IRELAND'S JUNE 5 ELECTION RESULTS: ANOTHER NAIL IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 000220

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/10/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON EI
SUBJECT: IRELAND'S JUNE 5 ELECTION RESULTS: ANOTHER NAIL IN
FIANNA FAIL'S COFFIN

REF: A. DUBLIN 213

B. DUBLIN 127

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Classified By: Pol/Econ Section Chief Ted Pierce;
Reasons 1.4 (b/d).


1. (C) Summary: As expected, the Fianna Fail (FF) led
government coalition took a beating in the June 5 local and
European Parliament elections, polling well behind its main
rival Fine Gael (FG) and losing ground as well to the
Opposition Labour Party. The Greens faltered seriously. FG
now holds the largest number of seats in local government.
Because FF lost both by-elections for the national
parliament, the governing coalition holds only a three seat
majority. Either the Greens or the group of Independents
could cause the government to fall. In the European
Parliament elections, Labour gained two seats, while FG and
FF lost one each. Declan Ganley's bid for a seat in Brussels
ended with a fourth-place finish. He has vowed to leave
politics. Sinn Fein's only European representative also lost
her seat, reflecting the weak position of the "all-island"
party in the Republic. FG has announced that it will call
for a vote of no-confidence in the government, which we
expect will be largely symbolic -- at least for now.
However, we expect a significant cabinet re-shuffle. We
think the Opposition will really begin to press its electoral
advantage after the government introduces the December
budget, which will almost certainly have to include heavy --
and unpopular -- spending cuts. End Summary.

A New Low for Fianna Fail
--------------


2. (SBU) Fianna Fail (FF),the senior party in the governing
coalition with the Green Party and a few Independents, lost
significant ground in the nationwide local elections to its
main rival, Fine Gael (FG),as well as to the Opposition
Labour Party. FG won about 120 more local council seats than
did FF, making it the largest party in local government. As
of June 9, with three elections still undecided, FG had 338
seats, FF had 213, and Labour had 116 (up 15 seats from 5
years ago). More importantly, though, Fianna Fail failed to
win either of the by-elections for the national parliament,
reducing their governing majority to just three (down from
nine after the 2007 general election). FG won one of these
contests (Dublin South),while an Independent took the other
(Dublin Central). A defection by either the Independents
group or the Green Party can now bring down the government
(Ref A).

Greens Hanging By a Thread ...
--------------


3. (SBU) The Green Party fared even worse than FF. The party
now only has three local council seats nationwide, down from
18 it won in the last local elections in 2004. It lost all
eight seats it held in Dublin. This result does not augur
well for the party if a general election becomes necessary.
Party Leader and Environment Minister John Gormley described
the election result as "traumatic." Saying that his party
would not pull out of government, Gormley added that the
Greens would engage in a process of internal discussion to
assess the outcome.

... and Ganley's Thread is Cut
--------------


4. (C) In the European Parliament elections, FF lost one
seat. FG also lost a seat, while Labour was the big winner
with a net gain of two seats. Libertas leader Declan
Ganley's bid for a European seat (Ref A) ended with a fourth
place finish in the Northwest Ireland constituency. On June
8, Ganley announced that he would leave politics. (Comment:
Ganley came to prominence in Ireland and across Europe with
his successful 2008 referendum campaign against the Lisbon
Treaty (Ref B). We expect the Irish voters to get another
crack at approving the Treaty in October 2009. Whether
Ganley will be active this time around is still an open
question. End comment.)


5. (C) In another setback, Sinn Fein lost its only European
Parliamentarian in the Republic when Mary Lou McDonald, Sinn
Fein's Vice-President, failed to hold her seat, coming in a
disappointing fifth place in the Dublin constituency. Her
poor showing reflects the inability of Sinn Fein to connect
with voters in the Republic in spite of its "all-island"
ethos. In the local elections, Sinn Fein took a net loss of
one seat and garnered only 7.3 percent of the overall vote.


Comment: So Now What?

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6. (C) FG leader Enda Kenny has announced that he will hold a
vote of no-confidence in the Dail this week. We expect this
to fail as the Greens and Independents are unlikely to
abandon FF. In spite of its poor electoral showing in the
local elections, we expect the Greens to become stronger in
the short-term as they now hold the balance of power in the
coalition government. Prime Minister Brian Cowen has
announced that FF will re-negotiate the Programme for
Government (the government platform) with the Greens, making
the new Programme "greener."


7. (C) We expect changes in FF leadership as the party
leverages blame for the electoral downfall. The party
faithful are not at all happy with Cowen; he could eventually
face a leadership challenge. We expect the Deputy Prime
Minister and Economy Minister Mary Coughlan to face a
demotion of some sort -- she was responsible for determining
which candidates FF fielded in each local constituency.
There will very likely be other changes in the Cabinet.


8. (C) Until the Parliament adjourns for the summer in early
July, FG and Labour will keep up the barrage of criticism and
complain that the Government no longer has a mandate to
govern. It is unlikely, however, that either party really
means to force a general election at this point, as a victory
would put them on the hook to deliver not only a victory in
the upcoming Lisbon Treaty referendum but also to deliver a
draconian budget in December 2009 (Ref A). The real
political push to oust FF -- if it comes -- will likely be in
the new year.
FAUCHER