OPPOSITION PARTY LEADERS TELL BOUCHER THERE IS LITTLE HOPE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 000509

SIPDIS

STATE DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/27/2019
TAGS: EAID ECON PREL PGOV PHUM TI
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION PARTY LEADERS TELL BOUCHER THERE IS LITTLE HOPE
FOR DEMOCRATIC REFORM

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CLASSIFIED BY: TRACEY A JACOBSON, AMBASSADOR, EXE, DOS.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)

1. (C) Summary: Three leaders of opposition political parties
told South and Central Asia Assistant Secretary Boucher they had
little hope for the development of democratic government in
Tajikistan, then tried to blame this on lack of support from the
United States Government. They offered no plans to change the
situation themselves. End Summary.




2. (C) Boucher met with Islamic Revival Party of Tajikistan
Chairman Muhiddin Kabiri, General Secretary of the Democratic
Party of Tajikistan Rahmatullo Valiev, and Chairman of the
Social Democratic Party of Tajikistan Rahmatillo Zoyirov at the
Embassy on April 21.



COMPLAINTS AND DELUSIONS OF GRANDEUR




3. (C) All three party leaders delivered prepared remarks to
Boucher, somewhat defeating the intended informal and private
atmosphere of the event. All complained that they had
previously enjoyed warm relations with the United States Embassy
and had received support from the United States Government, but
in recent years this relationship had ceased. They also
criticized the international community for what they perceived
as rhetorical support for Rahmon. Valiev commented that the
results of the National Bank audit showed that aid money only
fed corruption. He complained that the United States and other
countries paid much attention to Afghanistan when, he claimed,
there was less political freedom in Tajikistan. He added that
Boucher should have met with the political party heads before
meeting President Rahmon, so they could convey their concerns
prior to his official meetings.




4. (C) Zoyirov expected no breakthroughs toward democracy,
saying the government had lied for the past ten years by
claiming it intended to reform the election law. He favors
legal and peaceful actions to change the government, but it is
now harder to restrain Tajiks from illegal and violent action,
he said, and a revolutionary situation is taking root as
Rahmon's control is slipping. He asked whether the United
States Government had any position on the political problems in
Tajikistan.



DREAM OVER




5. (C) Kabiri of the Islamic Revival Party agreed with
everything Zoyirov said, and adding that while political parties
in Tajikistan need assistance, they no longer have any "romantic
illusions" about strong outsider support. The five Central
Asian republics have convinced the United States that secular
authoritarian governments are the only option to support,
because there is no alternative save radical Islamist
governments. No one in the region believes in the possibility
of moderate leaders, leaving the field to extreme secularists
and extreme Islamists, both of whom are growing in influence.
Tajik youth see no prospects for change through elections, so
seek extremist solutions.




6. (C) Boucher replied to these concerns by emphasizing that he
raised electoral reform and corruption with the President, and
that the embassy is supporting democracy through its advocacy
and cooperation with the OSCE, and USAID programs. Noting that
the United States Government does not give money directly to the
Government of Tajikistan, he said that elections are a chance
for us all to push for issues of common interest. He asked what
the parties are doing themselves to improve the conduct of
elections and expand their influence. Only Kabiri offered an
answer, saying the Islamic Revival Party is ready to place
monitors in every polling station. But he wondered whether
doing so would be a waste of money, if the results are fixed
anyway. He said government rhetoric is unhelpful, as President
Rahmon in his recent annual address to the nation called on
political parties to put "national interests" above the
interests of the parties or "foreign bosses." He predicted that
the only change likely in Tajikistan is a narrowing of political

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space under increased government pressure. Kabiri wishs for the
return of the National Democratic Institute to Tajikistan, to
strengthen independent political parties.



COMMENT: FOLD EARLY AND FOLD OFTEN




7. (C) The only politician present from a party with seats in
parliament, Kabiri, was not forward leaning about changing
election laws or practices, seeming to accept defeat in advance,
despite his party's possession of two parliamentary seats and
claims to tens of thousands of members. His performance did not
dispel our impression of him as an inactive party leader. His
colleagues were equally negative, and represent organizations
with a few thousand members at best and little hope of ever
coming back into parliament. None elaborated on ways their
parties might take advantage of the current situation to
strengthen their positions.




8. (C) Comment Continued: Perhaps more interesting were the
circumstances of the two invitees who did not attend this
meeting: Hoji Akbar Turajonzoda, former Deputy Prime Minister,
current member of the upper house of parliament, former top
religious official, and an opposition figure in the civil war,
told Embassy he could not attend because he did not wish to
invite an increase in the already heavy pressure he and his
family were feeling from the government due to his denunciations
of the new law on religion (septel describes Foreign Minister
Zarifi's allegations that Turajonzoda was scheming to establish
an Islamic state). Turajonzoda is reputedly wealthy, and the
Government may know how to hurt him, as it could hurt allegedly
wealthy Muhiddin Kabiri. The other no-show was Shodi Shabdolov,
whose Communist Party has three seats in parliament, and 3-4
other independent members of parliament voting with them.
Shabdolov has in recent months taken vocal stands against some
government policies, suggesting the Communist Party is becoming
more active. But at the last minute he told the embassy by
telephone that he had forgotten about the meeting with Boucher,
and could not drive over in time. End Comment.




9. (U) Assistant Secretary Boucher cleared this cable.
JACOBSON