START FOLLOW-ON NEGOTIATIONS, GENEVA

S E C R E T GENEVA 001203 SIPDIS DEPT FOR T, VCI AND EUR/PRA DOE FOR NNSA/NA-24 CIA FOR WINPAC JCS FOR J5/DDGSA SECDEF FOR OSD(P)/STRATCAP NAVY FOR CNO-N5JA AND DIRSSP AIRFORCE FOR HQ USAF/ASX AND ASXP DTRA FOR OP-OS OP-OSA AND DIRECTOR NSC FOR LOOK DIA FOR LEA E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2019 TAGS: KACT MARR PARM PREL RS US START SUBJECT: START FOLLOW-ON NEGOTIATIONS, GENEVA (SFO-GVA-VII): (U) U/S TAUSCHER MEETING WITH RUSSIAN START HEAD OF DELEGATION ANTONOV, DECEMBER 9, 2009 Classified By: A/S Rose E. Gottemoeller, United States START Negotiator. Reasons: 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (U) This is SFO-GVA-VII-117. ¶2. (U) Meeting Date: December 9, 2009 Time: 5:00 P.M. - 5:30 P.M. Place: U.S. Mission, Geneva Participants: UNITED STATES RUSSIA U/S Tauscher Amb Antonov A/S Gottemoeller Mr. Desaultes Ms. Kirchgasser (notetaker) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶3. (S) U/S Tauscher met with Ambassador Antonov to discuss progress toward concluding the new START treaty. Antonov provided Tauscher with several papers on the offense-defense relationship in the new START treaty and stated that Russia was asking for "so little" on this issue, while at the same time linking the successful conclusion of the telemetry issue to the acceptance by the U.S. of missile defense language in the treaty. Antonov believed that both sides were close to finalizing the new START treaty, but that it was "up to the U.S. to decide." Tauscher briefed Antonov on her recent trip to Egypt and plans for the May 2010 Nuclear Non-proliferation Review Conference. Antonov noted his desire to work closely with the U.S., especially with Special Representative of the President for Nuclear Nonproliferation, Ambassador Susan Burk. End Summary. ¶4. (S) SUBJECT SUMMARY: Successful START Could Lead to Return to CFE; START Progress Report; Number of Inspections; Egypt and NPT RevCon; Developing a Unified P5 Statement. -------------- SUCCESSFUL START COULD LEAD TO RETURN TO CFE -------------- ¶5. (S) Tauscher opened the meeting by commenting on the improved relationship between the U.S. and the Russian Federation. She added that the START negotiations were the first experiment in capitalizing on the reset relationship. Antonov responded that it had been important to restore confidence and that initially there was distrust between the delegations. As the two sides began working together, confidence grew, he said. He added that a successful START negotiation and the ongoing conversation about strategic stability could lead to the resumption of talks regarding CFE. "We are optimists," he said. -------------- START PROGRESS REPORT -------------- ¶6. (S) Tauscher asked Antonov and Gottemoeller for an update on the day's meetings. Gottemoeller reported that there was a good discussion in the Ad Hoc Working Group and that the Russian side was interested in nailing down the U.S. offer regarding deployed and non-deployed launchers. Gottemoeller explained that the Russians were concerned about U.S. older equipment including the B52 and Minuteman II and their upload potential. ¶7. (S) Antonov said missile defense remained an important issue from the Russian perspective and that Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, whom Tauscher met in Moscow, wanted to be sure she had a clear understanding of the Russian proposal on missile defense. He provided Tauscher with a copy of the proposal which was provided to VCI via email. Antonov said Russia wanted a paragraph in the text of the treaty and viewed this proposal as asking very little of the U.S. "It's a principle without which we cannot solve the treaty," he said. Antonov said that resolution of the telemetry issue was linked to resolution of this missile defense issue for Russia. ¶8. (S) Antonov went on to say that the U.S. wanted telemetry and that although his original instructions were to say no, his president sent new instructions and elements of telemetry were put in the draft treaty. "We viewed this as a good step, but the U.S. side told us it was not enough," he added. Gottemoeller said there had been a discussion during the visit of U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, ADM Mullen and Chief of the Russian Federation General Staff, Gen Makarov regarding telemetry and that this had been a fruitful area of discussion and would be so in the future. Antonov said he hoped for new instructions from Moscow but that this was a political issue and that all decisions, especially those involving telemetry, were coming out of the Kremlin. ¶9. (S) Tauscher asked if the sides could conclude the treaty by the end of the year. Antonov said it depended on whether or not the Russian