BOTSWANA POLITICAL ROUND-UP JANUARY 2009

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GABORONE 000098 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/S, AF/RSA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM MASS BC SUBJECT: BOTSWANA POLITICAL ROUND-UP JANUARY 2009 ¶1. The following is a compilation of January 2009 political highlights from Botswana, which did not feature in other post reporting. This cable covers: -IEC Prepares for October Elections -Political Parties in Disarray -Botswana-Zimbabwe Bilateral Meeting Scheduled -Police, Military Budgets Frozen IEC Prepares for October Polls -------------- ¶2. Botswana's Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) reports that 555,376 voters have already been registered ahead of the general election planned for October 2009. According to IEC Director Mr. Gabriel Seeletso, there are more voters registered now than for any previous Botswana election, and the IEC has noticed a special increase in the number of youth registered. However, Seeletso also noted that the IEC has only achieved about 85% of its own voter registration target for 2009. Registration for the general election will close at the end of March, which leaves another two months for the IEC to attempt to meet its target of registering 650,000 voters. The IEC also announced that it has established 2,288 polling stations internally and an additional 25 abroad. ¶3. According to Seeletso, the IEC has been holding a series of meetings around Botswana to address candidates and ensure that they are aware of their legal obligations. The IEC is also trying to encourage all political parties to sign on to a draft "code of conduct" for their campaign activities. However, currently only two parties, the Botswana Congress Party (BCP) and the Marx, Engels, Lenin, and Stalin Movement (MELS, a tiny fringe party) have signed. In a change from previous years, the IEC reports that over 74 politicians have registered to stand as independent candidates in the 2009 general election. (Note: Most of these candidates are politicians who failed to win primaries, but who feel their local popularity is strong and they wish to contest without the backing of their traditional party.) ¶4. Voter apathy has been a longstanding problem in Botswana, but Mr. Seeletso believes it could be addressed if politicians would better define their campaigns. He said citizens seem to lose interest in voting because politicians do not address issues which matter to them. Seeletso was confident that Botswana voters would go to the polls in good numbers if politicians could improve their outreach to voters. However, Seeletso also saw a ositive development. In his opinion Batswana yoth are beginning to be more involved in the 2009electionsthan they have been in the past. Poliical Parties in Disarray -------------- ¶5. Botswana Democratic Party (DP): During the 2004 general elections, the ruling BDP initiated a system of primaries, often referred to in Setswana as "Di bulele ditswe." However, the primary election process, in which party members from within a given parliamentary constituency or local district vote to chose BDP candidates for office has left many within the BDP unhappy. The BDP held its primaries and chose its candidates for both parliament and local councils before the end of 2008, so that the party would have time to concentrate on general election campaigning in 2009. However, the party is now facing a problem with disgruntled members who after losing in the primaries, choose to turn against the party and to stand as independent candidates. The Chief Executive Officer of BDP, Comma Serema, has said that dealing with members who were dissatisfied with their primary election outcomes has made it difficult for BDP to move on and prepare for the general election. The party's Central Committee is expected to meet in early February to take a strong stand against BDP members who choose to run as independents in the general election against BDP-sanctioned candidates. Serema said however that BDP prospects for the general election remain strong, as the party is reportedly making strong inroads into the opposition strongholds that are mostly in Botswana's urban areas. COMMENT: The high number of registered independent candidates in 2009 has been interpreted by some commentators as a sign of increased democratic participation in Botswana. However, other analysts claim that the rising number of independents simply shows that politicians are selfish and wish to attain or retain office at any cost. Most independent candidates do not articulate any particular policy or ideological platform. Instead they campaign on their popularity/name recognition within their community. END COMMENT. ¶6. Botswana National Front (BNF): Botswana's main opposition party, the BNF, which currently holds 12 seats in Parliament, is in the midst of disruptive internal leadership struggles. Many BNF members are unhappy with the party's current leader, Otsweletse Moupo, and they have called on him to resign. In a sign of his declining GABORONE 00000098 002 OF 002 popularity, Moupo lost the BNF primary for his Gaborone West North constituency to a junior party member. However, Moupo is trying hard to stay in power and is trying to purge party members who oppose him. Nehemia Modubule, the current BNF Member of Parliament (MP) for Lobatse constituency, won the party's primary election in 2008, but was subsequently kicked out of the BNF for his opposition to Moupo. Moupo also tried to oust Akanyang Magama, the party's former Secretary General and current Gaborone South MP, but he took the BNF to court and Botswana's High Court re-instated him both to the party and as the BNF Parliamentary candidate for his constituency for the October general election. (Note: After ejecting Magama from the party, the BNF planned to re-run the primary election his Gaborone South constituency and choose an alternate candidate. End Note.) Newspaper reports indicate that several other influential party members who had called for Moupo's resignation have been kicked out of the party. It remains to be seen whether Moupo or his opponents will retain control of the BNF at the end of the ongoing "civil war," but it is clear that the party will enter the 2009 general election in disarray. ¶7. Botswana Congress Party (BCP): The third party represented in Botswana's Parliament is the BCP, which currently has only one MP, Dumelang Saleshando, who represents Gaborone Central constituency. Though the BCP remains smaller than the BNF, the BCP may be better placed to challenge the BDP in October's general election. The BCP is not suffering from the same internal strife as the BNF, and its organizational structure is considered strong. However, the BCP will only field candidates in just under half of the 57 Parliamentary constituencies in October. Botswana and Zimbabwe Plan Bilateral Meeting -------------- ¶8. Minister of Defense, Justice and Security Ndelu Seretse announced in late January that there are plans for a February 2009 meeting of the Botswana-Zimbabwe Joint Permanent Commission on Defense and Security. At the meeting, the GOB plans to raise issues including illegal border crossings and cross-border crimes. COMMENT: Given the tensions between Botswana and Zimbabwe in recent months, especially over the spurious allegation that Botswana provided military training to MDC activists, this meeting should provide a useful opportunity for both countries to improve communications and reduce tensions. SADC's report on the allegations made by Zimbabwe against Botswana is also expected in late February, according to the GOB. Embassy contacts expect that the report will fully repudiate Zimbabwe's allegations. END COMMENT. Police, Military to Freeze Recruitment in 2009 -------------- - ¶9. Both the Botswana Defense Force (BDF) and the Botswana Police Service (BPS) announced in January that they would freeze recruitment in 2009 as they expected tight budgets due to the impact of the global financial crisis on Botswana. According to press accounts, both the military and police will continue to do some intake of new recruits, but only to replace current staff that have resigned, retired, or died. Defense Minister Seretse also told the press that the BDF will continue to assist the BPS with civil policing, and said that this cooperation has helped Botswana fight crime. COMMENT: The GOB released its FY2009-2010 budget on February 2 and revealed that within its 10.56 billion pula development budget, the BDF will receive 500 million pula ($64.1 million),the BPS 190 pula ($24.4 million) and the new intelligence service the DISS has been authorized 200 million pula ($25.6 million). Some commentators have complained that the DISS is growing too powerful, noting that its budget is higher than the BPS. Post will report more on budget matters septel. END COMMENT. NOLAN