COMMUNAL ELECTIONS IN SW GERMANY BRING INSIGHT INTO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 FRANKFURT 001583 DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL GM SUBJECT: COMMUNAL ELECTIONS IN SW GERMANY BRING INSIGHT INTO NATIONAL PARTY TRENDS REF: BERLIN 683 Sensitive but unclassified; not for internet distribution. ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Communal elections in three southwestern German states on June 7 generally mirrored the European election results (reftel),with voters drawn away from the larger CDU and SPD to the smaller parties -- the FDP, Greens, and the Left Party. Bucking the SPD's national slide, , the "Beck Factor" helped the Rhineland-Palatinate (R-P) SPD marginally improve on their 2004 results. In Stuttgart, the Baden-Wuerttemberg (B-W) Greens became the strongest party in a major city council for the first time in German history. Saarland's Greens eked past the 5% hurdle and look poised to play a more decisive role in upcoming state and possibly national elections. End Summary. Independents Dominate in B-W, Greens Surprise in Stuttgart -------------- -------------- ¶2. Independent voter groups (Freie Waehlervereinigungen) remain the dominant political force in Baden-Wuerttemberg communities, receiving 37.9% (+2.4%). Yet B-W's biggest surprise occurred in Stuttgart, where the Greens wrested control of the state capital from the CDU (25.3% to 24.3%),which had been in power there since ¶1971. The Greens turned the communal election into a protest vote against the highly controversial issue of "Stuttgart 21" - a multi-billion euro urban renewal project. Leading Greens celebrated their win in Stuttgart as a "sensation" and admitted that they never expected to become the strongest party. The German media reported June 11 that Greens Party co-Chairman Cem Oezdemir, who recently failed to get a promising position to enter the next German parliament, might now have a good chance to become a Bundestag member by winning a direct mandate through his Stuttgart constituency. R-P Communal Election: SPD Holds On -------------- ¶3. The communal elections in R-P basically reflected the national trend of the European Elections with the notable exception of a minor (but significant in comparison to other areas) increase for the R-P SPD, due to the intense popularity of R-P Minister President (and former SPD national chair) Kurt Beck (SPD). Beck expressed relief that his party has performed far better at the municipal level than at the European elections level. Nevertheless, he rejected any attempts to draw conclusions for the national election in September. The Race Tightens in Saarland, Greens Could Be Swing Player -------------- -------------- ¶4. Saarland's political scene continued to heat up. The CDU dropped 8.7% to 37%, further evidence of its increasingly tenuous hold on the number one spot. The SPD also dropped from 37.3 to 34.7 %. The SPD won 4 out of 5 mayoral elections, prompting SPD caucus chairperson Heiko Maas to claim that the upcoming August 30 state election race will be "neck and neck". The Left Party maintained its position with 10.1, but key is that the Greens received 5.2% (+0.4%) in this election. Combined with the party's Saarland EU election results (also placing them above 5%),there is some indication that the Greens could exceed the 5% threshold in the state elections to become a significant player in coalition discussions. COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The communal elections in Frankfurt's consular district generally mirror the European Parliamentary election results -- losses for big parties and gains for small parties - but the details reveal some important dynamics for the overall political scene. Clearly the efforts of the Grand Coalition to save Opel have not paid off for the CDU and SPD in this prime Opel territory. In R-P, the popularity of M-P Beck may have prevented losses for his party locally, but failed to transcend state boundaries to help in the European election. This suggests that local "star power" will be of limited use to the SPD in September. With Saarland state elections in August, just a month before the national ones, the Greens (if they overcome the 5% hurdle) may be the swing vote to create or block the first red-red based coalition in western Germany. SPD Caucus Chairman Heiko Maas may need to consider forgoing his ambition to become Saarland M-P to prevent the CDU from using a Saarland red-red coalition against the SPD at the national level. ¶6. (SBU) Contacts from multiple sectors complain that the Grand Coalition has caused a watering- down of key ideological positions for both the CDU and the SPD, leading to an "exodus to the edges" evident in Frankfurt district communal and European election results. To stem the outflow of voters, the ruling parties will need to sharpen their message. We expect that in the coming months, FRANKFURT 00001583 002 OF 002 politicians like B-W M-P Oettinger(CDU),who have relentlessly attacked this weakening of the party platform, will feel encouraged to continue their criticism. For the SPD, a local contact confided that a period of time for the SPD as the national opposition party might be just what it needs to redefine its platform and reclaim the "left" from The Left Party. End Comment. POWELL