BOTSWANA ON THE EVE OF THE JANUARY 26 SADC SUMMIT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GABORONE 000070 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/S, AF/RSA ADDIS FOR USAU E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/26/2019 TAGS: PREL PHUM ZI BC SUBJECT: BOTSWANA ON THE EVE OF THE JANUARY 26 SADC SUMMIT Classified By: Ambassador Stephen J. Nolan for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs convoked the US, UK, French, German and EU Chiefs of Mission for an urgent meeting on Sunday January 25 to discuss the SADC Extraordinary Summit on Zimbabwe. Minister Seretse said that Botswana will only recognize a Zimbabwean government in which the MDC is given a fair share of power. If a genuine unity government is not formed, Botswana will renew its call for internationally supervised elections. Seretse was somewhat optimistic that Botswana would gain supporters for its position at the January 26 summit in Pretoria and that South Africa would not be able to simply impose a one-sided solution. He also recommended that the international community, especially the United States and Europeans, should bring "direct pressure" to bear for a resolution of the crisis in Zimbabwe. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) The Ministry of Foreign Affairs called on Saturday January 24 to convoke Ambassador Nolan, along with his counterparts from the French, German, British and European Union diplomatic missions in Gaborone, to a special meeting Sunday January 25 regarding the SADC Extraordinary Summit on Zimbabwe January 26. Minister of Defense, Justice and Security (and acting-Foreign Minister) Ndelu Seretse led the meeting, accompanied by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Deputy Permanent Secretary, MFA Director for Africa and Asia, and the Secretary of Defense, Justice and Security (one of Seretse's top assistants). -------------- Botswana's Position -------------- ¶3. (C) Minister Seretse opened the meeting by saying that Botswana's position on Zimbabwe has not changed and that the country's objectives remain the same. If Mugabe honors the September 15 agreement by giving Morgan Tsvangirai and the MDC their rightful place in government and a fair share of power, Botswana will recognize the resulting government. But if Zimbabwe's people are not "freed from their current misery" and no agreement is reached at the January 26 SADC summit in South Africa, Botswana will again call for new elections under meaningful international supervision. Moreover, Seretse told the assembled diplomats that the GOB will regard any Zimbabwean government that does not meet these basic conditions as "illegitimate" and continue to withhold recognition. -------------- Outlook for the Summit -------------- ¶4. (C) When asked about concerns that South Africa may try to use the summit to force a resolution favorable to Robert Mugabe, Seretse noted that there has been a helpful shift of atmosphere in South Africa, with civil society as well as COSATU coming out in support of Tsvangirai and the MDC. Statements by Archbishop Tutu and Graca Machel have helped focus attention on the injustice and suffering in Zimbabwe, increasing pressure on both the South African government and SADC to produce a fair result. Mugabe himself seems to have realized that blocking a visit by the Elders last year was a mistake and has sought to "apologize" for the snub. While Botswana was outvoted by eight to four at the last SADC summit on Zimbabwe, Seretse indicated that Botswana would not be so isolated this time and that South Africa would not be able to impose a one-sided solution. A lot has happened in recent months, and he felt confident other SADC members would be more willing to speak up this time around. ¶5. (C) One of the problems, according to Seretse, has been that SADC has been looking at the September 2008 agreement from an "overly technical" point of view rather than as an ongoing political process. While Zimbabweans themselves must craft an enduring solution, continuing support from SADC and the broader international community will be needed to begin to rebuild Zimbabwe. Without the confidence and trust of both Zimbabweans and the international community, effective government in Zimbabwe will be impossible and the crisis will continue. ¶6. (C) According to Minister Seretse, the GOB believes that GABORONE 00000070 002 OF 002 Mugabe and ZANU-PF have said they will not look at new proposals at the summit. Mugabe has announced that the unity government offer is now "take it or leave it." Seretse also noted that Mugabe has stated that he is open to new elections, however, per Seretse the kind of elections Mugabe would allow (i.e. unsupervised, controlled by ZANU-PF) would be a waste of time. Minister Seretse also commented on the precedent set by the inclusion of ZAPU's Joshua Nkomo into the government of Zimbabwe in the 1980s. The Minister noted how marginalized Nkomo became once he entered into government and warned that this precedent is instructive. According to Seretse Tsvangirai has the Nkomo precedent in mind and therefore he wants power sharing issues to be resolved before he will enter government. -------------- Role of the International Community -------------- ¶7. (C) Seretse said the international community, especially the United States and Europeans, should bring "direct pressure" to bear for a resolution of the situation in Zimbabwe. While cognizant of US and European sanctions, he also said "we must see something more from the leaders of the international community to bring about change." According to Seretse, renewed and outspoken support for a fair resolution of the crisis in Zimbabwe is vital at this time. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) COMMENT: Botswana remains steadfast in its support for either genuine powersharing or new, credible elections as the only acceptable resolution to the impasse in Zimbabwe. It remains to be seen whether the GOB gains any additional support from its SADC neighbors at the January 26 summit. Seretse's optimism may be premature, as SADC has shown repeatedly a preference to sweep Zimbabwe's problems under the rug rather than confront Robert Mugabe. Post is not sure what Seretse had in mind when calling for "direct pressure" from the USG and Europe regarding Zimbabwe. Certainly our sanctions and our diplomatic efforts have brought significant pressure on the Mugabe regime. We are, however, open to new concrete suggestions from the GOB or any other like-minded friends of Zimbabwe about next steps or new pressure points. END COMMENT. NOLAN