TAJIKISTAN - H1N1 SITUATION, INFORMATION SCARCE

UNCLAS DUSHANBE 001457 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: SOCI EAID KFLU CDC WHO TI SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN - H1N1 SITUATION, INFORMATION SCARCE ¶1. (SBU) Summary: About one fourth of all people in Tajikistan will contract influenza by February 2010, according to a World Health Organization (WHO) Adviser. This number includes all forms of influenza, not just H1N1. In a worst-case scenario, about 1,000 of those infected would die. There is little hard data on the extent of influenza infection around the country, H1N1 or otherwise, and the government has little ability to respond to the pandemic. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) A small number of H1N1 cases, but no deaths, have been confirmed in Tajikistan but hard data is limited. By extrapolating from infection rates observed in other countries, Liduvina Maria Gonzalez Venero, WHO adviser to the Ministry of Health of Tajikistan, predicted that 1.4 million people in Tajikistan (out of a total resident population of about 6 million) would contract either H1N1 or seasonal influenza by February 2010. At most, 1,000 people in Tajikistan would die of influenza during this winter, according to her estimate. On December 23, Gonzalez said that transmission of these diseases was at its peak in Dushanbe now. DATA DIFFICULT ¶3. (SBU) Gonzalez said that there is no reliable data on the influenza pandemic in Tajikistan. The government did not keep records on influenza infection rates in past years, so there is no historical context to compare to this year's rate. Administrations around the country also were reporting many deaths as being the result of influenza which were from different causes, inflating infection figures by an unknown amount. She thought this excessive false reporting of flu deaths was the result of hype surrounding the spread of H1N1. Gonzalez noted that the one "confirmed" death from H1N1 reported in local media was actually caused by seasonal influenza. Eight other deaths are under investigation. Investigations would be slowed because laboratory testing supplies had run out in Tajikistan for the time being. SUPPLIES DIFFICULT ¶4. (SBU) Gonzalez described the uneven nature of response to the influenza pandemic around the country. Each district had an infectious disease hospital, but ill people were going to district general hospitals, which usually misdiagnosed and over reported influenza infections. At the provincial level there are hospitals with Intensive Care Units and training to operate them, but district hospitals are not transferring needy patients to the provincial hospitals. Some areas had better supplies and equipment than others. Gonzalez cited Khorogh (Gorno-Badakhshan's capital) in particular as an area hard hit by influenza every winter, but totally lacking in appropriate equipment or medicines. She is urging the Minister of Health to distribute medicine and equipment to areas outside Dushanbe, rather than keep supplies for the pandemic centralized. Dushanbe is the other hardest-hit area of the country, but is better equipped to deal with the situation. ¶5. (SBU) In mid-January H1N1 vaccines will begin to arrive in Tajikistan in several shipments, which would eventually be enough to vaccinate 10% of the population. There is virtually no seasonal flu vaccine available in Tajikistan. H1N1 vaccine would go to health workers and others most at risk from infection, Gonzalez said. She said that the government of Tajikistan was not hiding information from the public or from donors about the seriousness of the pandemic, but that the government simply lacked information. GROSS