MORE INDICATIONS THAT TAJIKISTAN'S ISLAMIC PARTY IS AT A

C O N F I D E N T I A L DUSHANBE 000703 SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/5/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM TI SUBJECT: MORE INDICATIONS THAT TAJIKISTAN'S ISLAMIC PARTY IS AT A CROSSROADS REF: A. (A) 09 DUSHANBE 423 ¶B. (B) 09 DUSHANBE 509 CLASSIFIED BY: Tracey Jacobson, Ambassador, EXEC, DOS. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Mahmadali Hait and Vohidkhoni Qosiddin, Deputy Chairmen of the Islamic Revival Party of Tajikistan (IRPT), maintain that their party ranks continue to grow because of the government's unpopularity, but there are still questions about their ability to lead an effective opposition party. The party has responded weakly on key issues, such as the new religion law, the banning of hijabs and electoral reform, and it may lose its two parliamentary seats in upcoming elections. End summary. ¶2. (C) At a June 3 meeting, PolOff spoke to Mahmadali Hait and Vohidkhoni Qosiddin about the upcoming parliamentary elections in February 2010. All indications are that the elections will be highly flawed, and that the government will manipulate the results (reftel A). Hait said that the IRPT's ranks continued to grow, and that the party enjoyed significant support among the voting population. However, the United States and the rest of the international community must "guarantee that the elections will be fair" by, for example, forcing the Tajik Government to pass a new election law. Even if the party lost its parliamentary seats, "we will keep our electorate." Western countries, however, were reluctant to support the IRPT because "it is an Islamic party." ¶3. (C) The IRPT has not been proactive on key issues. IRPT Chairman Kabiri was out of the country when the religion law passed and the IRPT did not hold a news conference about the law until after the law went into effect. The IRPT has not supported women who were expelled from universities for wearing hijabs. The party has been relatively quiet on electoral reform. Hait and Qosiddin reiterated that the party continued to grow, and that in the long run, it would benefit from unpopular government policies, since the people know who was responsible. ¶4. (C) Just prior to the IRPT meeting, PolOff spoke to Hoji Akbar Turajonzoda, an independent representative in parliament's upper chamber and an IRPT ally (although not a member). Turajonzoda did not directly criticize the IRPT, but he did say that he expected it to lose its parliamentary seats in the February elections. He referenced the amount of time that Party Chairman Kabiri spent outside of the country; he specifically mentioned that while attending a conference in Turkey, Kabiri gave an hourlong interview to Al Jazeera in which he criticized the Tajik Government's religious policy. ¶5. (C) While there has been speculation that the IRPT receives significant funding from outside of Tajikistan, we have not been able to corroborate any specifics. However, in a private conversation, IRPT spokesman Hikmatullo Saifullozoda said if the party lost its parliamentary seats in the February election, "we will not be paid." ¶6. (C) Comment: Post has reported that the IRPT's leadership has been weak or compromised, and that the government's religious policy and upcoming elections pose significant challenges to the IRPT's relevance (reftels A and B). Hait and Qosiddin gave us no reason to think the IRPT will take a more active approach to key issues that define it as a party, or if there is any internal debate about its direction. Hait seemed to be reciting talking points. It is still unclear how much public support the IRPT has. If the IRPT loses its parliamentary seats, however, it will be much more difficult to claim to be a viable political force. IRPT Chairman Kabiri is clearly aware that the upcoming elections could have serious consequences for the party's financial situation. End comment. JACOBSON