with delays in diagnosis and treatment, especially in rural areas, and has encouraged health officials to be especially careful with pneumonia cases that cannot be effectively controlled within 48 hours. ¶4. (SBU) Deputy Director of Guangxi CDC, CHEN Jie, however, questioned the likelihood of asymptomatic AI among birds, stating that sick and dead poultry are likely the cause of the January 26 death of a teenager in Guangxi (REFTEL). He speculated that Guangxi authorities had been unable to locate and test the poultry responsible for the infection because the birds probably already had been consumed or discarded. GOLDBERG