BOTSWANA: SCENESETTER FOR PRESIDENT IAN KHAMA'S

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 GABORONE 000853 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR STATE FOR AF/S, AF/FO LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON KHIV MASS SENV KPKO OVIP BC SUBJECT: BOTSWANA: SCENESETTER FOR PRESIDENT IAN KHAMA'S VISIT TO WASHINGTON NOVEMBER 5-7, 2009 REF: A. GABORONE 665 ¶B. GABORONE 674 ¶C. GABORONE 682 ¶D. GABORONE 754 ¶E. GABORONE 785 Classified By: Ambassador Stephen J. Nolan. Reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Botswana's President Ian Khama visits Washington November 5-7 to chair the Conservation International annual meeting in a confident mood, fortified by a strong election victory on October 16 that allowed him to assume the presidency for a 5-year term. Khama has emerged as a principled, outspoken defender of human rights and good governance in Africa and has been especially tough on Zimbabwe's President Mugabe. Botswana has also begun to project a positive regional influence in assisting some neighbors to train their militaries. On domestic issues such as investing in its people, governance, mineral resource management and civilian-military relations, Botswana is a model for the region. Khama emphasizes the importance of Botswana diversifying from reliance on diamonds (more than one-third of the country's GDP and an estimated 70 percent of export earnings). He spends less time on working with regional colleagues to effect change on political issues, in part because as a career military officer he has little patience for traditional politics and in part because he thinks regional colleagues are not as committed to good governance and transparency. While we value Khama's outspoken approach, we should encourage him to work with like-minded colleagues to shape regional consensus in favor of good governance rather than remain distant from a consensus shaped by others. Khama's visit is also an opportunity to highlight the fact that Botswana is the most stable and reliable friend of the United States in southern Africa, commend Botswana's stewardship of its resources, encourage additional peacekeeping deployments by the Botswana Defense Force, and -- as a prominent environmentalist -- solicit Khama's views on environmental management in Africa. End Summary. -------------- - Newly-Elected President Will Focus on Delivery -------------- - ¶2. (C) Ian Khama is Botswana's fourth President and the son of its revered first President, Seretse Khama. As vice president in April 2008, he assumed the presidency when then-incumbent Festus Mogae resigned. On October 16, Khama led the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) to victory in the 10th consecutive peaceful, free, and fair elections in the country's history. With 53 percent of the vote, the BDP won 45 of the 57 seats in Parliament. President Khama is a no-nonsense and hardworking leader. When he moved into the presidency in 2008, Khama promised he would focus on "four D's" as President: democracy, development, dignity and discipline. After his recent election he added a "fifth D" to the list: delivery. Khama recognizes that the GOB must Qto the list: delivery. Khama recognizes that the GOB must speed up infrastructure and other development projects and ensure that civil servants are more responsive to citizens. ¶3. (C) The BDP holds a large majority in Parliament and should have no trouble passing any initiatives it proposes. However, the ruling party has been plagued by factional fighting over the past several months, and Khama will need to find a way to appease his rivals within the party to avoid obstacles in implementing his agenda. While critics contend that Khama is "authoritarian" or "militaristic," it is more accurate to view him as impatient with traditional politics. President Khama has approved private discussions between the GOB and representatives of the San minority tribe aimed at GABORONE 00000853 002 OF 004 resolving human rights and humanitarian concerns about San residency in the Central Kalahari Game Reserve. Local human rights groups have endorsed this approach and are optimistic that the ongoing private dialogue will lead to an acceptable solution. Khama is temperamentally uncomfortable with the give-and-take of "normal" politics and can be expected to continue to irritate his critics with his governing style. Still, Khama's immense personal popularity as the son of the country's first president will afford him considerable latitude in governing. -------------- -- Botswana's Principled Stance on Regional Crises -------------- -- ¶4. (C) Botswana is consistent and courageous in urging democracy and the rule of law in Africa, especially in Zimbabwe. President Khama has refused to bow to the SADC consensus of "quiet diplomacy" on Zimbabwe and has often spoken out against the Mugabe regime. Botswana provided refuge and moral support to now-Prime Minister Tsvangirai during the negotiations of the Global Political Agreement, and since the formation of the unity government has ceaselessly encouraged full GPA implementation. Khama told reporters in mid-October