Botswana Election Primer

UNCLAS GABORONE 000786 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/S, DRL E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM BC SUBJECT: Botswana Election Primer ¶1. Summary. Botswana will hold its eleventh general election on October 16. Voters in each of the country's 57 constituencies will choose their Member of Parliament as well as candidates for local councils. Botswana's President is not directly elected. Botswana's three main political parties have each nominated Presidential candidates, and the party which wins a majority of seats in Parliament will have its candidate declared by the Chief Justice as the President. We expect results for most Parliamentary constituencies and the presidential race to be announced by October 17, and the next President should be inaugurated on October 19 or 20, and he could announce his cabinet as early as October 21. The ruling Botswana Democratic Party is expected to easily regain its Parliamentary majority and the BDP's Ian Khama should remain President for a 5-year term. End Summary. Parliament -------------- ¶2. Botswana has 57 constituencies, and its members of Parliament are elected individually, not by party list, in single-member districts. The ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) is fielding candidates in all 57 constituencies, while the Botswana Congress Party (BCP) and its allies are competing in 46, and the Botswana National Front (BNF) is competing in 48. There are also a record 14 independent Parliamentary candidates this year, and it is not yet known what role if any the independents will play in the election, as this is a relatively new phenomenon in Botswana politics. ¶3. The ballots for the election of MP's will be counted at the constituency headquarters, while those of council wards will be counted at the ward headquarters. The results of the Parliamentary and council eections will published as soon as the counting is finished, possibly the evening of October 16 or on October 17. The first session of the 10th Parliament is expected to be convened the first week of November. During that session, the new Parliament will choose four specially elected Members of Parliament and the Vice President. (Note: The Vice President and the rest of Cabinet must be chosen from within Parliament. End Note.) The Presidential Race -------------- ¶4. The President of Botswana is not directly elected by the voters. The voters only select the Parliamentary candidate (and therefore party) of their choice, and the presidential nominee of the winning party is then returned as President. Botswana's three main political parties (BDP, BNF and BCP) each nominated candidates for President. The BDP nominated incumbent President Ian Khama, the BNF nominated current MP and leader of the Parliamentary opposition Otsweletse Moupo, and the BCP put forth its party president, Gilson Saleshando. Only Saleshando of BCP will also be a parliamentary candidate, while Khama and Moupo will not run for Parliamentary election. Since the President of the country does not have a constituency, should the BCP win the majority of the 57 constituencies, then a bye-election would have to be held in Saleshando's constituency at a later date to replace him. ¶5. The presidential candidate who was nominated by the political party which wins the simple majority of the 57 parliamentary constituencies during the election will be declared the President of Botswana by the returning officer, Chief Justice Julian Nganunu. The inauguration of Botswana's President usually takes place immediately after the confirmation of the Presidential results. In the past, the inauguration has taken place three days after the Qthe past, the inauguration has taken place three days after the election. On the unlikely occurrence that there is no clear majority party after the election, Parliament would be convened to elect the President. Technical Preparations on Track -------------- ¶6. Botswana's Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) reports that 723,617 voters have been registered for this year's general election. This is a 30% increase over the size of the voter's roll for the 2004 general election and exceeds the IEC's own target of 650,000 registered voters. The Commission also revealed that 243,833 voters are between the ages of 18 and 29, offering hope of strong participation by youth. The IEC says that 56% of registered voters are women while 44% are men. The IEC also has recruited and trained election workers for Botswana's 2200 polling stations. The ballot papers were printed in South Africa and received on September 28, although there were some mistakes with printing of serial numbers on local council ballots which required a reprint. The new council ballots are expected to be delivered to the IEC several days before the October 16 polls. No Surprises Expected -------------- ¶7. The BDP has held a Parliamentary majority since Botswana's independence in 1966, and this is expected to continue after the October 16 election. Most observers expect President Khama to be declared Botswana's next President on October 17, and to be inaugurated in a relatively low-key ceremony in Gaborone October 19. Post will report septel on expected results of the Parliamentary races, including a likely increase in seats for the opposition BCP. HAMILTON