QATARI ENERGY MINISTER SETS STAGE FOR GAS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DOHA 000428 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/01/2019 TAGS: ENRG EPET EINV PREL TRGY QA RU IR SUBJECT: QATARI ENERGY MINISTER SETS STAGE FOR GAS EXPORTERS' FORUM IN MEETING WITH AMBASSADOR REF: DOHA 27 Classified By: Amb. Joseph LeBaron for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- (C) KEY POINTS -------------- -- In a meeting with Ambassador just prior to the June 29 opening of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) Ministerial in Doha, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy Abdullah Bin Hamad Al-Attiyah downplayed, as usual, the scope of the forum's agenda, denying that the members had the intention or capability to pursue cartel-like behavior. -- Early indications on the forum suggest that the GECF members (at least 10 of 14 attended the Doha meetings) are still struggling with a raison d'tre and in disagreement about objectives. -- The main item of business was to elect a Secretary General for the group, but the decision was postponed until the next GECF ministerial, slated for December in Doha. -- Separately, Al-Attiyah lamented to Ambassador the way CO2 emissions are calculated internationally, noting that relying on a per capita emissions basis works to the disadvantage of small countries with energy-intensive activities such as Qatar. -------------- (C) COMMENTS -------------- -- Al-Attiyah's assertions to Ambassador and other U.S. officials about the GECF's limited scope usually rest on the premise that the natural gas industry's long-term contracts and regional distribution networks make cartel-like behavior impossible. While true that the natural gas market is different than oil, these assurances ignore some trends moving natural gas in the direction of a global commodity. Chief among these trends is the increasingly important role of Qatar and other liquefied natural gas (LNG) producers in providing swing supply and a growing spot market. -- The GECF's inability to decide on a candidate for Secretary General undercuts its influence and, consequently, the organization's prospects for enhancing coordination among members. End Key Points and Comments. -------------- MINISTER'S VIEWS ON GECF -------------- ¶1. (C) Al-Attiyah told Ambassador, as he has previously, that the GECF is not intended or structured "as the press talks," and the organization will never concern itself with contracts or supply matters. He projected that natural gas will not see a real spot market develop for years, and noted that Qatar prefers long-term contracts anyway. ¶2. (C) The Minister underscored that most LNG is based on long-term, take-or-pay contracts. Qatar is a "long-term thinker" and only sells a small amount of excess supply on the spot market. (Al-Attiyah explained Qatar's recent sale of about 50 LNG cargoes to a U.S. firm on a spot basis by noting that delays to the start-up of the hurricane-damaged Golden Pass receiving terminal in Texas meant that newly-started production did not have a committed regasification facility to go to - and was thus freed up for spot sale.) ¶3. (C) Al-Attiyah noted there were between 4-6 candidates for GECF Secretary General but he gave no indication whether Qatar was nominating someone or whom Qatar would support. He also refused to be drawn out on whether the Secretary General position would have a structured rotation with fixed terms. -------------- GECF ATMOSPHERICS DOHA 00000428 002 OF 002 -------------- ¶4. (U) The GECF events in Doha covered two days - an Executive Committee meeting on June 29, and a ministerial-level gathering on June 30. -- 10 of the GECF's 14 members attended (according to press): Algeria, Equatorial Guinea, Egypt, Iran, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Russia, Trinidad and Tobago, and Venezuela. Both Kazakhstan and Norway attended as observers, while the UAE attended as a guest. -- According to press accounts, the main item of business was to elect a Secretary General for the organization. However, participants were unable to reach consensus and postponed the decision to the GECF's next meeting, which will reportedly be held in Qatar this December. -- Iran presented a nominee, Hojatollah Ghanimifard, who is currently the Acting Vice President for Investments of the National Iranian Oil Company. Publicly available information suggests Ghanimifard is a technocrat. -- According to a detailed Russian press report from Kommersant Online, Russia had extracted a quid pro quo at the December 2008 GECF meeting which was to give a Russian the post of Secretary General in exchange for basing the organization in Doha. According to this same report, Russia came to the conference without a candidate as several of its potential nominees declined to stand for the post. A separate Arabic report from RIA Novosti, a Russian News Agency, indicated Russia pressed to postpone the Secretary General selection because of Russia's inability to find a suitable candidate. -- The Forum did appoint Qatar's Minister Al-Attiyah as President of the Forum, with Algeria's Minister of Energy and Mines Chakib Khalil as an alternate. The President appears to have no role outside presiding over the ministerial meeting. -- (C) The Netherlands' application to join the GECF as an Observer was approved. Dutch DCM Jeannette Nieuwenhuijis told Econoff Fabrycky June 28 that the Netherlands would not be sending a representative to this week's meeting. Qatari Energy Minister Al-Attiyah met with Dutch Economic Affairs Minister Maria Van der Hoeven in mid-June to discuss importing Qatari LNG into planned Dutch regasification terminals, according to press reports. -- (U) The accession of the UAE to the forum was also approved at the ministerial, according to Al-Attiyah. -- (U) Opening the forum, Al-Attiyah spoke in generalities and platitudes, noting that the forum is a "platform for cooperation." He reviewed Qatar's leading role in the LNG market, and underscored the effects of the global economic crisis on the energy industry. (A full summary of Al-Attiyah's remarks and other official coverage of the ministerial is available at the Qatar News Agency website - www.qnaol.com). -------------- CAP-AND-TRADE -------------- ¶5. (C) Separately, in his meeting with Ambassador, Al-Attiyah referenced his recent trip to Washington and meetings with Congressional leaders, noting that Qatar is not against cap-and-trade schemes per se, but does have "reservations" about the way CO2 emissions are calculated internationally. Al-Attiyah worried that collecting data on a per capita basis severely disadvantages small states like Qatar, Singapore, and others. He noted that their CO2 output is insignificant compared to major polluters like China, but with the current data streams, Qatar looks like a bad polluter and might be subject to onerous restrictions via cap-and-trade schemes. Al-Attiyah called for an emphasis on absolute values of CO2 emissions. The Minister underscored Qatar's emphasis on clean energy sources, noting they are conducting studies on carbon capture. LeBaron