that the unity government was in "real danger of collapse" and he warned that should the MDC pull out of the coalition, Botswana would not recognize Mugabe as the legitimate President. Botswana has been vocal on other regional crises include Madagascar and Sudan, regularly announcing that Botswana would arrest and extradite Sudanese President Bashir should he visit. In 2008, Botswana voted with the United States on all key UNGA human rights resolutions, in violation of the "African consensus" against single country resolutions, and we expect it to do the same in 2009. Still, Khama has been reluctant to engage in the business of building coalitions within SADC and the AU to create a regional consensus in favor of his positions. He appears to regard such efforts as not worth the time he would have to expend on them, in part because he has a low regard for regional colleagues' commitment to governance and transparency. As a biracial leader of a relatively small country that did not go through a bloody anti-colonial struggle to achieve independence, Botswana faces additional challenges in persuading others of the virtues of its positions. -------------- Prosperous Economy Needs to Diversify -------------- ¶5. (C) Botswana has risen from extreme poverty to middle-income status in only 40 years, thanks to a combination of diamond wealth, good leadership, and sound macroeconomic policies. Botswana's GDP per capita (PPP) is over USD 13,000, but thirty percent of its 1.8 million citizens are living in poverty, many in isolated rural communities. Khama recognizes that diamonds are not forever, Qcommunities. Khama recognizes that diamonds are not forever, and that mineral wealth alone will not improve the living standards for Botswana's poor. Economic diversification is the key to Botswana's future success, and the Khama government is promoting diversification both within the mineral sector and more broadly. The country is attempting to move beyond mining and into value-added activities like sorting and cutting and polishing. A DeBeers-GOB joint venture (the Diamond Trading Center) opened in Gaborone in 2008, and 16 jewelry firms which have opened production facilities here are now able to buy rough stones locally. However, the diamond industry was hit hard by the global economic crisis. Botswana's economy is expected to contract by ten percent in 2009, and many of its new jewelry manufacturers have postponed or scaled back local production, so it is too soon to tell how this new industry will fare. Botswana recognizes that due to its location and small population size, it is not likely to be a traditional manufacturing center, and instead is focusing on developing a service economy. While its high value/low impact tourism is GABORONE 00000853 003 OF 004 its greatest success so far, Botswana has a thriving financial services industry, and is hoping to expand into information technology (perhaps call centers or back office support) and regional medical centers. The Batswana were traditionally farmers and ranchers, and the Khama government also hopes to encourage the agricultural sector and reduce the country's dependence on imported food. Khama is intensely interested in the Administration's Food Security Initiative. -------------- Together Reducing the Impact of HIV/AIDS -------------- ¶6. (U) Botswana is one of the countries hardest hit by HIV/AIDS, but throuh partnership with the United States, we are makng enormous progress to reduce the reach and impact of the disease. Our partnership with the GOB on PEPFAR works because the GOB has upheld its side of the bargain, spending an estimated USD 754 million of Botswana government funds on HIV/AIDS since 2005. In turn, we have invested some USD 390 million since 2005 to support them, implemented through Peace Corps, CDC, USAID, DOD, and the State Department. The strong USG-GOB partnership has encouraged Harvard, Baylor, Johns Hopkins, and the University of Pennsylvania to join us, providing the GOB management and clinical experience, knowledge, and financial backing. The universities also cooperate not only with the GOB but also with the Bill and Melinda Gates, Merck, and Clinton foundations, all of whom are active here. The World Bank and Global Fund lend essential multilateral dimensions and expertise to the fight. The results are astounding: the GOB has virtually eliminated mother-to-child transmission of HIV; over 80 percent of Batswana who need anti-retroviral therapy get it; and new HIV infections appear to be slowing. The struggle remains intense because 24 percent of Batswana are HIV positive and 131,000 people are on therapy. The GOB is redoubling its prevention efforts because it recognizes that to succeed in the long-term, Botswana must significantly reduce the rate of new HIV infections. -------------- Professional, Capable Military -------------- ¶7. (C) The Botswana Defense Force is a capable, professional, civilian-controlled military that serves as a model for the continent. Rather than repress its citizens or threaten its neighbors, the BDF supports civil authorities in the area of anti-poaching operations, border