TAJIKISTAN SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF GENERAL DAVID PETRAEUS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 08 DUSHANBE 001156

NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/19/2019
TAGS: PREL EAID ECON MASS PGOV PHUM TI
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF GENERAL DAVID PETRAEUS

CLASSIFIED BY: KENNETH E GROSS, AMBASSADOR, EXEC, DOS.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)

1. (SBU) Embassy Dushanbe welcomes the upcoming visit of General

Petraeus, and provides the following overview of recent
developments and key issues in Tajikistan. Since your last
meeting with President Rahmon on January 17, Rahmon met with
Assistant Secretary of State Boucher in April and Assistant
Secretary of State Blake in July in Dushanbe. He also met with
Special Representative Holbrooke and Secretary Clinton at the
United Nations General Assembly in September.



KEY GOALS FOR YOUR VISIT



Rahmon will be most interested to hear of U.S. plans for
Afghanistan and will press you for greater benefits for
Tajikistan in return for its cooperation and support on
Afghanistan. The Tajiks believe Uzbekistan is trying to keep
all NDN related business for itself; they want more traffic to
transit Tajikistan, more infrastructure to be built to support
that traffic, and the United States to purchase Tajik bottled
water and farm produce for forces in Afghanistan.




2. (C) The mission's key goals for your visit are to:



-- Help you to solidify your relationship with President Rahmon

and his security officials.



-- Reiterate our appreciation for support with overflight

access. It greatly assists our efforts in Afghanistan.



-- Secure Rahmon's agreement to accept transit of lethal

materials to Afghanistan through Tajikistan.



-- Press Rahmon for further economic and political reforms in

the run-up to the February 2010 parliamentary elections.



INTERNAL RIVALS, MILITANT GROUPS, AND SUMMITRY




3. (C) The Tajik civil war ended with a power sharing

arrangement between Rahmon's government and the leaders of

various elements of the United Tajik Opposition (UTO). Since

then, Rahmon gradually has reneged on this deal

and forced oppositionists out of government into prison, out of

the country, or they have died mysteriously. In May 2009 an
armed group led by a former UTO figure, Mullah Abdullo Rahimov,
returned to Tajikistan from Afghanistan, reportedly with several
foreign fighters. Tajik security forces eventually neutralized
this group without outside assistance. In doing this, the
preeminent former opposition figure (and former minister in the
postwar government) Mirzo Ziyoev was killed. The government
claims militants killed Ziyoev when he tried to persuade them to
surrender to the government, but there is evidence government
forces murdered him. This leaves only one former opposition
leader still in the government.


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6. (C) Russian-Tajik relations have deteriorated over the past
several years. The two governments could not agree on the terms
of Russian involvement in Tajikistan's preeminent unfinished
infrastructure project, the Rogun Dam, and they have a variety
of other differences, some minor and some major. In October
President Rahmon approved legislation downgrading the status of
the Russian language in Tajikistan. His government is now in
discussions with Russia on the possible payment of rent by
Russia for its military bases in Tajikistan. Many Tajiks
believe the Russians in some way supported Mullah Abdullo's
group in order to send a menancing signal to Tajikistan.
President Rahmon will have just returned from a state visit to
Moscow when you see him.



Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Karasin was in Dushanbe on
October 16 and met with Ambassador to ask whether the United
States was placing military forces on the Tajik border with
Afghanistan. Ambassador assured Karasin this was not true, but
the episode shows the Russians are worried about their military
relationship with Tajikistan, which they consider a vital
Russian security interest, and will give credence to Tajik
threats to seek other security partners.





SECURITY COOPERATION




7. (C) Security cooperation remains a strong point in our

relationship with Tajikistan. The Ministry of Defense

volunteered this year for the first time to host CENTCOM's

Exercise Regional Cooperation, which concluded 10 August.

Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan participated in the

disaster response exercise. CENTCOM and the Tajik Armed Forces

held Consultative Staff Talks in May and established the FY 2010

Security Cooperation Plan. The plan reflects Tajikistan's

increased interest in demining and participation in the Global

Peace Operations Initiative (GPOI). The U.S. Army Humanitarian

Demining Research and Development Office will provide Tajikistan

a mechanical demining machine for field evaluation in FY10 with

a planned FMF purchase in FY11. Tajikistan reconfirmed its
commitment to deploy a company sized peacekeeping unit in 2011
with GPOI support. CENTCOM sponsored development of
Tajikistan's National Peacekeeping Policy White Paper in August,
which is now being staffed through the Tajik interagency process
for Presidential approval. Tajikistan is scheduled to begin
staff and unit training in the 2nd and 3rd QTRs FY10. Letters
of Request for $2.5 million for this training have been approved
and are now in the Letter of Offer and Acceptance development
stage. However, the Office of Defense Cooperation is concerned
with reluctance on the Tajik MoD's part to facilitate regular
engagement with the unit designated for Peacekeeping Operations.







8. (C) CENTCOM Counter Narcotics: CENTCOM's Counter Narcotics

program is making strong contributions to Tajikistan's security.


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Your last visit helped expand CN's engagement by establishing a

permanent DoD contracting officer in Bishkek to support the

Central Asian States. This year, $16.9M in funding recently

approved in the Supplemental Bill will support construction of

an interagency National Training Center, infrastructure at the

Nizhny Pyanj Point of Entry, and communications equipment. The

Training Center will be a multi-use facility by all Ministries

and serve as a venue for SOCCENT's bi-annual Counter

Narco-Terrorism training. A recent end-use monitoring visit

demonstrated the Tajiks are using previously provided

communications equipment and maintaining the equipment. There

is room to grow this program. This year, we will begin

establishing an interagency communications architecture at

Nizhny Pyanj and the adjoining district. This will allow five

government agencies to communicate using a compatible system.




9. (C) Nizhny Pyanj Bridge: The NP bridge and Point of Entry

facilities have improved the lines of communication between

Tajikistan and Afghanistan significantly. It is true the bridge

is not being used to its fullest capacity; however, in contrast

to the old ferry system, the current traffic is much higher and

continues to increase. Counts vary between 40 and 200

containers and transport trucks per day. Pedestrians use the

bridge but must be shuttled across. The bridge typically is
open from 0800 to 1700 six days a week. CENTCOM funding in 2010
at this facility will improve force protection with lighting,

fences, and cameras, and additional parking areas. President
Rahmon probably will pitch to you the need for construction of
another bridge across the Pyanj River - our normal response is
that we want to see the bridge being used to full capacity
before considering any other bridge construction projects.





AF-PAK STRATEGY




10. (S/NF) Since the USCENTCOM conference in Washington D.C.,

where the Obama Administration's AF-PAK strategy was explained

to the military representatives of Central and South Asia, there

have been several incidents along the border of Tajikistan with

ISAF forces. There have been two alleged overflights of the

border by ISAF aircraft and several ground operations observed

by the Tajik Border Guards. The last incident involved two ISAF

helicopters crossing the border near Kala-i-Khumb on June 9.

The Minister of Defense was in the area in response to the

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situation in Tavildara and personally witnessed the helicopters.

To date, there has been no response from CENTCOM, ISAF, or RC

North authorities to Tajikistan's request for an explanation of

the incident. This subject may not be brought up, but a
response should be prepared in the event it is.




11. (C) Tajikistan is eager to see the United States make
greater use of our agreement on transit of non-lethal goods to
Afghanistan and hopes for economic benefits to Tajikistan from
this agreement. So far only about 30 cargo containers have
transited Tajikistan by road from Manas. No rail cargo has
transited Tajikistan since it must pass through Uzbekistan. The
Tajiks have pressed many times for U.S. purchase of bottled
water, juices, and fruits and vegetables from Tajik suppliers.
The Tajiks are looking for any way possible to circumvent
Uzbekistan's stranglehold on their foreign trade, and they
believe it is Uzbekistan's policy to exclude Tajikistan from
NDN-related business.