proposal was enough for the U.S. "It's up to the U.S. to decide," he said, though he did admit that the two sides were "very close." -------------- NUMBER OF INSPECTIONS -------------- ¶10. (S) Tauscher inquired if the number of inspections called for in the treaty was agreed. Gottemoeller responded that the number was an unresolved issue and that the Russians proposed 16 inspections and the U.S. proposed 20. Antonov questioned why such a technical issue had become politicized. Tauscher explained that many elements of the treaty are highly technical but that numbers in the new START treaty would be viewed in comparison with numbers in START I. She said that having 20 inspections was significant for ratification because it would demonstrate that there are signification verification provisions. Antonov argued that quality was more important than quantity; that it was better to have fewer, but more in depth inspections. Gottemoeller stated that differences in proposed numbers were relative given the small number of bases that would be subject to inspection in the U.S. compared to the large number in Russia, thereby making a smaller number acceptable to the Russians. ¶11. (S) Antonov reported that President Medvedev had said he would be willing to proceed without inspections and asked why the U.S. was suspicious of Russian activities, especially since the two countries were no longer enemies. Tauscher responded that inspections were important to both sides for strategic stability. Gottemoeller added that the two sides were originally far apart on this issue but that they were steadily moving toward each other. ¶12. (S) Antonov said more time was needed by Washington and Moscow to find solutions. He added that all top officials in the Kremlin were watching the negotiations and pressuring the relevant agencies to help. "My president is keen to see President Obama and have a result," he said. -------------- EGYPT AND NPT REV CON -------------- ¶13. (S) Tauscher told Antonov she had recently visited several Middle Eastern countries including Egypt. She said she was concerned that Egypt was not finding its way with regard to a resolution on a Middle East nuclear free zone and that the current situation was not sustainable. She said she wanted the Egyptians to resolve the issue in a way that provided them with a political benefit but was not harmful to Israel. She also wanted them to come down harder on Iran for its nuclear activities. With regard to determining language on a Middle East nuclear free zone, she said her Egyptian counterpart agreed that technical teams would meet soon to discuss and resolve the issue. She told Antonov she raised this issue with Ryabkov in Moscow as well. Antonov said he did not understand what Egypt hoped to get out of the May 2010 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference (NPT RevCon). He said he often heard from the Egyptian Ambassador but still did not know what Egypt wanted. Antonov recounted that the Egyptians had complained about him to his superiors about NPT issues and that he was upset with how that had been handled. -------------- DEVELOPING A UNIFIED P5 STATEMENT -------------- ¶14. (S) Antonov expressed strong interest in meeting with Special Representative of the President for Nuclear Nonproliferation, Ambassador Susan Burk. He said he was 100 percent sure that Russia had the same goals as the U.S. for the RevCon and that he wanted a unified P5 position. He asked Tauscher to give instructions to the U.S. to look at Russia's proposal, especially those from the May Third Preparatory Committee meeting and added that Russia does not want to isolate Israel. He stated his desire to discuss these proposals with the United States and hear what the United States thoughts' were on them. He also noted his concern that the U.S. and Russia have the same goals, and he wants to consult to ensure there are no "technical difficulties" in our positions. Tauscher responded that she would make sure Burk came to see Antonov and Gottemoeller added that Burk was coming to Geneva in January. ¶15. (S) Antonov emphasized his concern that the P5 was moving too slowly on a unified statement and that this was a crucial time for the NPT. Tauscher said she had discussed this with Ryabkov and that there would be an effort to get the P5 delegation together in January. Trying to persuade others is more easily done when we have a unified statement, Antonov added. Tauscher agreed and said a unified statement would be characteristic of our new relationship with Russia. Antonov added that on a sensitive issue like the Middle East, it is better to be unified. ¶16. (U) U/S Tauscher did not have an opportunity to review this cable before departing Geneva. Gottemoeller sends. GRIFFITHS