South China Migrant Workers: Coming Back Soon, Tickets

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUANGZHOU 000057

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ELTN ELAB PGOV SOCI ECON CH
SUBJECT: South China Migrant Workers: Coming Back Soon, Tickets
Permitting, but Where Are the Jobs?

REF: A) 2008 GUANGZHOU 48; B) GUANGZHOU 47; C) GUANGZHOU 42; D) 2008
GUANGZHOU 715

(U) This document is sensitive but unclassified. Please protect
accordingly.


1. (SBU) Summary: Last year's cold and snow storm chaos were a
distant memory at south China train stations teeming with migrant
workers and other travelers under the watchful supervision of
student volunteers and police, backed up by military-uniformed
People's Armed Police. This year's Lunar New Year migration
operated at full capacity for weeks, with trains leaving Guangzhou
every few minutes throughout the day and night. Bus lines and
airports filled the gap for many travelers unable to secure train
accommodations due to ticket shortages and related problems. Most
migrant workers still appeared clueless about the full scale of the
economic crisis, telling us they believed their jobs to be secure,
but, in any case, they were planning to return regardless of whether
they had a specific position lined up after celebrating the New Year
in their hometowns. End summary.

No Train Tickets, No Problem?
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2. (SBU) Guangdong train ticket shortages were the biggest story in
the lead up to this year's Chinese New Year, but what a difference a
year makes. The talk before the annual migration was of last year's
transportation crisis (ref A); the reality this year is that the
government, not wanting to leave anything to chance, had done a
pretty good job, weather permitting, planning for the exodus home.
Though, as it turns out, you can never have enough planes, trains,
buses, cars and motorcycles. Media outlets estimated that as many
as 40 million people were planning to depart Guangdong prior to
January 26, the official first day of the Year of the Ox.
Prospective travelers did confront difficulties in getting home, of
course, being forced, in many instances, to stand in line for 12-36
hours for a train ticket home, or repeatedly call a ticket hotline
(new tickets were released 7 days before departure but sold out
within hours of being released),or pay illegal scalpers and
facilitators for tickets.


3. (SBU) Standing in line was the only option for many workers who
lack money but not time. At one of several Guangzhou ticket sales
centers protected by heavy security, thousands of people - starting
almost two weeks before the Chinese New Year - lined up day and
night to buy train tickets. Econoff visited one of the centers late
in the evening on January 12 and was surprised to hear eerie group
wailing noises when waiting travelers saw on large information
monitors that their preferred train departures had just sold out,
forcing them to delay their planned Guangzhou departures and buy
tickets for the next available departure. The latter could be hours
or even days later, and the travelers were without places to stay
until their scheduled departures.


4. (SBU) The railway ticket hotline was promoted by official media
as a great way to buy train tickets, but line capacity problems and
geographic limitations on callers meant that econoffs, interested in
traveling with the workers, were not able to purchase tickets on any
westward-bound trains despite calling repeatedly for several hours
each morning from January 9-14. One local traveler who successfully
obtained a ticket via the phone hotline said she paid a facilitator
RMB 100 (approximately USD 14.60) to do it for her, a fee equivalent
to almost 50 per cent of the value of her ticket. She explained
that facilitators use special repeat dialing machines to keep
calling until they get through and purchase the client's requested
train ticket, which travelers can pick up at any station or sales
center by providing a unique pin number issued by the hotline
operator. The traveler said she would not have been able to obtain
a ticket without help, and that the fee was worth it in order to get
home and spend the holiday with family.


5. (SBU) Ticket scalpers remained the only other alternative for
many travelers, a risky option for all parties. Internet and media
reports in the week before Chinese New Year reported thousands of
arrests of scalpers and reiterated that travel agencies and other
non-official sales of train tickets are banned during the Lunar New
Year peak travel period. In addition to high costs and gross
inefficiencies in the market for train tickets, the threat of
counterfeit tickets remains very high when dealing with scalpers.
Price markup of scalper tickets appeared similar to those of equally

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illegal "facilitators" who helped obtain tickets via the telephone
hotline, and every kiosk and store front seemed willing to call
scalper and facilitator associates about ticket availability when
asked by econoff for help in securing train tickets.

Netizens - Sold Out Trains Run Empty?
--------------


6. (SBU) Internet chat rooms posted numerous complaints and comments
on the dearth of train tickets during the Chinese New Year peak
travel period, as first reported on Consulate Guangzhou's South
China SEZ blog. In one posting, a traveler complained that after
difficulty securing a standing-room only ticket, 30 per cent of
seats on the train turned out to be unfilled, leading to speculation
that train station officials might be collaborating with ticket
scalpers. The posting concluded that scalpers or some other
connection were the only reliable way to secure tickets, an idea
supported by another traveler with whom econoff talked, who said her
return ticket would be purchased in Wuhan with help from a local
police officer friend. She speculated that without assistance, it
might be difficult to return to her office job in Shenzhen in time
for normal hours on Monday, February 2. (Note: For more information
about Guangzhou's blog postings, please see:
http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/ southchinasez/. End
note.)

Migrant Workers - Blissful Ignorance
--------------


7. (SBU) Migrant workers awaiting their departures at Guangzhou
train station on January 16 and 20 confidently told econoff they
would be coming back after the holiday, regardless of whether their
employer was willing to rehire them. One factory worker from
southern Guangzhou's Panyu District said she expected her employer
to rehire her after Chinese New Year, despite layoffs and a steep
decline in winter orders at her factory. Another factory worker,
from Dongguan, expressed similar optimism that he would be
reemployed despite many job cuts at his factory in the last three
months. Many workers appear to be returning earlier than normal in
order to be the first in line for factory and other jobs as the
week-long holiday ends (ref B),as indicated by long lines at bus
and train ticket sales centers in smaller cities like northern
Guangdong's Shaoguan. An unemployed laborer from southwest China's
Guizhou Province separately told econoff that his most recent job
had ended but he would return to look for a new one after the
holiday. He also said he would consider migrating to another
coastal province if he could not find suitable work near his
previous construction site in Guangzhou. A lengthy job search was
preferable to remaining unemployed in his hometown, according to the
young man.


8. (SBU) Managers at several export-oriented firms confirmed to
econoff their intention to reduce employment after the New Year
holiday, although the affected employees would not be notified until
after final numbers of returnees became apparent in February. The
owner of a mid-sized Dongguan toy factory predicted he would reduce
his employees by up to 25 per cent despite steady orders for his
company's popular educational toys, mostly in order to hedge against
continuing economic uncertainty (ref C). A middle manager at an LCD
component trading firm said her company's top management told
department heads to plan on cutting 10 to 20 per cent of their
employees after returning from the New Year holiday. However, the
manager seemed surprised when asked if employees were aware of
impending job cuts by saying that it's unlucky to fire employees
before the holidays, commenting that this would also give her more
time to decide which employees should be let go.

GOLDBERG