Tiananmen Anniversary Likely to Pass Quietly in Guangzhou

C O N F I D E N T I A L GUANGZHOU 000338 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/20/2034 TAGS: PGOV CH SUBJECT: Tiananmen Anniversary Likely to Pass Quietly in Guangzhou Classified By: Consul General Robert Goldberg; reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary and comment: The big surprise in Guangzhou would be if the June 4 anniversary attracted much notice all, according to our contacts. They point out that young people are ignorant of the events of the Tiananmen Square massacre and older people have lost hope of bringing about change or been effectively silenced by the Chinese authorities. However, they are divided on the prospects for political change in the future. Some believe that the environment for political reform is worse today than it was 20 years ago. Others argue that the Internet and other low-key political efforts will result in meaningful political reform within the Chinese government and the Communist Party. There may be some truth to this in the long run; Party and government officials in Guangdong appear to pay attention to online commentary. But they also see the Internet as a tool of channeling and controlling dissent for their own purposes. End summary and comment. Ignorant, Hopeless or Silenced -------------- ¶2. (C) The 20th Anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre will pass without incident in Guangzhou, according to local observers. Yao Yuanguang with the Guangdong Humanistic Society told us that young people don't understand what happened. Claiming that he had participated in the protests himself as a student in Beijing, Yao said that people in their forties who remember the event won't do anything to commemorate it because they know that they will be unable bring about real change. In a separate conversation, Feng Shanshu, a journalist with China Reform Magazine, agreed that young people are completely ignorant about the massacre because they've never even heard about it from the media or in schools. He said that middle-aged, educated people know the facts, but keep silent because of the Chinese government's tight control. ¶3. (C) Some contacts were dispirited about the prospects for political change in the current environment. Feng commented that the media and schools in China distort the image of democracy and civil liberties, pointing out that many people believe the United States is full of crime and corruption. (Note: Feng lauded his experience as an International Visitor Leadership Program participant in 2008 for helping expand his understanding of reality in the United States. End note.) According to Yao, conditions for political change are much worse today than in 1989 because of the spread of corruption. He argued that many supporters of the Tiananmen protests were motivated by anger at government corruption, but today the Chinese people are indifferent as it is the norm. Moving Toward a Different Model of Revolution -------------- ¶4. (C) On the other hand, some local commentators, after analyzing why the Tiananmen protests failed to bring about change, believe that new methods of political discourse will be more successful. Hou Meixin, who blogs under the name Yu Yiwei and claims he also participated in the protests as a student, told us that he believed the Chinese Communist Party was responsive to proposals for change if delivered in a non-confrontational manner. He noted that as a signer of "Charter 08" he was able to make a political point without getting into trouble. He argued that more academic exchanges with the United States could help facilitate this process, citing the recent visit of U.S. economist Paul Krugman to Guangzhou. ¶5. (SBU) Guangzhou-based blogger Yang Hengjun made similar points in a recent posting (http://yanghengjunbk.blog.163.com). He contrasted "square politics" (guangchang zhengzhi),in which people take their complaints against the government to the streets, with "court politics" (fating zhengzhi),where people have a legal channel to appeal to the government for change. Yang believes that China is moving beyond "square politics" of the Tiananmen protests toward "court politics" with the advent of the Internet as a forum for political commentary. In the posting, he urges China's leaders to pay more attention to Internet commentary; otherwise netizens will be forced to go back to the "squares." He sees the "court politics" of the Internet as the only way by which China can build a "harmonious society." GOLDBERG