HOW REALISTIC ARE THEY? CHINESE GOVERNMENT GOALS FOR THE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUANGZHOU 000237 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/CM, S/P, INR/EAP STATE PASS USTR CHINA OFFICE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EIND ECIN ECON PGOV CH HK SUBJECT: HOW REALISTIC ARE THEY? CHINESE GOVERNMENT GOALS FOR THE PEARL RIVER DELTA'S DEVELOPMENT REF: A) GUANGZHOU 112; B) GUANGZHOU 30; C) 2008 GUANGZHOU 518; D) 2008 GUANGZHOU 456; E) 2008 GUANGZHOU 406; F) 2008 GUANGZHOU 419 GUANGZHOU 00000237 001.2 OF 002 (U) This document is sensitive but unclassified. Please protect accordingly. Not for release outside U.S. government channels. Not for internet publication. ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: What's new in the Pearl River Delta? Yet another, newer, improved development plan for one thing. The Chinese government recently unveiled its "Outline of the Plan for the Reform and Development of the Pearl River Delta," though it seems to be based largely on existing policy. So, what's new in this newest plan? According to local experts, there's more cooperation among municipal governments, for one thing; for another, the "double transfer policy" has received formal central government blessing. However, absent a more formal mechanism for implementation, the goals of this plan, like ones past, will be difficult to meet. Experts also told us the new plan is less ambitious than previous incarnations. The plan may have been drafted without outside input, but since its release, provincial authorities have made unprecedented efforts to solicit feedback from the public. END SUMMARY. Can't We All Just Get Along -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The new PRD Development Plan was unveiled to much fanfare in December 2008. The 122-page document lays out development goals for the region in 28 different economic areas. While local experts agree that the overall plan is a positive step forward, its success will depend on increased cooperation between local governments. Competition among municipalities has been blamed for preventing the effective administration of PRD-wide issues such as law enforcement and transportation, according to prominent blogger and Sun Yat-sen University Professor Guo Weiqing. The new development plan addresses this problem by requiring governments at the local, provincial, and national levels to work together on specific issues such as law enforcement and the construction of transportation infrastructure. ¶3. (SBU) However, Professor Wen Xianyuan of the Guangdong Academy of Social Sciences (GZASS) said the plan lacks any formal mechanism for implementation/coordination and does nothing to improve China's current administrative structure, which effectively discourages cooperation between local governments. Those same governments - with local officials recognizing their promotions are based on their performances - focus exclusively on GDP growth and tax revenue of their cities. So little has really changed as there remains a near single-minded focus on boosting the GDP of one community without regard for optimizing new development projects with nearby municipalities. Cities have built competing infrastructure like airports and port facilities in an effort to lure key industries to their areas, and this has weakened broader regional competitiveness and reduced the effectiveness of each individual project. In many PRD cities, there is so little cooperation that a road built in one municipality will simply dead-end when it reaches the border of the neighboring government jurisdiction. ¶4. (SBU) Professor Guo Weiqing said many experts recognize these problems, and there was some discussion of forming a committee of PRD-area municipal governments based on the structure of the European Union. Plans were abandoned because such an approach would not easily mesh with existing government structures. In fact, rather than creating a new body to oversee the local governments, Professor Guo said the plan also calls for local governments to be granted greater autonomy - a contradiction with which the plan is supposed to achieve, i.e., greater coordination. Other contacts expressed skepticism that municipal governments would be able to set aside old differences and cooperate without a formal structure. GZASS Professor Wen suggested that the city of Guangzhou should take the lead in implementing the plan, while Professor Guo felt that active intervention by central and provincial government officials would be necessary for success. New Plan Less Ambitious Than Previous Versions -------------- GUANGZHOU 00000237 002.2 OF 002 ¶5. (SBU) Local contacts acknowledge that there is very little new content in the PRD Development Plan. Points of emphasis have changed and some of the specifics are new, but most of the plan was drawn from existing government policy and previous development plans. In 2004, former Guangdong party secretary Zhang Dejiang announced the Pan-Pearl River Delta Cooperation Plan with a similar flourish of publicity. The 2004 plan included even more ambitious goals including formal integration of Hong Kong and Macau into the PRD region greater regional cooperation with SE Asia. Experts said the 2004 plan was never fully implemented, and commented that this new plan is an effort to lay out a more attainable set of goals. Sun Yat-sen University Professor Guo said the new outline is more focused and realistic than previous development plans, despite its weaknesses. Out With the Old Factories, In With the New -------------- ¶6. (U) Guangdong leaders used the PRD Development Plan to further bolster the province's so-called "Double Transfer" (shuang zhuanyi) strategy and officially make it a central element of the region's economic future (reftels A, E). Although the provincial government has encouraged such relocation efforts for some time (reftels B, C, D),and some feel this should have been tried four-five years ago, the policy has so far not met with much success, according to GZASS Professor Wen. Provincial leaders had been unable to secure central government approval for the double transfer strategy until it was codified in the broader PRD Development Plan. We Welcome Your Input, After We Announce Our Plan -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Following the plan's debut, Guangdong Party Secretary Wang Yang toured nine PRD cities and held meetings with prominent professors, bloggers, and think tank representatives to discuss development in the region. Li Jiankang, an entrepreneur who met with Wang, said that the meeting involved an open and honest exchange of ideas between the government and civil society that had not taken place in Guangdong for a long time. Contacts were optimistic that the meetings signaled a greater degree of transparency and openness in government, but Sun Yat-sen University Professor Guo noted that the PRD Development Plan was still formulated in the old style - by the government with very little outside input. Professor Guo also said it remains to be seen whether the provincial government will take any action based on the outside suggestions received so far. GOLDBERG