LACK OF CLEAR STRATEGY MAY DASH IFP LEADERS' CONFIDENCE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DURBAN 000008 SENSITIVE SIPDIS FOR AF/S E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV SF SUBJECT: LACK OF CLEAR STRATEGY MAY DASH IFP LEADERS' CONFIDENCE DURBAN 00000008 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Senior Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) leaders provided insight into the party's campaign strategy and prospects during a meeting with the Consul General, Poloff, and Pon-Econ Assistant on January 13. Provincial Secretary Bonginkosi Buthelezi and Provincial Treasurer Narend Singh discussed the party's standing in the province and the general state of affairs. They noted that the party hopes to win 51 percent of the vote in KwaZulu Natal, but admitted the IFP is facing some serious challenges. End summary. IFP Leaders Discuss Agenda, Challenges ¶2. (U) IFP provincial leaders Bonginkosi Buthelezi and Narend Singh discussed the party's agenda and prospects during a meeting with the Consul General, Poloff, and Pol-Econ Assistant on January 13. Buthelezi and Singh began the meeting by noting that the IFP's election manifesto launch would be in Soweto on January 25, followed by a launch on February 14 in KwaZulu Natal. They noted the party would focus on key issues such as unemployment, education, and health, but that it is doing things differently for this election than for previous polls. It will, for example, make a more concerted effort to target youth. Also, unveiling the IFP's provincial premier candidate -- the IFP's national chairperson Zanele Magwaza-Msibi -- before the election was part of this strategy and they acknowledged that she was a risky choice. They are hoping the party's focus on key issues and its new strategy will help the party achieve its goal of 51 percent electoral support in the province; they acknowledged that they would be happy with between 43 and 48 percent, and are confident the party will increase its seats in the National Assembly. ¶3. (SBU) Neither leader expressed a clear way forward for the party to achieve its goals and could not boil their agenda down into short answers. (Note: Buthelezi and Singh passed out copies of the party's draft political program, but did not elaborate on items in the document. End Note.) Moreover, despite their confidence both leaders acknowledged there are serious challenges facing the IFP. First, they noted that funding is the biggest problem the party is facing as it campaigns for the election, and accused the ANC of using state machinery to support its own campaign. They raised a concern about the unbalanced distribution of resources -- the funding for political parties -- but welcomed the provincial legislature's decision to avail R20 million (USD 2 million) for party funding for the election. Second, they acknowledged that the "Zuma (African National Congress President Jacob Zuma) factor" is a reality in the province and said they are devising strategies to counter it. However, the National Prosecuting Authority's pursuit of Zuma on charges of corruption, fraud, racketeering, and money laundering is giving him more sympathy from voters, they observed. Third, they said municipal IFP leaders' poor performances have had a negative impact. Failure to deliver is one of the reasons the IFP struggled in the 2004 election. Finally, many political analysts and pundits have observed that the lack of a clear succession plan has hurt the IFP. When asked whether there is a succession plan, Buthelezi and Singh admitted IFP leader Prince Mangosuthu Buthelezi may step aside after the election and focus on his role as a traditional leader. IFP Leaders Speak to Intra-Party Cooperation ¶4. (SBU) Buthelezi and Singh noted the IFP is open to working with other parties on key issues, and possibly down the line, working in coalitions. (Note: Singh conceded that the IFP's decision to work with the Democratic Alliance in 2004 was ill-advised. End Note.) They confirmed that the IFP has held bilateral talks with the African National Congress (ANC) to deal with issues causing tension in the province such as street name changes and the ANC's disciplinary steps toward IFP members of legislature. They noted that the meetings with the ANC have been positive and judge that relations with the ANC at the national level are much better compared to what is happening provincially. (Note: Buthelezi and Singh said that the IFP is prepared to govern with the ANC depending on the election outcome. End Note.) They also believe that the new leader of the ANC in KwaZulu Natal, Zweli Mkhize, will help improve relations between the two parties, given his more collaborative style of leadership ¶5. (U) Buthelezi and Singh related that the IFP has met with other opposition parties, including Democratic Alliance and the United Democratic Movement, to discuss issues of common interest. However, they indicated that they will not be forming alliances before the elections and that any partnerships would be formed after the election. They stated the reason the IFP is DURBAN 00000008 002.2 OF 002 unwilling to form partnerships is because they think there might be no outright winner. Buthelezi and Singh asserted that the Congress of the People (COPE) will erase some of the ANC's electoral support in the province and that the party may capture at least 2 seats from the ANC. However, they believe that COPE will not affect the IFP. Comment ¶6. (SBU) Buthelezi and Singh's insights into the IFP's electoral chances in the face of several challenges are useful to understanding the political dynamic in KwaZulu Natal. They both assessed that the environment in the province is conducive for a free and fair election here. While the IFP is confident about its chances in the province, they appear to lack a clear strategy on how to achieve a favorable outcome. Even without a clear strategy, however, Buthelezi and Singh's acknowledgement that the IFP would be willing to work with other parties on key issues and perhaps in coalitions means the party will remain a player if it fails to meet its electoral goals. DERDERIAN