control, and domestic law enforcement. Increasingly the BDF also projects its positive values abroad. Botswana's military training programs for both officers and NCOs are exemplary, and Botswana is offering this training to neighbors. Botswana is willing to host specialized training for SADC militaries, both on special topics such as counterterrorism and as part of the BDF's vibrant State Partnership Program with the North QBDF's vibrant State Partnership Program with the North Carolina National Guard -- commonly regarded as the best in Africa. The United States already has a productive military-to-military relationship with the BDF, and an even stronger USG relationship would bolster the BDF's military effectiveness and its critical civilian support roles, and also have a multiplier effect on military professionalization in other African countries. ¶8. (S) The BDF has frequently participated in PKOs in the past including Somalia, Mozambique and Lesotho. Senior BDF officials tell us that the GOB has offered an infantry battalion to UNMIL in Liberia and is in discussions with UNDPKO. No matter how this turns out, the BDF's most likely commitment, at least in the near term, to peacekeeping on the continent would be to provide airlift. The BDF's tactical airlift capability is easily one of the most effective in Africa. This capability is currently suffering from a pilot shortage that could severely decrease its effectiveness. Increased USG assistance, including through establishing an GABORONE 00000853 004 OF 004 exchange officer program with the USAF, could help to train pilots and equip the BDF for potential PKO deployments. -------------- Environmental Advocates in Africa? -------------- ¶9. (U) Khama is deeply committed to environmental conservation. He serves on the board of Conservation International and plays an active role in its deliberations. Botswana is a semi-arid country that values water conservation; through USAID, we are helping Botswana to partner with its neighbors on sustainable trans-boundary water management in the Okavango and Zambezi river basins. Botswana was the first African country to qualify for Tropical Forest Conservation Act benefits. In 2006, our governments signed an agreement which combines USD 7 million in debt relief with USD 8.3 million for conservation of Botswana's forests, to be administered through a locally created trust fund, overseen by a Board with representatives from the USG and GOB. Botswana's citizens realize that their natural heritage, including the Okavango Delta and Chobe river basin, has enormous tourism potential and therefore economic benefits. The country has chosen a high-cost, low-volume tourism strategy to allow visitors to experience the country's beauty without destroying it. Public education and awareness activities are being undertaken by the GOB and by private environmental organizations, and in the last decade there has been an increase in community participation in natural resource management. Botswana is currently facing an energy crisis, like most of the southern African region. The country currently imports 80 percent of its power from South Africa, and its sole electric plant is coal-fired. Botswana has large coal reserves and plans to expand its coal-fired generating capacity. However, Botswana is also in talks with an independent power producer that hopes to utilize the country's coal-bed methane supply for cleaner electricity as well as eventually cooking gas and other commercial applications. -------------- Unleashing the U.S.-Botswana Partnership -------------- ¶10. (S) As Ian Khama begins his five-year term as the President of Botswana, a peaceful, democratic American friend in Africa, our policy opportunity is how to leverage Botswana's excellent domestic governance and resource management to achieve broader regional goals. We recommend that senior USG officials acknowledge Botswana as a political and economic success story in Africa. We should find ways to publicize Botswana's achievements and promote the country as a model, thereby "rewarding success." Khama has made expanding Botswana's agricultural sector a key priority, so perhaps the new Food Security Initiative is a new area of potential partnership. Second, we should solicit Khama's opinion on ways that the USG could work more closely in Qopinion on ways that the USG could work more closely in southern Africa with like-minded countries such as Botswana. Khama's unique insights into the inner-workings of SADC, for example, may aid our policy planning on Zimbabwe or Madagascar. As a committed environmentalist, Khama may also offer insights on how we can engage successfully African countries on important USG initiatives. Our overarching effort should be to encourage Khama to build upon his courageous policy positions with more concerted efforts to work with regional allies. Botswana has matured politically in recent years and is increasingly willing to speak out against a regional consensus it finds distasteful. Ensuring that Khama is effective in the region as well as "right" on the issues offers considerable potential policy benefits for the USG. NOLAN