IFP YOUTH PRESIDENT HOPEFUL ABOUT PARTY'S CHANCES, BUT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DURBAN 000007 SENSITIVE SIPDIS FOR AF/S E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV SF SUBJECT: IFP YOUTH PRESIDENT HOPEFUL ABOUT PARTY'S CHANCES, BUT CHALLENGES REMAIN DURBAN 00000007 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) Youth Brigade President Pat Lebenya-Ntanzi believes her party can take back the Kwa-Zulu Natal provincial government and keep the African National Congress (ANC) from winning a two-thirds majority nationally. She asserted that the formation of the Congress of the People (COPE) would do more to hurt the ANC than hamper the IFP and said her party's new campaigning techniques would be successful when she met with visiting Pretoria Poloff and Pol/Econ Assistant on January 14. Her judgments may overstate the strength of the IFP in the province, but her observations underscored her good grasp of the political landscape in South Africa. End Summary. "We Are Ready to Take Back KZN" ¶2. (U) Lebenya-Ntanzi met with visiting Pretoria Poloff and Pol/Econ Assistant on January 14. She began the discussion by saying that the IFP is expanding provincially and nationally. She said, "We are poised to take back the province and keep the ANC from winning a two-thirds majority." She noted that the party's campaign for the election began in 2007 and that this election marks the first time in the party's history that it announced its provincial premier candidate -- the IFP's national chairperson Zanele Magwaza-Msibi -- before voting takes place. The party now has 200 youth branches across the country, but she admitted it only has branches in six of the nine provinces. Part of the IFP's strategy for expansion across the country includes recruiting at high schools (for the first time) and at universities. She said the youth brigade is now open for members between the ages of 14 and 35 whereas before it was open for members between 18 and 40. When asked how the IFP was reaching its target demographic, she said it was relying on text messages. (Note: She said the party is not yet on facebook.com, which is where COPE is said to be drawing members. End Note.) IFP Identifies Core Campaign Issues . . . ¶3. (U) Lebenya-Ntanzi said the party's core campaign themes will resonate with the public. She noted that the party will promote programs that reduce unemployment, improve the quality of education, and tackle HIV. She called the unemployment rate in this country "unacceptable." She noted that the government's Outcomes Based Education program is unpopular in the province because teachers no longer know what is expected of them. She said the party wants to find ways of tackling HIV that do not include creating a developmental, welfare state. She expressed confidence that the IFP could deliver on these themes better than the ANC and that voters would recognize this about the party. . . . While Many Longstanding Problems Remain ¶4. (U) Lebenya-Ntanzi admitted that IFP faces many of the same problems that have plagued the party for years. She said, "We cannot attract young whites or Indians...that remains a challenge." She noted that succession within the party is not transparent and that even though the party successfully listed its provincial and national candidates the political infighting behind the process was "ugly." She expressed concern that the party's leadership failed to understand just how "ugly" the list process was because many of them had shut out those within the party with leadership aspirations. (Note: At one point she said that party elders often refer to those within the youth brigade as "kids always asking for things." End Note.) She related that Mangosuthu Buthelezi is "not ready to leave...and it is his right to retain power if he chooses after the election." At one point, she declared that the IFP wants to win 10 percent of the vote nationally, but it was clear by how she mentioned this and how she emphasized winning the party's goal of winning the province and keeping the ANC from gaining an outright majority that achieving such a percentage may be difficult. On the ANC and COPE ¶5. (U) Lebenya-Ntanzi said that the IFP was not worried about "Zuma factor" or the "COPE factor" undermining the party's chances in the province. She said, "Zuma has been known for a long time in this province. It is not like he is something new for voters here." She asserted that the youth are not drawn to Zuma or the ANC's agenda and cited how IFP councilors run the ANC President's home ward and district in KwaZulu Natal. (Note: She provided an alternative view of ANC Youth League President Julius Malema, noting he "is a really good leader to work with." She said the ANC Youth League and the IFP Youth Brigade work well together on a national level because of Malema's DURBAN 00000007 002.2 OF 002 willingness to listen to IFP concerns. End Note.) Lebenya-Ntanzi also noted that the IFP is unconcerned about the "COPE factor" because so far the new party is "only hurting the ANC and the Democratic Alliance." She noted that many COPE leaders may return to the ANC after the election if the new party fails to deliver a solid showing. She thought it would be surprising if COPE even gets two seats in the province. Comment ¶6. (SBU) Lebenya-Ntanzi's comments are helpful because they provide an IFP youth's perspective on the party's agenda--and future--and on the political landscape in South Africa. Her judgments may overstate the strength of the IFP in the province as it could prove difficult for the party to win control here by campaigning against a Zuma-led ANC, but helping keep the ANC from winning a two-thirds majority seems possible, and her observations underscored her good grasp of the political scene in South Africa. DERDERIAN