BOTSWANA READOUT ON ZIMBABWE, MADAGASCAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 GABORONE 000277 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/S STATE PLEASE PASS USAID ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/03/2019 TAGS: PREL EAID KPKO ZI MA BC SUBJECT: BOTSWANA READOUT ON ZIMBABWE, MADAGASCAR Classified By: Ambassador Stephen J. Nolan for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Foreign Minister Skelemani spent two hours on April 3 briefing Ambassador Nolan and other Chiefs of Mission on the proceedings of the March 30 SADC Summit. Skelemani was frustrated by the unconstitutional change of power in Madagascar, and he was disappointed that the situation unraveled faster than SADC had anticipated. Though SADC has suspended Madagascar from attending its meetings, the organization has not yet imposed any economic sanctions on the island. Skelemani emphasized that SADC is not ready to send in a peacekeeping brigade, at least not until all other options have been exhausted and the UN and AU are on board. He also opined that Madagascar's geographic isolation and SADC's lack of good intelligence about what is happening on the ground there would make any military intervention dangerous and unlikely to be effective. Skelemani remarked that President Ravalomanana seemed to be completely out of touch with what was happening in his own country, whether in the streets or the barracks. Moving to Zimbabwe, Minister Skelemani was quite optimistic about the unity government. He noted that progress is being made and explained that President Mugabe, ZANU-PF ministers and even the generals are working better with MDC than had been anticipated. However, Skelemani said that Zimbabwe is bankrupt and will require USD 1 billion in budgetary support just in 2009 to function. Skelemani made a plea for lifting of sanctions and increased foreign aid to Zimbabwe, including budgetary support. He also noted that Botswana is part of a new SADC committee that will soon travel to donor capitals and major financial institutions to lobby for support to Zimbabwe. Skelemani was vague about what financial support would be provided by SADC members to Zimbabwe. The assembled diplomats emphasized that our humanitarian aidto Zimbabwe is already signficant and likely to row, but noted that lifting of sanctions is premaure and that direct budget support to the GOZ isimpossible under current conditions. END SUMMAR. ¶2. (C) Botswana's Foreign Minister Phandu Skelemani invited select members of the diplomatic corps to a briefing April 3 to discuss the SADC Extraordinary Summit held March 30 in Swaziland. The American, British, German, and European Union Chiefs of Mission attended, along with the French Charge. Minister Skelemani was accompanied by his Permanent Secretary, Deputy Permanent Secretary, and other staff from the Ministry's Divisions of African Affairs and Europe and the Americas. Minister Skelemani was animated and thorough during the two hour meeting. He shared with the assembled diplomats a colorful and detailed account of deliberations within SADC and presentations by President Ravalomanana and the Zimbabwe delegation. MADAGASCAR -------------- ¶3. (C) Minister Skelemani opened the meeting with a discussion of Madagascar. He said that unfortunately, events had unraveled more quickly in Madagascar than SADC had anticipated. Though they sent Executive Secretary Salomao to see what was happening, before he could assist Ravalomanana had signed a resignation letter. When President Ravalomanana briefed the SADC summit, he asked that a peacekeeping brigade be sent to Madagascar to facilitate his return to power. Skelemani remarked that the President seemed quite out of touch with what was happening in his own country. When the SADC leaders asked him why some 150 soldiers out of an army of 14,000 could force him to resign, he could not explain. He simply claimed that the bulk of the military supported him but were unwilling to use force to back him because they were unwilling to take up arms against their compatriots. According to Skelemani, SADC had no choice but to call upon Andry Rajoelina to hand power back to Ravalomanana because he took power unconstitutionally. However, SADC was not prepared to use force in Madagascar. He noted that Madagascar's geographic isolation and SADC's lack of good intelligence about happenings there (only South Africa and Mauritius even have embassies there, and President Ravalomanana offered no useful intelligence) would make any military deployment there dangerous and unlikely to succeed. GABORONE 00000277 002 OF 003 He also noted that according to a recent protocol SADC must get the concurrence of the AU and UN before committing its troops. ¶4. (C) Ambassador Nolan asked whether or not SADC supports a new election in Madagascar, which has been called for by the AU but wasn't mentioned in the SADC communique. Skelemani said that SADC did not mention elections because Ravalomanana maintains that his government has not been overthrown, therefore no elections are necessary, he should simply be restored to power as the already-elected leader. The Ambassador also asked whether any economic sanctions have been imposed by SADC, and Skelemani responded that economic measures were a possible next step if more pressure is needed. The European Union noted that there had been some discontent in Madagascar when Ravalomanana chose to join SADC, and he wondered whether this would make SADC less credible during this crisis. Minister Skelemani acknowledged it was possible that Rajoelina could decide to simply break ties with SADC. ZIMBABWE -------------- ¶5. (C) The bulk of the two hour meeting was spent discussing the situation in Zimbabwe. The Foreign Minister explained that Zimbabwe Finance Minister Tendai Biti had traveled unannounced to Botswana ahead of the Swazi summit to explain his government's desperation to Botswana Finance Minister Gaolathe. According to Skelemani, the GOZ is completely bankrupt and the Zimbabwe dollar is "dead". Minister Biti estimates that GOZ revenue is USD 20 million/month, but he requires USD 30 million per month just to pay the public