A SLIGHT WARMING IN TAJIK-UZBEK RELATIONS?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 000224 SIPDIS STATE DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/23/2019 TAGS: PREL UZ TI SUBJECT: A SLIGHT WARMING IN TAJIK-UZBEK RELATIONS? REF: DUSHANBE 146 CLASSIFIED BY: Tracey A. Jacobson, Ambassador, EXEC, DOS. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The meeting of an Uzbek-Tajik intergovernmental commission appears to have been a qualified success, with agreements on some of the power and water issues that have been dividing the two countries. This should pave the way for renewed transit of Turkmen electricity to Dushanbe. But will this mini-rapprochement last? End Summary. ¶2. (C) During a February 20 meeting, Foreign Minister Zarifi told the Ambassador that the recent Tajik-Uzbek Intergovernmental Commission held February 18 in Dushanbe was positive. The meeting had taken seven years to finally occur, during which time the relationship was "stagnating." The Commission signed two agreements, one on water/energy and one on border delimitation, which Zarifi expected to be ratified by both parliaments within 10 days. After that, Uzbekistan would permit the transit of Turkmen electricity to Tajikistan. The Ambassador asked whether the Commission had taken up the issue of the Farhat water facility in the north - the Tajik and Uzbek sides both claim ownership and the border there is not delimited. Zarifi said this issue was "too complicated" and that the Commission had agreed to refer it to experts later in the year, moving ahead on other issues. Zarifi said President Karimov had even said Uzbekistan would be willing to participate in the construction of the Rogun hydropower station, a major sore point between the two countries. ¶3. (C) Embassy staff spoke on February 20 with the Uzbek Consul in Dushanbe, Murodil Abdurazzakov, who confirmed the commission meeting results in outline as related by FM Zarifi, including the near-term resolution of Turkmen energy transit. He said the joint commission would meet again later this year in Tashkent. Abdurazzakov specifically denied that the commission had discussed the Rogun dam project at all. ¶4. (C) During a February 19 meeting, UN Regional Preventative Diplomacy Center head Ambassador Jenka told the Ambassador about his meetings February 16 in Tashkent and his February 19 meetings in Dushanbe. He said Uzbek Foreign Minister Norov told him Karimov was indeed ready to support Rogun, provided two conditions were met - an independent feasibility study must be conducted, and water flows downstream must not be reduced. Later, Zarifi assured Jenka that Tajikistan could meet both of these conditions. ¶5. (C) This apparent progress was a main topic at a lunch for EU Heads of Mission, Ambassador Jenka, OSCE Conflict Prevention Center Head Ambassador Salber, and others February 20. While Jenka was cautiously optimistic about the possibility for forward movement, he did note that feasibilities studies "can take up to 10 years." Salber was somewhat less sanguine, insisting that the water situation in the region "was not yet bad enough to lead to a realization that cooperation was the only way forward." Salber further noted that with feasibility studies, "you get the results you pay for." ¶6. (C) According to its Tajikistan Country Director, Chiara Bronchi, the World Bank is actually underwriting three separate feasibility studies for Rogun: one on the project's technical aspects, one on the environment, and a final one on human/social aspects. She said that the projects would be put out to bid by the end of this month and should be completed within a year. However, The World Bank head in Tashkent told Jenka that the Bank was only financing a pre-feasibility study. In any case, the real challenge will be in getting a feasibility study in which the terms of reference and contractor are acceptable to all parties. The UN Preventative Diplomacy Center in Ashgabat plans to host a conference on the legal bases for water sharing, with relevant examples, in April. Salber said the number of conferences on water "now numbers in four figures" and that only a new political will on the part of regional leaders would result in progress. DUSHANBE 00000224 002 OF 002 ¶7. (C) Comment: This apparent mini-rapprochement between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan comes of the heels of near-simultaneous irritation with Russia on the part of Karimov and Rahmon. Rahmon was angered by President Medvedev's comments on water sharing in Tashkent last month (reftel); according to multiple sources, Karimov also was not pleased that Medvedev promised "not support for hydropower projects without coordination with downstream countries," and only a few days later made a deal with Kyrgyzstan to finance Kambarata-1. This common resentment of Russia may have helped pave the way for a heart-to-heart conversation between Rahmon and Karimov in Moscow. Whether this new- found fellow-feeling lasts beyond Rahmon's February 24 working visit to Moscow remains to be seen. End Comment. JACOBSON