UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 FRANKFURT 000088

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL GM
SUBJECT: FDP Keeps Distance from CDU/CSU at Start of Campaign

Sensitive but unclassified; not for internet distribution.


1. SUMMARY: The FDP outlined its national campaign strategy
January 6 for the September 2009 national elections, but did not
clearly signal a strong preference for forming a government with the
CDU/CSU. While both the CDU/CSU and FDP see each other as preferred
partners and the FDP is desperate to return to government after over
a decade in the opposition, the party remains wary of committing to
a coalition with the CDU/CSU, as it did in the last national
election. National leader Guido Westerwelle also laid out his
foreign policy views, as the FDP would most likely gain the Foreign
Ministry should it enter the government, expressing doubt about the
benefits of a missile defense shield in Europe. The FDP argues that
the CDU/CSU has raised taxes in the Grand Coalition and that the SPD
works with the Left Party at the state level, making it is the only
party that has not broken its word to the voters. END SUMMARY.


CDU/CSU-FDP: THE COALITION THAT SHALL NOT BE NAMED
-------------- --------------


2. On January 6, the national Free Democratic Party (FDP --
Liberals) held its annual Three Kings Day party convention in
Stuttgart. Coming in a year of several state elections, a European
Parliament election and a national election in September, the
convention served as the party's initial forum for presenting its
campaign message. National chairman Guido Westerwelle predicted
that the FDP would return to the government for the first time since
1998 after the September 27 general election, but remained silent
concerning future coalition preferences. Before the 2005 general
election, the FDP agreed on a coalition statement with traditional
allies -- the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social
Union (CSU) -- but the parties failed to win a combined majority on
election day, thereby mooting the statement. While a CDU/CSU-FDP
coalition is clearly the FDP's best option to return to government,
Westerwelle's statement reveals a tactical decision to avoid binding
the party to its larger allies too early in the campaign. Several
party members at the convention told Pol Specialist that no
coalition statement will be made as long as the CDU/CSU does not

come out with a clear coalition preference of its own.


3. On the CDU side, Deputy Chairman Roland Koch has taken the lead
on the issue, as he has no role in the federal government and can
speak critically of coalition partner the Social Democratic Party
(SPD). In a recent interview, he said "the Grand Coalition is
exhausted... The CDU and the SPD are antagonists, not partners."
(Note: Koch also faces reelection as Hesse Minister President on
January 18 and has said he will only govern with the FDP in the
state. End Note.) CSU chairman Horst Seehofer initially argued for
more caution suggesting that the parties overplayed their hand in
2005 with the coalition agreement, but reversed his position
following the FDP convention and now recommends a CDU/CSU-FDP
coalition statement. Other voices in the CDU have suggested
pursuing a coalition statement again in order to make the party's
position clear to the voters and it may be only a matter of time
until the CDU reaches out more formally to the FDP. The most recent
national polls put the CDU/CSU at 37% and the FDP at 12%, meaning
that a combined majority is in reach, but not guaranteed.

FDP: OUR WORD IS GOOD
--------------


4. Westerwelle differentiated the FDP from other parties, attacking
the CDU/CSU for failures in its governing Grand Coalition with the
SPD. He argued that the Grand Coalition failed to prepare in good
economic times for the current hard times and raised taxes, which
the CDU/CSU had promised not to do. He also highlighted improving
education, ensuring data protection and lowering taxes for medium
and small income families as core issues for the FDP. CDU/CSU plans
for a post election tax cut remain vague especially in light of the
ballooning deficit caused by the economic crisis. The CDU/CSU
clearly pursues a different policy from the FDP on data protection,
i.e. one that is less protective of the individual than that of the
FDP.


5. The FDP saved its harshest criticism for the SPD, making it
clear that it would be much more difficult for the FDP to enter a
SPD-led government. General Secretary Dirk Niebel attacked the SPD
and the Green Party for entertaining cooperation with the Left Party
at the state level (most notably in Hesse) saying "We did not fight
for German unification to bring communists and socialists back into
power with a red-red-green (SPD-Left-Greens) coalition." Like
Westerwelle, Niebel emphasized the importance of bringing the FDP
back into power to prevent a drift to the left in German politics.
The party has adopted the slogan "Our word is good" suggesting that
all other parties have gone back on promises to the voters.


6. Westerwelle also addressed foreign policy issues, since the
party would most likely gain the Foreign Ministry if it entered the
government and Westerwelle would be the most likely candidate for
minister. (Note: the junior coalition partner traditionally takes

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the Foreign Ministry in Germany. End Note.) He advocated a policy
focusing on disarmament (a traditional FDP cause), and stressed
political over military solutions to global problems. He expressed
doubts about plans to build a missile defense shield in Poland and
the Czech Republic saying the system would divide Europe and unleash
a new arms race.


7. Comment: Having spent over ten years in opposition, the FDP is
desperate to return to government and otherwise may face growing
irrelevance in the political spectrum. Westerwelle's own political
star would diminish as well, although he has achieved some wins for
the party at the state level since becoming chairman in 2001 and has
few rivals in the party. The party has so far proceeded with
caution, avoiding the perceived mistakes of 2005, and leaving itself
the option of conducting an independent campaign, critical of all
parties. Despite this tactical move, the party clearly sees a
coalition with the CDU/CSU as its best bet to return to power. End
Comment.


8. This cable was coordinated with Embassy Berlin.
POWELL