South China-Southeast Asia Relationship - Growing Closer,

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 GUANGZHOU 000504 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP, EEB STATE PASS USTR E.O. 12958: DECL: N/A TAGS: ECON PREL EFIN ETRD EINV PGOV CH VM SN MY SUBJECT: South China-Southeast Asia Relationship - Growing Closer, Still Dominated by Trade and Investment GUANGZHOU 00000504 001.2 OF 003 ¶1. (SBU) Summary and comment: Local governments and businesses in south China are using a range of tools to capitalize on the region's proximity with Southeast Asia to increase trade and attract investment. Annual trade expos, special economic zones and infrastructure development are among the initiatives that have been employed to bring the two areas closer together economically. Cultural similarities, particularly in languages, and tourism are facilitating the effort. Comments from local representatives of ASEAN countries suggest that while they are well aware of China's economic strengths and the advantages of a closer economic relationship, they also note its weaknesses and recognize their neighbor to the north as competitor as well as a partner. End summary and comment. -------------- Showcasing Trade -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The annual China-ASEAN Expo is perhaps the most prominent example of the efforts to highlight and strengthen south China's growing economic relationship with Southeast Asia. In 2004, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce and the governments of the ten ASEAN nations (Burma, Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam) sponsored the first China-ASEAN Expo to promote trade. The Expo has been held on an annual basis in Nanning, the capital of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, which borders Vietnam, ever since. ¶3. (SBU) According to Professor Wang Juan of Guangxi University, the China-ASEAN Expo has been a success. Participants and exhibits are increasing each year, and the nature of the products being exhibited is evolving too. In the past, exhibits mainly focused on agriculture, garments, and shoes, she said. Now, when you walk the Guangzhou and Shanghai halls, electrical and machine-based products are more visible. While Laos and Vietnam promote aquaculture products, Malaysia publicizes education and Singapore touts its banking sector. -------------- Zones, Circles, and Corridors -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Scholars in south China point out that the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, which will be created in 2010 according to the China-ASEAN Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Framework (CACECF), will build on and facilitate localized efforts to develop trade and investment relations. Professor Gu Xiaosong, Deputy Director of the Southeast Asian Studies Institute and Vice-President of the Guangxi Academy of Social Sciences, said that an agreement on goods and services, which has already been signed, and an agreement on investment expected later this year would only deepen the trade relationship between China and ASEAN. Trade volume has grown annually at a rate of approximately 20%, he said, reaching US$230 billion last year. This growth exceeds growth in trade between China and the United States and also between China and Japan, he added. ¶5. (SBU) Cooperation between south China and some ASEAN countries has already been strengthened under the CACECF. According to Professor Li Xinguang, Deputy Director of the Southeast Asian Studies Center at Guangxi University, a Sino-Vietnam Economic Circle is one of the products of the agreement. The Chinese government signed on to this Vietnamese proposal last year, leading to the development of two "economic corridors:" a western corridor, or highway, between Kunming and Hanoi, and an eastern corridor between Nanning and Hanoi. A Nanning-Singapore Economic Corridor has also been proposed. According to Professor Gu Xiaosong, this corridor, originating in Nanning and passing through Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and Malaysia, would consist of 3,000 kilometers of public roads and railways to facilitate trade. Although many of the roads and railways involved already exist, he said, the plan is to eventually connect them. ¶6. (SBU) Construction projects are also underway to connect Guangxi's Fangchenggang port with the national railway network to allow it to handle petroleum and gas. According to one professor at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies at Sun Yat-sen University, Guangxi's port is poised to serve as "the gateway of southwestern China." He pointed out that, in the past, cargo from this area was exported through Guangdong province, but the development of the Fangchenggang port would substantially shorten the transportation distance to