ARAB DEMOCRACY FOUNDATION HEAD RELATES DRAFT PLAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DOHA 000676 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2019 TAGS: PREL PTER PHSA SOCI QA SUBJECT: ARAB DEMOCRACY FOUNDATION HEAD RELATES DRAFT PLAN FOR SOMALIA Classified By: Ambassador Joseph E. LeBaron for reasons 1.4 (b and d). -------------- (SBU) KEY POINTS -------------- -- In a November 12 meeting with Ambassador, Arab Democracy Foundation Director Marzen Marzouk shared his organization's plan to develop a sustainable peace process in Somalia. -- The first part of the plan consists of a research phase during which key actors are identified and the prospects for a truth and reconciliation process assessed. -- In the second phase, key actors would be invited to a preliminary conference in Doha to decide whether a classic truth and reconciliation process is feasible and to design a draft blueprint for the peace process. -- In the final phase, representatives of the parties in Somalia, along with participants from Somalia's neighbors and the international community, would gather in Djibouti. They would refine the draft blueprint and establish a working committee to coordinate and advocate during the peace process itself. -------------- (C) COMMENTS -------------- -- Marzouk was very careful to tell Ambassador that the adoption of this plan was at a sensitive stage, most likely because he is lobbying the GOQ for greater engagement in Somalia in general, and to adopt his model in particular. While this plan may serve as a useful framework for designing a peace process in Somalia, it is unlikely that the GOQ will take the initiative at this time. The MFA is heavily involved in the Darfur process, and will likely be reluctant to divert its precious resources to the Somalia conflict, as concerned about it as they may be. End Key Points and Comments. ¶1. (SBU) At a November 12 meeting with Ambassador, Arab Democracy Foundation (ADF) Director Marzen Marzouk unveiled a three part draft plan for how his organization plans to engage the parties to the conflict in Somalia with the aim of formulating a blueprint for a peace process. The meeting was held at Marzouk's request. Also in attendance were ADF Deputy Director for Programs Wafa'a Omar and Poloff Caudill. Marzouk reported that the ADF has developed a three part plan for developing a sustainable peace process in Somalia. ¶2. (SBU) STEP ONE: IDENTIFYING THE KEY ACTORS. In this phase of the process, researchers will review the literature on the truth and reconciliation process in general and map the key dynamics and actors in Somalia. By mapping the key actors, the ADF hopes to develop a "guest list" for a preparatory meeting to be held in Doha. ¶3. (SBU) STEP TWO: DOHA PREPARATORY MEETING. The purpose of the Doha meeting will be to gather the input of the key stakeholders identified in the previous step. The ADF estimates that eighty per cent of the participants will be members of the Somali diaspora resident in Doha (Note: when asked by Ambassador whether the diaspora in Doha was sufficiently representative of the various Somali groups and interests, Dr. Marzouk replied "They are all here." End Note). Other invitees would include Abdullahi Abdulla Azhari, Minister of Somali Diasporic Communities in the Transitional Federal Government, and representatives from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Kenya, and Yemen. ¶4. (SBU) At the Doha meeting, the participants, informed by the research compiled in the first phase, would analyze the question of whether a classic truth and reconciliation process is feasible in Somalia, or if the Somali process should be unique. Whatever their findings, the participants will then begin designing a blueprint for how to proceed. They will also prepare a draft agenda and a draft list of invitees to an international conference on Somalia to be held in Djibouti. DOHA 00000676 002 OF 002 ¶5. (SBU) STEP THREE: DJIBOUTI INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE: The ADF estimates that 80-100 individuals will be invited to participate in this conference, which aims to build on the momentum gained in Doha to generate agreement on a sustainable peace process. ADF expects to invite representatives of the Somali government, the autonomous regions of Puntland and Somaliland, representatives from countries in the region, and representatives of international organizations. ¶6. (SBU) The ADF hopes that the Djibouti Conference will produce a declaration affirming the need for a sustainable peace process and the establishment of a timeline for it. It also hopes to form a working group and elect representatives to manage the next steps and finalize a blueprint for the peace process that is acceptable to all participants. LeBaron