STEEP CHALLENGES AHEAD WEIGH ON NEWLY ANNOUNCED COPE LEADER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DURBAN 000009 SENSITIVE SIPDIS FOR AF/S E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV SF SUBJECT: STEEP CHALLENGES AHEAD WEIGH ON NEWLY ANNOUNCED COPE LEADER IN KZN DURBAN 00000009 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (SBU) Summary. Congress of the People (COPE) political leader Lucky Gabela discussed why he left the African National Congress (ANC) and his new party's campaign strategy and prospects during a meeting with the Consul General, visiting Pretoria Poloff, and Pol-Econ Assistant on January 15. Gabela, who was once a senior member of the ANC in KwaZulu Natal, announced his defection to COPE publicly on January 10, but worked secretly for the new party before then. He acknowledged the party must work hard to gain a foothold in the province, but expressed confidence COPE would meet its electoral goals and remain a political player after the election. End Summary. Gabela On Why He Left ¶2. (SBU) Former special adviser to the KwaZulu Natal Premier's Office Lucky Gabela discussed why he defected from the African National Congress to COPE in a January 15 meeting with the Consul General, visiting Pretoria Poloff, and Pol-Econ Assistant. He said that "leaving the ANC was a long time coming." Acknowledging he has been working for COPE "underground" for several months, he related that ANC members are leaving the party because "they must find a way to find a way to stop the monsters." (Note: Gabela's reference to "monsters" probably relates to those in the Jacob Zuma camp who during the past year aggressively pushed the "non-purge purge" within the party following former President Thabo Mbeki's defeat at Polokwane that saw his supporters sidelined. End Note.) He expressed frustration with how young people in the ANC are speaking out of turn within the ANC and added that he saw no leadership within the ANC right now. Gabela lamented that he and other Mbeki supporters "miscalculated" at Polokwane. According to him, "The manipulation of the corruption case against Zuma allowed Zuma's allies to defeat Mbeki [at the party congress]." Gabela on COPE and Its Future ¶3. (SBU) Gabela provided insight into how COPE is developing in the province, and his remarks show how hard it is has been for the new party to gain a foothold. He said the current focus for the new party is building local and provincial branch offices. COPE is building branches by distributing pamphlets with contact numbers for members in a district, using the media to spread their message, and attracting significant numbers of potential voters for rallies in key areas. Despite Gabela's mention of COPE's use of media, the former special adviser to the Premier's Office seemed not to appreciate the high level of media attention COPE is drawing across the country. He admitted that because of the short amount of time before the election and the limited resources available to the party, COPE is focused on towns and cities rather than villages and rural areas. Gabela said that despite high level comments by ANC leadership in the province against political violence, the ANC is not showing political tolerance for COPE rallies and meetings. He noted that police presence at recent provincial rallies has helped, but not enough for some community activists to avoid getting hurt. One way COPE intends to counter the intimidation that its members face is to go into "no-go areas" -- ANC strongholds -- with heavy security. Once in the area, COPE plans to get in and out quickly before ANC cadres can mobilize and react. ¶4. (SBU) Gabela said COPE's goal for the election is 10 percent in the province and 40 percent nationally. He said COPE will try to capitalize on the numerous reasons that people are leaving the ANC to join COPE. Many are leaving first because of how the ANC unfairly recalled Mbeki without input from the public, and secondly, due to the ANC's decision to aggressively dismantle the Scorpions law enforcement unit. Third, some are defecting because they want to make political leaders more accountable. Fourth, many feel strongly that affirmative action should not be applied along racial lines. Fifth, the party is using is former knowledge of ANC operations to capitalize on poor performance of local councilors and related dissatisfaction. When the Consul General asked if COPE is attracting supporters from across racial and cultural lines, Gabela affirmed that the new party is crossing all the divides it can. He said even white South Africans who have avoided politics since 1994 are joining. ¶5. (SBU) Gabela predicted that a number of other ANC leaders in the province would be joining COPE soon, but did not offer names. He said part of the party's strategy right now is keeping supporters in the ANC as long as possible to find out information and to help disrupt plans. However, he said that at a certain point "we will not allow more to come." According to Gabela's view, "COPE cannot be open forever." He said that it DURBAN 00000009 002.2 OF 002 is better for members to join now rather than after the ANC's parliamentary officers' list process ends, and COPE has to "accept losers." He quipped, "We don't want only rejected ANC members joining the party." Gabela insisted that those who left the ANC will "never go back to the party and will remain in COPE after the election." Comment ¶6. (SBU) Thoughtful commentary by a political leader such as Lucky Gabela is helpful in gaining a sense of COPE's perception of its strengths and weaknesses in KwaZulu Natal ahead of the election. The party has a lot of work to do before it can seriously contend for political control of the province. COPE will need to streamline its message, consolidate its membership, and counter some serious political antagonism from the ANC for the party to be successful here. Gabela may also need to grow savvier in his use of the media buzz surrounding COPE. Moreover, perhaps most importantly, for COPE to be successful the party will need to avoid appearing like "a group of the disgruntled" to voters in a province where there are several other political choices. Gabela appears to be cognizant of how hard COPE must work -- with limited time and resources -- in coming months. DERDERIAN