COUNTER NARCOTIC EFFORTS




12. (C) Narcotics trafficking and related corruption problems

are extremely serious in Tajikistan. Tajikistan is a major
transit

corridor for Southwest Asian heroin to Russia and Europe. About

half of heroin seizures in Central Asia occur in Tajikistan.

Capabilities of Tajik law enforcement agencies are severely

limited by lack of resources and widespread corruption. Law

enforcement agencies are reluctant to target well-known and

well-connected traffickers; however, they do show a willingness

to target low and mid-level traffickers, particularly those of

foreign nationality




13. (C) Multiple agencies in Tajikistan are involved in the

fight against drug trafficking: the Drug Control Agency,

Ministry of Interior, the State Committee for National Security,

and the Border Guards under the State Committee for National

Security. Tajik Border Guards are poorly trained, poorly paid,

and under-equipped. It is common to observe border

personnel without shoes and in short supply of food. A main

thrust of U.S. assistance is border security. Assistance

provides equipment, training, and infrastructure, such as

building and refurbishing border posts, border-crossing

checkpoints, and new training facilities for the Border

Guards. The Embassy also assists other law enforcement

agencies. The Drug Control Agency is a ten-year old, 360

officer agency developed through a United Nations Office of

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Drugs and Crime project that is funded primarily by the

Department of State.



ECONOMIC DIFFICULTIES




14. (U) Tajikistan's economy continues to suffer from the global
recession through major drops in exports, imports, and
remittances from Tajiks working abroad.

Tajik exports have fallen by half this year, largely due to

decreased demand for Tajikistan's two key exports, aluminum and

cotton. Imports have fallen along with remittances. Because

Tajikistan's budget depends heavily on customs revenue, both

declines have had an impact on state spending.




15. (U) The most important economic lifeline for average Tajiks

are the remittances from an estimated million compatriots
working abroad,

mainly in Russia. The money they sent home equaled over 50% of

GDP last year and literally keeps rural communities alive. Due

to the economic crisis remittances have fallen over 35%

this year. Besides reducing imports, the drop in remittances

is reducing food security, especially in the countryside.



ELECTIONS ARE COMING, BUT DEMOCRACY ISN'T




16. (C) The government has limited the ability of opposition

political parties to operate and made no progress on electoral

reforms for the February 2010 parliamentary elections.

Parliamentary opposition is weak - only 15 of the 62 members of

parliament are not members of the ruling party, and most of
these are

independent in name only. Parliament acts as a rubber stamp,

barely discussing important legislation such as the national

budget. It recently passed a restrictive new law on religion,

curbing the activities of religious groups, Islamic or

otherwise. Our advice that this will only serve to radicalize

many believers has fallen on deaf ears. The President appointed

a human rights Ombudsman recently, but the office is not

independent of him, nor does it have resources. The Ombudsman

has asked donors to finance his operations.



CORRUPTION CLOUDS RELATIONS WITH DONORS


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17. (C) In late 2007, Tajikistan's National Bank admitted it had

hidden hundreds of millions of dollars in loans and guarantees

to cotton investors, violating its IMF debt relief program. The

IMF demanded early repayment of some debt, an audit of the

National Bank, and other reforms before renewing assistance.

The audit revealed the National Bank lent over $1 billion to

investors with close government ties, of which nearly $600

million was never repaid. Still, in May the IMF voted to lend a

further $116 million to Tajikistan to help it through the next

three years; the United States was the only IMF member to vote
against

this, which infuriated the Tajik government. The IMF has

disbursed the first $40 million. Before it releases the next

tranche of $30 million, the IMF must determine that the Tajik
Government is making progress. One benchmark is a major

reorganization of agriculture to move away from unprofitable

cotton farming.




