BOTSWANA FM BRIEFS ON ZIM, MADAGASCAR, LESOTHO,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 GABORONE 000336 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/S, AF/E ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU BRUSSELS FOR USEU E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/24/2019 TAGS: PREL EAID EFIN KN MA LT ZI BC SUBJECT: BOTSWANA FM BRIEFS ON ZIM, MADAGASCAR, LESOTHO, AND DPRK REF: GABORONE 277 Classified By: Ambassador Stephen J. Nolan for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Foreign Minister Skelemani invited a select group of resident diplomats to a briefing at the Ministry on April 24. Skelemani clarified recent press reports regarding GOB financial assistance to Zimbabwe, explaining that the only support Botswana could offer would be loan guarantees to encourage local private lenders to finance business deals between local entities and Zimbabwe. He also discussed the April 22 visit to Botswana by deposed Madagascan President Ravalomanana, who continues to ask for a SADC brigade to restore him to power. Skelemani and the diplomats briefly discussed the recent unrest in Lesotho, and the Foreign Minister explained that Botswana intends to decline an invitation for President Khama to visit North Korea. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) On April 24, Botswana's Foreign Minister Phandu Skelemani invited a select group of resident Chiefs of Mission for a briefing on Madagascar and Zimbabwe. Skelemani was accompanied by his Permanent Secretary Samuel Outlule, Deputy Permanent Secretary Sesara George, and various other MFA officials. Japan, Britain, Germany, France, the European Union and the United States attended. As always, Minister Skelemani offered candid and colorful comments during the 90 minute meeting, reflecting the frustrations that he and the GOB often feel with regard to the inner workings of both SADC and the African Union. Though he called the meeting to provide updates on Zimbabwe and Madagascar, he also raised North Korea and responded to questions about the attack on the Lesotho Prime Minister April 22. ZIMBABWE -------------- ¶3. (C) Minister Skelemani opened the meeting with a discussion about Zimbabwe. He noted that the local newspapers (and Botswana opposition politicians) had misconstrued the kind of assistance that the GOB plans to provide. Skelemani proclaimed that "we don't have 500 million pula to give or lend to anyone" and said that any budget support from Botswana to Zimbabwe was "completely out of the question." Skelemani explained that the GOB has talked to banks in Botswana and asked them to make available up to 500 million pula (USD 68 million) in lines of credit which can be used by Zimbabwe (presumably the government and/or private companies-- Skelemani did not specify) to purchase goods in Botswana. The GOB, per Skelemani, has told the banks that they are confident that Zimbabwe will pay, but has promised to cover any defaults. Skelemani then repeated that "not one pula will be handed over to Zimbabwe, especially after Central Bank Governor Gono has virtually admitted to pinching funds from private accounts for government use in the past." Skelemani said that Finance Minister Biti seems to believe that Zimbabwe can use these loan guarantees to source many inputs from Botswana, such as inputs for factories. However, Skelemani himself seemed doubtful, saying "what would they buy from us, leather, soda ash, beef, diamonds"? Permanent Secretary Outlule said that the Botswana Development Corporation (BDC, the GOB's investment arm) is interested in finding joint ventures to finance, and BOCCIM (the Botswana chamber of commerce) plans to visit Harare soon to find areas of partnership. (Note: The GOB issued a press statement on its loan guarantees for Zimbabwe April 21. Full text of the statement was emailed to AF/S. End Note.) ¶4. (C) Though Skelemani repeated his call from our last briefing (reftel) for the diplomatic corps to re-engage with Zimbabwe and encouraged visits by our governments to Harare to assess the situation on the ground, he seemed troubled by the continued farm occupations and said that "given this chaos, I cannot sincerely ask anyone to give directly to Zimbabwe." He noted that the GOZ had promised SADC members GABORONE 00000336 002 OF 004 in Swaziland that the farm occupations were not new seizures of land but rather old cases still playing out. However, the GOB now knows that "this was not true." Skelemani said that Deputy Prime Minister Mutambara has confirmed that new farm invasions are underway, despite stated GOZ policy to the contrary. Skelemani, ever the attorney, noted that the unwillingness of the Zimbabwe security forces to put an end to farm invasions raises serious questions about the GOZ's willingness or ability to uphold the sanctity of commercial contracts. He promised that the Botswana delegation which visited Harare last week "delivered serious messages" about the rule of law and sanctity of contracts, and emphasized that the GOB still needs the GOZ to "help us help you." ¶5. (C) Botswana's Finance Minister Gaolathe is in Washington for the World Bank and IMF meetings, and he and the rest of the SADC committee will use the opportunity to put forward the case for assisting Zimbabwe, Skelemani said. When the Ambassadors asked about the status of plans to lobby in other capitals to urge Zimbabwe aid, Skelemani explained that funds simply were not available to engage in that sort of travel. SADC has no pool to pay for this activity, he said, and member states were reluctant to spend their own funds to travel around lobbying for Zimbabwe. ¶6. (C) In response to a question from the British High Commissioner, Minister Skelemani explained that the GOB had never received any response from SADC confirming or refuting Zimbabwe's allegations that Botswana had trained MDC "militants." Botswana Defense Minister Seretse even wrote to Swazi FM Dlamani (the troika chair) to ask for SADC's decision on the matter, but to date no reply has been received. Skelemani noted that the whole affair was simply an attempt by the GOZ to "buy time" and distract SADC from the real problems in Zimbabwe by making spurious allegations. The Zimbabweans never cared about the result, Skelemani opined, as the distraction technique worked when they needed it. MADAGASCAR -------------- ¶7. (C) Deposed Madagascan President Marc Ravalomanana visited Botswana on April 21, accompanied by the Swazi Prime Minister Dlamini. They met with President Khama and