COUPS RUN THE GAME: SIERRA LEONE BETWEEN A ROCK

C O N F I D E N T I A L FREETOWN 000029

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/W (JHUNTER/ESPRUILL)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL SL
SUBJECT: COUPS RUN THE GAME: SIERRA LEONE BETWEEN A ROCK
AND A HARD PLACE

REF: STATE 1631

Classified By: CDA Glenn Fedzer for reasons 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: CDA discussed reftel demarche topic with
Foreign Minister Zainab Bangura on January 16. Bangura's
response reflected the constant struggle facing Sierra Leone
to maintain democratic principles and regional commitments in
the face of sub-regional threats to peace and security. The
Foreign Minister reminded CDA that Sierra Leone has the
highest concentration of Guineans outside of Guinea, and that
further problems in that country will have a sizable impact
here. The Government of Sierra Leone (GoSL) is thus
advocating for ECOWAS and AU bodies to support Guinea's
stabilization without using economic sanctions or other tools
that may sow further seeds of discontent. The GoSL may find
it hard to maintain this position in the face of
international opposition, particularly if the junta continues
to demonstrate only a rhetorical commitment to civilian rule.
End Summary.


2. (C) In a January 16 meeting, Foreign Minister Bangura told
CDA that the GoSL does not have the option to disengage the
coup leaders, but will encourage them to work through ECOWAS
frameworks. She agreed with Guinea's suspension from ECOWAS,
because "a coup is a coup...there is no such thing as a good
coup or a bad coup." However, Bangura is clearly concerned
that pushing too hard could have deleterious effects. She
mentioned, for example, information suggesting that only 50%
of the Guinean military support the coup, creating the
potential for a counter-coup in the future. She also
mentioned Qadhafi and Wade, saying that pushing Guinea too
hard will force them in the direction of undesirable
influences. With the financial support of Libya, Guinea could
easily turn its back on regional and sub-regional
institutions, and the principles on which these institutions
were built.


3. (C) The Foreign Minister stated that President Koroma
supports the ECOWAS position, and feels that the coup leaders
should be given no more than two years to conduct a
democratic election. Bangura also informed CDA that Koroma is
advocating for Guinea to become a UN Peacebuilding Commission
country, and also told coup leader Camara that "we will do
everything we can to work with you." Bangura seemed
exasperated by the President's words of apparent support,
particularly in light of Camara's cabinet selection, of which
a third are military officers. She hinted that the GoSL had
been told that the cabinet would be consist entirely of
civilians.


4. (C) Comment: Bangura said that the GoSL will not issue
public statements about the Guinean situation before the
upcoming AU Summit. Though the GoSL wants to support
democracy and fears giving the coup leaders a semblance of
legitimacy that could create a precedent for other coups in
the region, their main priority continues to be maintaining
peace and stability in Sierra Leone--and that requires
stability in Guinea. Preserving this appears to require
acting as a quiet advocate on Guinea's behalf in various
fora, particularly on the issue of preserving development
assistance. Preventing another insurgency or a Libyan
ascension of influence is their goal, though the window for
continuing to be seen as both Guinea's emissary and a
champion of democracy is likely starting to close. As the
junta takes provocative steps, such as military cabinet
appointments, that erode credibility with the international
community, the GoSL may feel the need to be Guinea's
apologist in an effort to maintain peace within and across
its borders. Though clearly in an unenviable predicament,
Sierra Leone could some day be forced to choose between it's
hard-won image as a post-conflict country that respects and
preserves democracy and human rights, or publicly aligning
with the coup leaders to ensure that Guinean misfortune stays
in Guinea. Post expects that the GoSL, if pressed, will
choose the latter. End Comment.
FEDZER