CANDIDATES STUMP HEAVILY IN GERMANY'S MOST POPULOUS STATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSSELDORF 000036 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL GM SUBJECT: CANDIDATES STUMP HEAVILY IN GERMANY'S MOST POPULOUS STATE OUTCOME "TOO CLOSE TO CALL DUSSELDORF 00000036 001.2 OF 002 North Rhine-Westphalia: A Model for Black-Yellow -------------- -------------- -------------- ¶1. (U) During the last week of the Bundestag election campaign, the leaders of all major parties campaigned heavily in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW),Germany's most populous state with almost 22 percent of the German electorate. With 13.5 million eligible voters, the state has often played a decisive role in tipping the balance in favor of one political camp or the other. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Free Democratic Party (FDP) view NRW, where a successful CDU-FDP coalition ended 39 years of Social Democratic Party (SPD) rule four years ago, as a key state and model for a new coalition in Berlin. Both parties kicked off the final phase of their national campaigns with large rallies in Duesseldorf on September 3 and 6, respectively, when Chancellor and CDU national chairwoman Merkel and FDP national chairman Westerwelle were the key-note speakers at these events. SPD chancellor candidate and Foreign Minister Steinmeier made numerous campaign appearances in NRW's Ruhr region, the traditional Social Democratic stronghold and powerhouse, trying to mobilize the SPD's core constituency. ¶2. (SBU) Post has discussed the upcoming elections with many NRW politicians and political observers in the past month and most describe the campaign as dull and uninteresting. Almost everyone views the election as too close to call, with some predicting a continuation of the Grand Coalition and some a so-called black/yellow coalition (CDU/Christian Social Union-FDP),but all are cautious, having been burned four years ago when the polling did not reflect reality. According to the Greens caucus leader in the NRW Landtag, Sylvia Loehrmann, the party has a fickle and demanding voter bloc, which will not make up its mind how to vote until the final days of a campaign. A leading Greens politician in NRW also expressed skepticism with FDP leader Westerwelle's credentials to serve as Foreign Minister in a black/yellow coalition, given his past overblown assertions about his and his party's prospects for success. No one expects substantial changes in policy, either internal or external, including on Afghanistan, regardless of which of the two major coalition possibilities wins out -- though contacts believe any policy changes would be more likely if Merkel gets her wish and partners with the FDP in a new government, rather than maintaining the status quo in a Grand Coalition. Last-minute Campaign Appearances in NRW -------------- -------------- ¶3. (U) The night before she left for the G-20 summit in Pittsburgh, Chancellor Merkel addressed a crowd of 5000 plus enthusiastic supporters at a September 23 campaign rally in Wuppertal. Her combative speech touched on all the main points of the CDU election platform, including lower taxes, strengthening families, and more money for education. A "flash mob" of around 100 people, including activists of the "Pirate Party," tried to heckle her, unsuccessfully, as she handled the situation with quick-wittedness and humor. SPD chancellor candidate Steinmeier made his final campaign appearances in NRW in the Ruhr area cities of Bochum and Dortmund on September 21 and 22. In Dortmund, supported by Federal Finance Minister (and former NRW Minister President) Steinbrueck, Steinmeier attacked the CDU and FDP, accusing them of planning to carry out "tax cuts for a few, and cuts in social benefits for many" after the elections. FDP chairman Westerwelle will hold his last big campaign rally in his hometown and constituency of Bonn on September 25. Few New Faces: Prospective Deputies from NRW -------------- -------------- ¶4. (U) A look at the NRW state lists of candidates of the various parties shows that all five parties, CDU, SPD, FDP, Greens and the Left Party, are relying heavily on incumbents, with only a handful of newcomers nominated for election. The parties gave the bulk of "safe" slots on the state lists to DUSSELDORF 00000036 002.2 OF 002 incumbent Bundestag members. The most prominent newcomer among the SPD Bundestag candidates is Finance Minister Steinbrueck, who is running for a Bundestag seat for the first time in a constituency east of Duesseldorf, and whose number three slot on the SPD assures him of election. Sven Volmering, NRW state chairman of the "Junge Union," the CDU's youth organization, is probably the best known CDU newcomer with a safe slot. Christian Lindner, the youngest member of the NRW Landtag and FDP Secretary-General in NRW can expect to be elected to the Bundestag, as can Frithjof Schmidt, a former Greens member of the European Parliament and former Greens state chairman in NRW. Sarah Wagenknecht, the leader of the orthodox communist platform within the Left Party, has an excellent chance of winning a Bundestag seat via the Left Party's state list in NRW. ¶5. (U) This message was coordinated with Embassy Berlin. WEINER