18. (C) Donors are pushing regional energy market integration

and the construction of power lines that would allow Tajikistan

and Kyrgyzstan to sell surplus summer electricity output to

Afghanistan and Pakistan. A 220 kw line from Tajikistan to

Afghanistan is under construction now with Asian Development

Bank financing and will be finished in late 2010. However, the

larger CASA-1000 power line project to connect Kyrgyzstan

through Tajikistan and Afghanistan to Pakistan has been delayed
because of financing problems. The Asian Development Bank has
preffered in the near term to support poverty reduction
projects; this has sat ill with the Tajiks, as they have noticed
that at the same time the ADB has funded construction of the
railroad extension from Termez to Mazar e Sharif, further
cementing Uzbekistan's grip on NDN traffic.



TRAFFICKING IN PERSONS




19. (C) Tajikistan made some progress in fighting Trafficking in

Persons (TIP) during the past year, including punishing some

local officials for forcing students to pick cotton, and

increasing trafficking convictions. It made no progress on

protecting victims or investigating abuse of victims by

officials. Tajikistan barely escaped a downgrade to Tier 3, and

we are now discussing an action plan to improve Tajikistan's

anti-TIP efforts with the government. This year the Tajiks
insist that no students will be drafted to pick cotton, but this
may simply be the result of a relatively poor cotton crop due to

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heavy spring rains.



U.S. ASSISTANCE




20. (C) U.S. assistance to Tajikistan stands to grow

significantly to an expected $58 million in FY 2010, ramping up
from $30 million in FY2009. The major part of new money will go
to agriculture,

trade, and private sector initiatives to compensate for the loss

of the much needed food security programs. Until FY 2008

Tajikistan had a multi-year food aid program that showed

significant results reducing food insecurity in some of

Tajikistan's most at-risk regions. New programs also will
strengthen the capacity of communities to provide essential
services such as increased access to drinking water, while other
efforts will

address chronic energy shortages by building a regional energy

market and helping the central Asian states to address water and

power issues.




21. (C) Health and education deficiencies are so acute they

imperil our progress in other areas. Our programs are working

to improve health policies, systems and services, teacher

training, education finance, national curriculum, student

performance assessment, and school governance.



TALKING POINTS FOR MEETING WITH PRESIDENT RAHMON




22. (SBU) Following are suggested talking points for your

meetings with President Rahmon and other officials:



-- Afghanistan: We are encouraged by Tajikistan's initial steps

to train Afghan border guards and counter-narcotic agents at the

U.S.-built training center in Khorog. We invite Tajikistan to

take on more robust training efforts with Afghanistan. What is

Tajikistan's view of the proposed training program? Have there

been obstacles or opportunities in the planning to train with

Afghanistan?



-- Russia: Are relations with Russia improving since the

recent meeting with President Medvedev? What new role is

Russia trying to play in Central Asia's security?




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-- Human Rights, Political Reforms: Maintaining space for

political and religious expression is vital to internal

stability. We are concerned that your new law on religion is
being used to persecute small religious groups and will

alienate religious adherents. We and OSCE are also concerned
that the upcoming February 2010 parliamentary

elections will not give the people an opportunity to express

their political choices. You should consider amending the

religion law and promptly passing electoral legislation

recommended by the OSCE. We are discussing with your government

an action plan to better fight trafficking in persons; lack of

progress in this area could interfere with our assistance.



-- Economic Reform: Since my last visit, I know that you have

accomplished much: you have launched a program for 200 Days of
Reform to improve the business environment, with Tajikistan
recognized by the World Bank Doing Business Report as one of the
world's top ten reformers over the last year; advanced
preparations for eventual WTO

accession; and resolved to forgive cotton debt and to reform the

agricultural sector. These are great steps for Tajikistan's

stability and prosperity. I urge you to continue your

reforms, in particular by giving farmers new freedoms to expand

and diversify their businesses, reducing dependence on cotton

and offering new paths out of poverty.
GROSS