SADC Executive Secretary Salomao. According to Skelemani, Ravalomanana continues to repeat his plea that SADC should "give him a brigade" and return him to power so he can "put things in order." Ravalomanana insists that the ongoing demonstrations in Antananarivo are indicative of the support he has on the ground. Skelemani said that the GOB learned during the meeting with Salomao that UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon has allegedly sent a letter to "the disc jockey" inviting him to a meeting in Brussels. (Note: Skelemani referred to Rajoelina as "the disc jockey" through the entire meeting, never once using his name.) Skelemani said that the letter was written in French, and that the GOB has asked the SADC Secretariat to send a letter to the UN to "express surprise" and ask for an explanation. He questioned what the UN aims to do by inviting Rajoelina to a meeting when SADC and the African Union (AU) have agreed not to recognize those who come to power by force. ¶8. (C) Minister Skelemani said that SADC has sent a team to Madagascar to talk to Rajoelina and his soldiers and assess the situation on the ground. He emphasized that SADC's aim is to avoid bloodshed. Skelemani expected that the team would return and report to the SADC Troika in the next week or two, and that after that there would likely be a summit for SADC members to consider the situation and discuss the best way forward. Skelemani emphasized that the GOB (and SADC) position remains clear: whenever there is an attempt to take over a government by unconstitutional means, it must be opposed. He said that SADC is reluctant to use force, but could send in its brigade if left with no other choice. He claimed that if SADC asked the UN and AU for permission to GABORONE 00000336 003 OF 004 send in peacekeepers, they would support it. He emphasized that the SADC team on the ground is supposed to be working closely with the AU mediation team to ensure both organizations are on the same page. ¶9. (C) The French Ambassador stated unequivocally that for President Sarkozy, what happened in Madagascar was a coup. She said that France is disturbed by the reports of increased violence. However, she noted that it is impossible for Ravalomanana to simply go back to the status quo ante, and that negotiation is required to move forward. She explained that a Contact Group has been formed that will have its first meeting April 30 in Addis Ababa. The group will include the President of the AU, Commissioner of the AU, AU Peace and Security chair for the month, all permanent members of the UNSC, all African members of the UNSC, the European Union, the chair of the Francophonie, and SADC. The French Ambassador also noted that there are two "strong personalities" at play in Madagascar and no one wants to lose. She said it was important to convince Ravalomanana that the only way for him to return is via some type of referendum or new elections. Foreign Minister Skelemani replied that he had not heard previously of this new Contact Group, but he expressed skepticism about its effectiveness. He noted the group was large and diverse, and opined that a group led by AU President Qadhafi "won't get anywhere." LESOTHO -------------- ¶10. (C) The diplomats asked Minister Skelemani for the GOB's views on the April 22 attempt on the life of the Lesotho Prime Minister. Skelemani replied that he was aware of the incident from the media, but had few details. He complained that the Basotho, like the Ndebele, "are always quarelling among themselves." (Note: Skelemani's wife is from Lesotho and he is knowledgeable about the political scene there. End Note.) He also noted that SADC had made some efforts to train and "reorient" the Lesotho military and police after previous unrest, but it seems not to have taken root. Skelemani said that the incumbent Prime Minister is popular and would win if challenged at the ballot box, so his opponents are looking for another way to remove him. When asked whether there would be any SADC reaction, Skelemani said that any response must come from the Troika (currently Swaziland, Mozambique, Angola) and quipped that those countries are "not known for their speed." (Note: The Foreign Ministry issued a press statement on April 24 condemning the assasination attempt in Lesotho and calling for the criminals involved to be brought to justice. Full text of the press release was emailed to AF/S on April 27. End Note.) DPRK -------------- ¶11. (C) North Korea recently invited President Khama to pay an official visit, according to Foreign Minister Skelemani. However, the GOB plans to politely decline the invitation. Skelemani quipped that "Botswana wants friendly relations with everybody, but North Korea doesn't fall into the category of 'everybody' right now." He said that "they are rogues and we don't approve of their actions." COMMENT -------------- ¶12. (C) Comment: Though Botswana continues to advocate for increased international cooperation with Zimbabwe, in support of the official SADC position, it is clear that Botswana realizes full well that the GOZ is not yet ready to recieve direct budget support from donors. The initial plans for a SADC committee to lobby donor nations on Zimbabwe's behalf has been scaled back to more realistic proportion, mostly due to budget concerns, but perhaps in part because Botswana and others realized the SADC effort was premature and not likely GABORONE 00000336 004 OF 004 to succeed. Minister Skelemani (a lawyer by training and former Attorney General of Botswana) is clearly troubled by signs that the Zimbabwe unity government has not fully embraced the rule of law, as evidenced by the continuing harassment of farmers and attempts to seize land by ZANU-PF officials. He commented several times during the briefing that he was "astonished" that Zimbabwe's police and military could stand by and let a few rogue individuals carry out land invasions, in opposition to Zimbabwe's laws and stated government policy. The GOB has taken a pragmatic position that support for the unity government is the best hope to bring change to Zimbabwe, but they have made this decision with open eyes and some distaste. Though Botswana will be asking the international community to increase aid to Zimbabwe to meet the real needs of the people, Botswana has not changed its principled stand, and by reminding the GOZ of what changes are needed to "help us help you," will remain a helpful ally in the effort to return democracy and rule of law to Zimbabwe. End Comment. NOLAN