RAHMON INVITES AMBASSADOR TO "SEND A SIGNAL"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 000154 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2019 TAGS: PREL RS TI SUBJECT: RAHMON INVITES AMBASSADOR TO "SEND A SIGNAL" REF: DUSHANBE 146 Classified By: Ambassador Tracey A. Jacobson, reason 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C)Summary: For the first time during her two-and-a-half year tour, Rahmon invited Ambassador for a one-on-one meeting. He briefed Ambassador on: -- the argument with Russia over President Medvedev,s statement in Tashkent on water management, -- his recent visit to Moscow and Russian "horse trading" in the region aimed at increasing Russian economic and military influence, and --his willingness to fully support transit of commercial goods through Tajikistan to Afghanistan. He hinted that commercial transit could lead to other opportunities, "considering complications at Manas." He asked that we influence the World Bank to speed up its feasibility study for development of the Roghun hydropower plant, that we accelerate our own feasibility study for development of coal at Yagnob, and that we seriously consider the Tajik proposal for an additional br1XQqP\zLv}with Russia over Medvedev,s comments in Tashkent. Rahmon had called Medvedev during his visit to the Uzbek capital to ask his help in influencing the Uzbeks to allow the transit of Turkmen electricity to Tajikistan. "Instead he did the opposite ) calling for all hydropower projects to be developed only with the consent of the affected neighbors." Rahmon handed Ambassador a copy of the transcript of the Karimov-Medvedev press conference of January 23, in which he claimed Medvedev was trying to frighten everyone with the possibility of war over water between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. (Note: the actual transcript refers to deciding questions about hydropower through economic and political means, "not to mention more dangerous directions or means of solving disagreements.") Based on Medvedev,s press conference, Rahmon initially decided to cancel his planned meetings in Moscow, "but they continually approached me through various channels so in the end I went ) but for my own purposes." He said Medvedev pushed him to sign an agreement giving Russia 75% of the shares in Roghun "so they could control everything." Rahmon declined. He described a EURASEC meeting in which Russia demonstrated its intention "to accelerate the process of increasing its military and economic influence in Central Asia, including trading with Bakiev on Manas." Rahmon claims he strongly criticized Russian policy, noting that it had led to decreQWT