Southeast Asia. ¶7. (SBU) Aside from these proposed projects, China currently has two GUANGZHOU 00000504 002.2 OF 003 other major economic cooperation programs with Southeast Asia. One is the Pan-Beibu Development Zone that covers south China, including Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Hunan, and Hubei in addition to Vietnam, Laos, Burma, and Cambodia. The other is the Sub-Regional Cooperation Program of the Mekong River that promotes exchanges between China's southwestern provinces and Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Burma, according to Professor Yuan Ding at Sun Yat-sen University. -------------- Vietnam Trade and Investment Taking-Off -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Vietnam, in particular, has seen economic relations with south China grow dramatically even in the face of the global economic downturn. According to Tran Viet Thai of the Vietnamese Consulate in Guangzhou, in the first four months of 2009, exports between Guangdong Province and Vietnam totaled more than US$798 million, an increase of 13.1% from 2008. Although trade in agricultural products decreased 15%, exports of electrical products increased 26%, and exports of hi-tech products more than doubled. Imports from Vietnam totaled US$363.5 million, an increase of 43.4%. Investment is growing as well. As of December 2008, Guangdong investment in Vietnam totaled 40 projects, mostly related to infrastructure, worth US$310 million, and Vietnamese investment in Guangdong totaled 6 projects worth more than US$3 million. According to Tran, Guangdong Party Secretary Wang Yang visited Vietnam in September 2008 and signed agreements on 22 projects worth US$1.57 billion. -------------- Cultural Ties Offer an Advantage -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Many of our contacts underscored the presence of overseas Chinese in Southeast Asia and other cultural ties as key factors in the growing relationship. According to Zhuang Guotu, President of the Nanyang Research Institute of Xiamen University, there are about 44 million overseas Chinese throughout the world, and 32 million, or about 70%, are living in Southeast Asia. Shawn Sim, Trade Consul at the Malaysian Consulate in Guangzhou, said that 30% of Malaysia's population is Chinese, and 70% of Singaporeans are of Chinese ancestry, according to Kenneth Teo, Trade Consul at the Consulate of Singapore. As a result, for Southeast Asians to do business in China, language often is not an issue. Moreover, the dialect of the Zhuang minority in Guangxi shares similarities with Vietnamese, Lao, and Thai, said Professor Gu Xiaosong, making it easy for all sides to learn each other's language. ¶10. (SBU) Local educational institutions are taking steps to further enhance these cultural advantages. The Guangxi Dongfang Foreign Language College offers three-year language training in a variety of Southeast Asian languages. According to Professor Liang Yihua, the school opened in 2004 with an enrollment of 200 students. Expected enrollment for the upcoming semester is a whopping 10,000 students. The College has ties with universities in Thailand and Vietnam, including student and teacher exchanges as well as cultural programs. ¶11. (SBU) Increased tourism between China and Southeast Asia has also promoted trade. According to Professor Yuan Ding, ASEAN has been the top choice for Guangdong tourists in recent years. Furthermore, statistics from China's State Tourism Bureau indicate 5-10% year-on-year growth in tourists from Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, Thailand, and Indonesia. While several Southeast Asian countries offer visa-on-arrival for Chinese tourists, ASEAN hopes to eventually implement a no-visa tourism circle with China. -------------- Dealing with China in the Future -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Southeast Asian Consulate representatives in Guangzhou also raised some cautionary notes regarding the expansion of economic relations between their countries and China. Most prominent, they expressed concern about China's "infamous" food safety and sanitary issues. They also called on China to stimulate its domestic demand to help deal with the global financial crisis, expressing a desire to serve that market. ¶13. (SBU) China as a competitor was another important concern. Sim from the Malaysian Consulate said that Malaysia used to design furniture for export but because "China copies well" and Malaysian designers could not keep up, Malaysia is now the top supplier of raw wood to China, and China is the number one import source of furniture GUANGZHOU 00000504 003.2 OF 003 for Malaysia. Tran from the Vietnamese Consulate described the "threat" of the Chinese economy: "China is just too big." Vietnam will need to produce "better products and better services to compete," he said. GOLDBECK