Hesse Election: CDU Stays on with FDP's Help, SPD in

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 FRANKFURT 000167 DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL GM SUBJECT: Hesse Election: CDU Stays on with FDP's Help, SPD in Freefall REF: Frankfurt 0025 Sensitive but unclassified; not for internet distribution. ¶1. Summary: The CDU gained only a marginal victory out of the SPD's disastrous loss in the Hesse election as swing voters gravitated toward smaller parties. CDU Minister President Roland Koch will stay on, but must now share power with the FDP. The CDU-FDP government will also end the Grand Coalition's majority in the Bundesrat, forcing the national government to pay more attention to the concerns of the FDP. National SPD leaders attempted to diminish the wider significance of the local debacle, where the party alienated voters through its failed attempts to govern with the help of the Left Party. End Summary. CDU Back in Business -------------- ¶2. In the January 18 Hesse election, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) came out ahead with 37.2% of the vote (up 0.4% from the January 2008 election),followed by the Social Democratic Party (SPD) with 23.7% (down 13%),the Free Democratic Party (FDP) with 16.2% (up 6.8 %),the Greens with 13.7% (up 6.2 %) and the Left Party with 5.4% (up 0.3 %). Voter turnout was 61%, a historic low and 3.3% less than in 2008. A senior aide to CDU Minister President Roland Koch told Pol Off that he expects CDU-FDP coalition talks to be concluded before the first session of the new parliament on February 5, although the FDP is now likely to demand three ministries instead of two with its better than expected result. The new coalition will end the CDU's caretaker government, which stayed on in power after the previous election yielded no new government. ¶3. The CDU's failure to gain ground was the surprise of the night as recent polls had all indicated the party would do 3-4% better than it did, but those gains instead went to the FDP and Greens. The often polarizing and outspoken Koch, who has been Minister President since 1999, ran an uncharacteristically subdued campaign promoting his party's competency in difficult economic times, but failed to capitalize on the SPD's loss. There are unsubstantiated rumors that Koch will move up to the federal level as Economics or Finance Minister should the CDU remain in the government after the September election, but Koch has so far expressed a desire to remain Hesse's Minister President. FDP Riding High -------------- ¶4. A CDU-FDP coalition in Hesse will end the Grand Coalition's current majority in the federal upper chamber of parliament, the Bundesrat, as the CDU will now have to share Hesse's five votes with the FDP. The FDP will gain a blocking minority, but national FDP Chairman Guido Westerwelle was quick to say that his party would "play a constructive role in the Bundesrat." He has called for closer consultation with Chancellor Merkel on the FDP's concerns. The party may look to implement changes in the federal government's second fiscal stimulus package, which has not yet passed in either chamber. Having also entered the government in Bavaria, the FDP now has two early successes to build on. The FDP's win also gives Federal President Horst Koehler the necessary votes in the Federal Assembly to be reelected this year. SPD Searches for the Bottom -------------- ¶5. The SPD's showing was its worst in the state in the post-war era and an epic collapse from its near win one year ago. Voters voiced clear dissatisfaction with the party which unsuccessfully attempted to unseat Koch's caretaker government twice in the last year by forming a minority government with the Greens supported by the Left Party. After being stymied by dissent from its own members, the SPD reluctantly voted with the other parties for a new election. The SPD ran a doomed campaign, unable to distance itself from Chairperson Andrea Ypsilanti's controversial choice to work with the Left Party. Ypsilanti resigned as chairperson and caucus chief on election night, all but ending her political career. ¶6. Both the Greens and the Left Party emerged from the controversy much better off: the Greens attracted former SPD voters, and the Left cemented its presence in Hesse by entering the parliament for a second time. National SPD Chairman Franz Muentefering said the result was "no index for anything on the national level." However, the national party's similarly low poll numbers suggest that the same tension between its left and conservative wings over issues such as how to deal with the Left Party remains a concern for voters. ¶7. Comment: While high in drama, the election in Hesse was only a minimal boost for the CDU at the start of Germany's super-election year. Local concerns such as Koch's divisive personality and Ypsilanti's failed power grab appeared to play the decisive role in FRANKFURT 00000167 002 OF 002 the mind of voters, rather than national issues. While the SPD faces a much tougher road ahead in the national campaign, the CDU is also not certain that it will be able to end the Grand Coalition and govern with the FDP after the federal election. ¶8. This cable was coordinated with Embassy Berlin. POWELL