service. Both Biti (MDC-T) and MDC-M Minister Welshman Ncube accompanied President Mugabe to the SADC summit, and Skelemani was impressed both with the eloquent pleas made by the MDC ministers for support to the new government and by President Mugabe's praise and support for his MDC ministers. Both Biti and Ncube told the SADC leaders that the new government is making progress and that the JOMIC is dealing effectively with outstanding issues. Although they both said farm invasions are problematic and must be dealt with, Biti and Ncube told SADC that no new farms have been seized, but noted that these properties were previously designated by government for seizure but not acted upon. Biti told SADC that the GOZ needs USD 1 billion in budget support just to make it through 2009, though admitted that this amount would have to come in stages as the government could not absorb it all at once. President Mugabe praised the work of Tendai Biti in only a few weeks and called him his best Finance Minister ever. He commited himself to the rule of law and explained that the JOMIC is working out the final issues regarding allotment of positions (including governors and permanent secretaries) amongst the parties in the unity government. Mugabe admitted that 5 million Zimbabweans are being fed by the international community and that the country's health and education systems have collapsed. ¶6. (C) According to Skelemani, the SADC leaders told Mugabe and the Zimbabwean delegation that "you need to help us to help you." They acknowledged that the donor nations will be reluctant to help Zimbabwe unless SADC notes improvements in the country, so asked that Zimbabwe give them these improvements. One thing SADC stressed, according to Skelemani, is that the farm invasions should stop. Foreign Minister Skelemani says that President Mugabe approached him to "thank him for his attitude" during the summit. Mugabe told Skelemani that "we are glad you (Botswana) are even thinking about helping us." Skelemani says that he told Mugabe "we have been trying to help you all along, even if you didn't see it." Permanent Secretary Outlul opined that the road accident which killed Mrs.Tsvangirai had genuinely shaken all sides of theunity government. He said at that moment, it apeared the whole government could fall apart, but since then, he believes that ZANU-PF and MDC members of government have gone a long way to overcome former mindsets of enmity and find ways to work together. Outlule also noted that the previous fears that the generals would not salute PM Tsvangirai have been overcome. Minister Skelemani also noted GABORONE 00000277 003 OF 003 that the ZANU-PF ministers have been cooperating with Tsvangirai and bringing items to him to get them on the cabinet agenda, rather than running straight to Mugabe as had been feared. ¶7. (C) Botswana and SADC have decided that support for the government of national unity is the only chance for the future of Zimbabwe, according to Skelemani. Therefore, the summit decided to form a committee of the Finance Ministers from Zimbabwe, Botswana, South Africa, Zambia and DRC, who along with the SADC Executive Secretary, will be charged with finding additional financial support for the GOZ. Skelemani reported that the SADC members are supposed to decide by April 15 how they can each assist Zimbabwe. He noted that Botswana really doesn't have any funds to provide budget support, but said that he was exploring other options. He proposed that the Botswana Development Corporation (BDC) might be authorized to help fund some Botswana-Zimbabwe joint ventures in the manufacturing sector and the GOB would also explore encouraging Botswana banks to offer lines of credit to Zimbabwean companies who wish to source inputs in Botswana. Skelemani anticipated that South Africa could be the most helpful within SADC, and that they would likely find a way to offer some assistance through the Development Bank of Southern Africa. ¶8. (C) Skelemani's summary was that "the breakdown of the rule of law is over in Zimbabwe and Mugabe is not going back to his old ways." He told the assembled diplomats that the GOB joins SADC to ask the international community to engage with Zimbabwe. He noted that the GOZ is prepared to welcome visits from foreign governments and that some have already taken place. The diplomatic response was unified and skeptical. The diplomats resident in Gaborone reminded the GOB that the donor community is already providing enormous humanitarian support to Zimbabwe (more than $600 million in 2008) and that our humanitarian aid is likely to continue if not increase. But the Chiefs of Mission also noted that direct budget support to Zimbabwe was simply impossible at this stage, given the GOZ's track record of misappropriating funds and politicizing programs. They also noted that Reserve Bank Governor Gideon Gono would have to be removed before any funds could be given to the GOZ. They welcomed increased diplomatic engagement between the GOZ and western capitals and promised to continue re-assessing both foreign assistance and sanctions when real progress in Zimbabwe can be shown. ¶9. (C) The diplomats then asked Skelemani when the SADC committee plans to visit capitals and requested early notice of the planned dates. Skelemani replied that the program was not yet set, but noted that they hoped to take advantage of the IMF/World Bank spring meetings coming up soon in Washington to make a plea for renewed donor assistance to Zimbabwe. Minister Skelemani also said that he understands that SADC needs to be able to show donors "a clear commitment to certain actions by the GOZ" before the SADC committee travels to European, American, and Asian capitals or the meetings will be pointless. He explained that Finance Minister Biti had returned to Harare and was working to outline for SADC the progress that has already been made and the commitments of the GOZ for additional reforms. In closing, the Chiefs of Mission thanked Minister Skelemani and the GOB for the nation's leadership not only on SADC crises like Zimbabwe and Madagascar but also clear-headed statements on other international problems like Sudan. NOLAN