TAJIKISTAN: LINKS BETWEEN FOOD INSECURITY AND POLITICAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DUSHANBE 000865

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN, AGRICULTURE FOR FAS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID PHUM EAGR ECON PGOV TI
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN: LINKS BETWEEN FOOD INSECURITY AND POLITICAL
INSTABILITY

REF: A. A: DUSHANBE 774

B. REF B: DUSHANBE 845

C. REF C: O/I FROM DESK TO DUSHANBE, JULY 14, 2009

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1. (SBU) Summary: Tajikistan faces serious ongoing food
insecurity, and the situation may worsen as the year progresses.
While the link between poverty and political instability is not
simple, experts here agree that a decline in the availability of
food in Tajikistan will contribute to political instability in
the region. As families face more problems putting food on the
table, they will find it more difficult to resist the easy
profits of the drug trade. The trade in Afghan poppy is known
to be the major source of income for Afghan terrorists. While
there is no evidence yet to suggest that food insecurity is a
factor behind recent anti-regime activity in Tajikistan itself,
some are concerned that new food problems in traditional
opposition areas may fuel conflict. End summary.



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Food Problems May Go from Bad to Worse

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2. (U) Tajikistan faces ongoing problems with food security and
rising prices (reftel). Some experts are concerned that the
situation -- already precarious for many Tajiks, 53% of whom
live under the poverty line, according to the World Bank -- may
worsen before the year's end. This spring's heavy rains and
related natural disasters may result in low fall harvests,
making it more difficult for families to buy the food they need
to last them through the coming winter. At the same time, as a
result of the ongoing financial crisis, Tajik families are
receiving lower remittances from relatives working abroad,
primarily in Russia. Already money transfers are down over 35%
compared to last year. Tajikistan is more dependent on
remittances than any country in the world; the loss of this
economic lifeline could be disastrous for individual families
and the country as a whole. The loss of jobs in Russia presents
a double-whammy: families are not only losing a crucial source
of income, but they have to feed more mouths as newly unemployed
workers return home.




3. (U) Prices are rising as well. Despite deflationary
pressures, the consumer price index in Tajikistan has risen by
2.8% since the beginning of the year, including 2.1% on food.
Food prices are almost 10% higher than at this time last year.
The price increases have not been distributed evenly across all
products. Wheat flour and vegetable oil have decreased in price
while potatoes and pulses have increased. The single biggest
price rise has been in the Rasht Valley -- an opposition
stronghold during the civil war that has seen a recent uptick in
violence -- where potatoes are now 190% more costly than they
were last month.



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Lack of Food May Fuel Drug Trade

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4. (SBU) While the link between poverty and political
instability is neither simple nor easy to measure, local experts
here say that a decline in food availability in Tajikistan poses
a threat to regional security. A primary pathway is through the
drug trade, which is known to support terrorist activity in
Afghanistan. Tajikistan is the main route for taking Afghan
poppy north into Russia, and the country seizes more drugs than
the other Central Asian states combined. With an average income
of less than US $70 per month, a single drug shipment represents

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an almost unimaginable profit for many Tajiks. The difficulty
is exacerbated by the fact that Tajikistan's 1,344-km border
with Afghanistan is rugged and difficult to patrol.
Furthermore, although U.S. assistance is making progress in
training border guards, conscripts continue to be underpaid --
earning as little as $3 a month -- and undernourished. Many of
those on front line border posts spend most of their time
scavenging for food, leaving relatively little time and energy
to patrol the border. For those facing difficulty simply
putting food on their plates, we frequently hear that
involvement in the drug trade, even if it is turning a blind eye
in exchange for a small consideration, can be difficult to
resist.



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And May Fuel Local Violence as Well

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5. (SBU) Although some Tajik migrant workers are remaining in
Russia in the hopes of finding new work, others are returning
home. Last winter we noticed that migrant men made their
seasonal return without the gifts and savings they have brought
in the past, leaving their families to face the most difficult
season without this critical assistance. The worsening economic
climate has frayed tempers: a few months ago we witnessed a
shoving match break out at a food distribution between returning
migrants and local authorities over how the food was
distributed.




6. (SBU) Many of the areas hardest hit by the drop in
remittances and rising prices were opposition strongholds during
the civil war. For example, the former Food for Peace program
worked in the Rasht Valley, where according to reports an armed
group -- including fighters from Pakistan and Afghanistan -- is
currently operating (ref B). Recent skirmishes in and around
the town of Tavildara, south of Rasht, have begun making
international news, causing some to speculate that Tajikistan
may be entering a period of renewed instability. In mid-July,
police officers manning checkpoints along the road through the
Rasht valley came to the local office of USAID food assistance
implementer Mercy Corps and asked to be given food in exchange
for "guarding" their offices. Mercy Corps declined to take part
in the nascent protection racket. (Comment: It is unlikely the
police officers would have approached an International NGO with
this request unless they were motivated by actual lack of food.
It is noteworthy that this comes in mid-summer when food is much
more available than in winter. Hungry law officers potentially
could complicate an already tense situation in the area. End
comment.)




7. (SBU) According to Michael Jones, the UN Resident
Representative in Tajikistan, who has worked for twenty-five
years on food aid, the link between food insecurity and
political instability, while complicated and difficult to
measure, is nevertheless taken for granted by most experts.
Indeed, he said, he has worked in numerous countries where
governments deliberately sought to quell anti-regime activity by
delivering food assistance to targeted regions. He said that a
carefully-crafted food distribution program might achieve the
same results in Tajikistan. Such a program he said, should
require buy-in from beneficiaries, whether cash payments or
in-kind work contributions, and work toward self-sustainment by
providing beneficiaries with skills and inputs for future
income-generating activity. Tajikistan is lucky in some ways,
he said, because the abundance of rivers provides a ready source
of energy and irrigation water for agriculture. Agricultural
development is important not only as a source of income, but to
reverse the current trend in which Tajikistan produces less and
less of its own food needs.

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8. (SBU) Comment: While no strong evidence has yet emerged to
directly link food insecurity with the spate of anti-regime
attacks in Tavildara and elsewhere, the government's failure to
ensure that its citizens are adequately fed could fuel the
violence, by adding another grievance to longstanding complaints
about being excluded from power and giving anti-regime forces a
rallying cry and message for recruitment. For this reason,
observers here worry that the growing poverty in these regions
may be a factor that heightens the conflict. Less tenuous is
the relationship between poverty and involvement in the drug
trade. While the key factors there are supply in Afghanistan
and demand in Russia, the involvement of Tajik middlemen helps
terrorism and instability in the region.

End comment.
JACOBSON