DOHA DARFUR TALKS SITREP ONE (AL-MAHMOUD, BASSOLE)

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DOHA 000354 SENSITIVE FOR AF/SPG AND NEA/ARP E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL SU CD QA SUBJECT: DOHA DARFUR TALKS SITREP ONE (AL-MAHMOUD, BASSOLE) -------------- (SBU) KEY POINTS -------------- -- Special Envoy Gration met separately with Qatari Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Ahmed al-Mahmoud and AU/UN Joint Mediator Djibrill Bassole, who told him that the Doha process was the "only way forward" and it was essential to pressure the Government of Sudan (GOS) and Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) to get beyond the issue of prisoner exchanges. -- Both men reported that the GOS would not release JEM prisoners before a cessation of hostilities, whereas JEM would not cease hostilities without at least a partial release. -- They also agreed that pressure was needed on Chadian President Idriss Deby to reduce his support to JEM and reconcile with the GOS. -- Al-Mahmoud and Bassole viewed the Darfur peace process as an important part of efforts to fully implement the North-South Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and to stabilize all of Sudan. -- Bassole suggested including rebel leader Abdulwahid Nur in the talks as a "counterbalance to JEM." End Key Points. Special Envoy's Meeting with Al-Mahmoud -------------- ¶1. (SBU) The President's Special Envoy for Sudan, Gen. Scott Gration, met on May 26 in Doha with Qatari Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Ahmed Al-Mahmoud, and discussed the need for the GOS and JEM to get beyond differences over the sequencing of a cessation of hostilities agreement and a prisoner exchange as envisioned in the Goodwill Agreement signed in Doha earlier this year. Al-Mahmoud reported that the JEM was willing to initiate prisoner exchanges, but the GOS was insistent that no prisoners would be released until a cessation of hostilities agreement had been reached. ¶2. (SBU) The Special Envoy said it was important to urge the GOS to agree to release a percentage of its JEM prisoners - perhaps 10 percent - in the first stage. These could be the least combat-ready prisoners, who would not pose a threat to the GOS even if a cessation of hostilities agreement were not in place or respected. In the second phase, the GOS could release the bulk of prisoners - perhaps 80 percent - and then the final release of high-value prisoners, including Khalil's brother, could take place once hostilities have totally stopped. This entire process need not take long, Gration suggested. ¶3. (SBU) Al-Mahmoud supported this approach, as well as the Special Envoy's proposal for a Declaration of Principles. In terms of re-starting the talks in Doha, Al-Mahmoud said it was essential to "get moving again," because he agreed with what the Sudanese had told him: if the Qatari initiative does not succeed, no initiative will succeed, and all-out war will come. ¶4. (SBU) Turning to his strategy for the current round of talks in Doha, Al-Mahmoud handed Gen. Gration a draft P5 statement emphasizing their support for the process, and urging all parties to the conflict in Darfur to cease hostilities and return to the Doha process. The statement cites the positive efforts of the USG -- specifically the Special Envoy -- twice. ¶5. (SBU) Al-Mahmoud said that he had conferred with both the Sudanese and Chadian President Idriss Deby, who claims to have less influence over the JEM than before. The Sudanese, Al-Mahmoud said, underestimate JEM and believe that if their links with Deby were cut, they would not survive as a movement. Al-Mahmoud agreed with the Special Envoy's assessment that addressing the situation between Chad and Sudan was vital to bringing peace to Darfur and noted that he would be travelling to Libya and Egypt soon to continue to push this message. ¶6. (SBU) While he did not want to engage in the "endless story" of trying to fix every problem in Sudan, Al-Mahmoud acknowledged the importance of addressing Darfur in the context of CPA implementation and problems elsewhere in the country. Special Envoy's Meeting with AU/UN Mediator Bassole -------------- -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Gen. Gration met separately with AU/UN Joint Mediator Djibril Bassole, who enunciated the same support as Al-Mahmoud for the Doha process; for pressuring the JEM, GOS, and Chad; and for viewing the Darfur talks within the context of greater Sudan. ¶8. (SBU) Bassole added that recent developments in Darfur may ironically be "clearing the path to a cessation of hostilities and peace," because JEM was establishing a base of operations within Darfur. The "JEM-Deby link is clear" and must be reduced to give JEM a greater sense of urgency in talking seriously. ¶9. (SBU) Another way to pressure JEM into making concessions was to invite Fur rebel leader Abdulwahid Nur to Doha, Bassole suggested. "If Abdulwahid is here, Khalil will agree to a cessation of hostilities, a Declaration of Principles and resettlement," Bassole opined. Abdulwahid's participation would "create another dynamic." ¶10. (SBU) Bassole asked that the USG continue its support for the Doha process, press other movements to join the talks, and "make a strong initiative to improve relations between Chad and Sudan." ¶11. (U) SE Gration's delegation has cleared this cable. LEBARON