SPD RECEDES DRAMATICALLY IN TRADITIONAL STRONGHOLD: NORTH

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DUSSELDORF 000039 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL GM SUBJECT: SPD RECEDES DRAMATICALLY IN TRADITIONAL STRONGHOLD: NORTH RHINE-WESTPHALIA REF: DUSSELDORF 36 DUSSELDORF 00000039 001.3 OF 003 ¶1. (U) Summary: Until now, North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) and its industrial Ruhr region were Germany's Social Democratic heartland. No longer. The CDU is now the strongest party in NRW. The Bundestag election returns in Germany's most populous state of NRW, with few exceptions, reflected the national trends, i.e., massive losses for the SPD, moderate losses for the CDU, and big gains for the smaller parties - FDP, Greens and Left Party. Voter participation fell to an all-time low, helping the smaller parties and hurting the big ones, in particular the SPD. The September 27 national elections are also an important indicator of the strengths of the various parties in NRW seven months before next year's Landtag elections. NRW politicians are already telling us they expect the new federal black-yellow coalition in Berlin to take early, decisive action to help shore up the CDU and FDP in NRW as they think ahead to May 2010. End summary. Winners and Losers -------------- ¶2. (U) The Bundestag election produced historic firsts for all five Bundestag parties in NRW -- either the best or worst results ever recorded in the state's 63-year history, depending on the party. In terms of percentage shares of the popular vote, FDP (14.9%),the Greens (10.1%) and the Left Party (8.9%) each achieved their best results ever in NRW since World War II, while the two big parties - CDU (33.1%) and SPD (28.5%) - recorded their lowest Bundestag election returns in NRW since the founding of the Federal Republic. Voter turnout dropped by 6.9 percent to 71.4 percent, the lowest level ever in a Bundestag election in NRW, and only slightly better than the national average of 70.8 percent. The poor voter turnout helped the small and hurt the big parties, in particular the SPD, which failed to mobilize its core clientele in the Ruhr's cities. Increasing Political Fragmentation -------------- ¶3. (U) The strong electoral performance of the FDP, Greens and the Left Party, together with the disappointing results for the big parties, is evidence of increasing fragmentation of the political party landscape in NRW and in Germany in general. The smaller parties continue to grow, at the expense of the larger ones, a trend that started in the 1980s, and has now accelerated. In 1976, for example, CDU and SPD together received well over 90 percent of the popular vote in Bundestag elections in NRW; this share has continually decreased to reach an all-time low in this last election of just 61.6 percent. (On the national level, this was more pronounced, where the figures for 1976 and 2009 were 91.2 percent and 56.8 percent, respectively.) The Left Party's good showing in last Sunday's election also virtually ensures it will enter the NRW state parliament after next May's state election. SPD: A Defeat of Catastrophic Proportions -------------- ¶4. (U) Although its losses across NRW (minus 11.5 percent state-wide) only slightly exceeded those at the national level, the SPD's defeat in its traditional heartland was so devastating that NRW SPD state chair Hannelore Kraft described it as a defeat of "catastrophic proportions." The party suffered massive losses in its previous strongholds in the Ruhr, amounting to 15 percent or more (e.g., in Dortmund and Recklinghausen). Several factors caused this development: The especially low voter turnout in these constituencies was a clear indication that traditional SPD voters, disaffected with their party, stayed away from the polls, and the Left Party succeeded in bringing a sizable chunk of SPD voters into its fold -- it was in the traditional SPD strongholds where the Left Party achieved its best gains in NRW. ¶5. (U) Despite heavy losses, NRW with the Ruhr region remains the SPD's weakened mainstay in the post-election German political landscape. Despite the massive hemorrhaging of votes in the Ruhr area cities, there are no other electoral districts in Germany where the SPD performed better. In Gelsenkirchen, Duisburg, Bochum and Herne, the SPD garnered between 42 and 44 DUSSELDORF 00000039 002.3 OF 003 percent of the popular vote, down from the 55 or even 60 percent it used to poll. With one exception, the SPD won all the constituency races in the Ruhr area, but overall lost 15 constituencies to the CDU, mostly in the Ruhr periphery, as well as in Cologne, Aachen and Bielefeld. The NRW SPD will only send 39 Bundestag deputies to Berlin (in 2005, it sent 54). ¶6. (U) The more prominent losers who will not return to Berlin include Turkish-born Lale Akguen, the SPD's commissioner for Islamic Affairs (and the only SPD Bundestag deputy from NRW with an immigrant background),Defense Committee chairwoman Ulrike Merten, Parliamentary State Secretaries Michael Mueller and Karin Kortmann, and Family Affairs Committee chairwoman Kerstin Griese. Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck and Health Affairs Minister Ulla Schmidt lost their constituency races, but were elected via the SPD state list, as was SPD national chairman Franz Muentefering. CDU: Emerging as NRW's Strongest Party -------------- ¶7. (U) For the first time since 1983, the CDU emerged as the strongest party in NRW, with 33.1 percent of the popular vote, slightly below the national average and 1.3 percent below its state election result of 2005. Also struggling with the erosion of support from core voters, the CDU suffered its biggest losses (up to 7 percent) in its strongholds in rural and Catholic areas, where the CDU had to be content with 42-46 percent (e.g., in Paderborn and in the Muensterland and Sauerland regions). ¶8. (U) There will be 45 CDU Bundestag deputies from NRW (one fewer than in 2005),making the NRW CDU state group ("Landesgruppe") the largest group in the 17th Bundestag. Fifteen are newcomers to the Bundestag, including two former participants in the IVLP program. Most prominent NRW CDU Bundestag deputies won their constituency races, notably Secretary-General Roland Pofalla, Minister of State in the Chancellor's Office Hermann Grvhe, Chief Whip Norbert Rvttgen, Foreign Committee Chairman Ruprecht Polenz, and Deputy Floor Leader Wolfgang Bosbach. Only Bundestag President Norbert Lammert and Junge Union chairman Philipp Missfelder had to use the "safety net" of the CDU state list, because they ran in Ruhr area constituencies which were defended by SPD incumbents. The only prominent CDU Bundestag deputy from NRW not reelected was former national CDU Secretary General Laurenz Meyer. As before, there will be one CDU Bundestag deputy of (Iranian) immigrant background. Strong Showing of FDP, Greens and Left Party in NRW -------------- -------------- ¶9. (U) Twenty FDP Bundestag deputies of the 17th Bundestag will come from NRW, more than from any other German state. The 14 Greens deputies and the 11 Left Party deputies from NRW also constitute the largest state groups within their respective caucuses. The FDP achieved its best results (up to 22 percent of the popular vote) in Cologne, Bonn and the neighboring Rhein-Sieg county. FDP national chairman Guido Westerwelle lost the constituency race in his home town of Bonn, but was re-elected via the FDP state list, as were former Minister of State in the Foreign Office Werner Hoyer and Budget Committee Chairman Otto Fricke. Promising FDP newcomers from NRW include the national chairman of the "Junge Liberale," Johannes Vogel, and Christian Lindner, FDP Secretary General in NRW and until the youngest member of the NRW Landtag, both recent IVLP participants. Among the FDP newcomers from NRW is a member with an (Iranian) immigrant background. ¶10. (U) The Greens' strongholds (up to 20 percent of the vote) were in university cities like Cologne, Muenster, Bonn and Aachen. As before, former NRW Environmental Affairs Minister Baerbel Hoehn, former Minister of State in the Foreign Office Kerstin Mueller, as well as chief whip Volker Beck are among the more prominent members of the Greens Bundestag caucus from NRW. The Left Party garnered its greatest support (up to 14 percent) in Ruhr area cities like Duisburg, Herne and Gelsenkirchen. Sarah Wagenknecht, the leader of the orthodox communist platform within the Left Party, is the most prominent Left Party deputy DUSSELDORF 00000039 003.3 OF 003 elected in NRW. Two of the Left Party Bundestag deputies from NRW have an immigrant background (Turkish and Iranian). Comment: Looking to the Future -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Coming seven months before the May 2010 NRW state parliament elections, NRW's Bundestag election results are an important indicator of the respective strengths of the parties here. The current CDU-FDP government coalition may be able to continue beyond 2010, although with a much narrower parliamentary majority. Much will depend on the political and economic performance of the to-be-formed Merkel-Westerwelle government during its first six months in office. Both Minister-President Ruettgers and his deputy and FDP state chairman Andreas Pinkwart will be members of their national parties' negotiating teams, who will hammer out a coalition agreement between CDU/CSU and FDP within the next few weeks in Berlin. Ruettgers in particular can be expected to use his influence to postpone decisions on possible unpopular measures until after the elections in NRW next May, while pressing for positive forward action from Berlin to show how effective black/yellow can be nationally. As if to make the point, the coalition negotiations between the federal government partners will be held at the NRW State Representation in Berlin. End comment. ¶12. (U) This message was coordinated with Embassy Berlin. WEINER