ARAB DEMOCRACY FOUNDATION HEAD RELATES DRAFT PLAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DOHA 000676

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2019
TAGS: PREL PTER PHSA SOCI QA
SUBJECT: ARAB DEMOCRACY FOUNDATION HEAD RELATES DRAFT PLAN
FOR SOMALIA

Classified By: Ambassador Joseph E. LeBaron for reasons 1.4 (b and d).

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(SBU) KEY POINTS
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-- In a November 12 meeting with Ambassador, Arab Democracy
Foundation Director Marzen Marzouk shared his
organization's plan to develop a sustainable peace process
in Somalia.

-- The first part of the plan consists of a research phase
during which key actors are identified and the prospects
for a truth and reconciliation process assessed.

-- In the second phase, key actors would be invited to a
preliminary conference in Doha to decide whether a classic
truth and reconciliation process is feasible and to design
a draft blueprint for the peace process.

-- In the final phase, representatives of the parties in
Somalia, along with participants from Somalia's neighbors
and the international community, would gather in Djibouti.
They would refine the draft blueprint and establish a
working committee to coordinate and advocate during the
peace process itself.

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(C) COMMENTS
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-- Marzouk was very careful to tell Ambassador that the
adoption of this plan was at a sensitive stage, most likely
because he is lobbying the GOQ for greater engagement in
Somalia in general, and to adopt his model in particular.
While this plan may serve as a useful framework for
designing a peace process in Somalia, it is unlikely that
the GOQ will take the initiative at this time. The MFA is
heavily involved in the Darfur process, and will likely be
reluctant to divert its precious resources to the Somalia
conflict, as concerned about it as they may be.

End Key Points and Comments.


1. (SBU) At a November 12 meeting with Ambassador, Arab
Democracy Foundation (ADF) Director Marzen Marzouk unveiled
a three part draft plan for how his organization plans to
engage the parties to the conflict in Somalia with the aim
of formulating a blueprint for a peace process. The
meeting was held at Marzouk's request. Also in attendance
were ADF Deputy Director for Programs Wafa'a Omar and
Poloff Caudill. Marzouk reported that the ADF has
developed a three part plan for developing a sustainable
peace process in Somalia.


2. (SBU) STEP ONE: IDENTIFYING THE KEY ACTORS. In this
phase of the process, researchers will review the
literature on the truth and reconciliation process in
general and map the key dynamics and actors in Somalia. By
mapping the key actors, the ADF hopes to develop a "guest
list" for a preparatory meeting to be held in Doha.


3. (SBU) STEP TWO: DOHA PREPARATORY MEETING. The purpose
of the Doha meeting will be to gather the input of the key
stakeholders identified in the previous step. The ADF
estimates that eighty per cent of the participants will be
members of the Somali diaspora resident in Doha (Note: when
asked by Ambassador whether the diaspora in Doha was
sufficiently representative of the various Somali groups
and interests, Dr. Marzouk replied "They are all here."
End Note). Other invitees would include Abdullahi Abdulla
Azhari, Minister of Somali Diasporic Communities in the
Transitional Federal Government, and representatives from
Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Kenya, and Yemen.


4. (SBU) At the Doha meeting, the participants, informed by
the research compiled in the first phase, would analyze the
question of whether a classic truth and reconciliation
process is feasible in Somalia, or if the Somali process
should be unique. Whatever their findings, the
participants will then begin designing a blueprint for how
to proceed. They will also prepare a draft agenda and a
draft list of invitees to an international conference on
Somalia to be held in Djibouti.


DOHA 00000676 002 OF 002



5. (SBU) STEP THREE: DJIBOUTI INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE:
The ADF estimates that 80-100 individuals will be invited
to participate in this conference, which aims to build on
the momentum gained in Doha to generate agreement on a
sustainable peace process. ADF expects to invite
representatives of the Somali government, the autonomous
regions of Puntland and Somaliland, representatives from
countries in the region, and representatives of
international organizations.


6. (SBU) The ADF hopes that the Djibouti Conference will
produce a declaration affirming the need for a sustainable
peace process and the establishment of a timeline for it.
It also hopes to form a working group and elect
representatives to manage the next steps and finalize a
blueprint for the peace process that is acceptable to all
participants.
LeBaron