SE GRATION MEETING WITH SUDANESE PRESIDENTIAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DOHA 000284 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PHUM QA SU SUBJECT: SE GRATION MEETING WITH SUDANESE PRESIDENTIAL ADVISER GHAZI DOHA 00000284 001.2 OF 002 -------------- (SBU) KEY POINTS -------------- -- Dr. Ghazi Salah-Eddin, adviser to the President of Sudan, told the President's Special Envoy (SE) to Sudan Gration that Qatar and UN/African Union Mediator Djibril Bassole should try to achieve a cease-fire as a first step toward the political framework agreement. -- Further, Libya and Chad need to pressure JEM to sign on to a cease-fire or it will not happen. -- Salah-Eddin urged SE Gration to study the Chad situation very carefully, noting that President Deby feels threatened internally, and he recommended promoting economic projects and special ties to Chad that would draw in the Chadian rebels. -- Down the road, Salah-Eddin said, a cease-fire agreement must be followed by a broad-based disarmament that is implemented and monitored by UNAMID. -- Dr. Ghazi said the international community could assist with the monitoring of any Chad-Sudan agreement coming out of the Qatar-Libya talks. -------------- (SBU) COMMENTS -------------- -- Dr. Ghazi provided the regime's moderate views of a variety of issues to include making the argument for augmenting UNAMID's capacity and mandate if a ceasefire package and Darfur peace deal could be struck. He was also open to non-African troops from the sub-continent if the US could sell it as part of an overall peace package for Darfur. -- With regard to the potential for JEM to attack South Kordofan, Ghazi reacted sharply and stated emphatically that the government would react strongly and without hesitation. -- SE Gration pressed Ghazi hard to endorse a May 4-5 resumption of the Doha talks in combination with the Chad-Sudan talks and increased focus on Chad. SE Gration noted that the combination of: (1) upcoming Chad-Sudan talks; (2) renewal of Doha talks between JEM, other rebel groups and the Government of Sudan; and (3) focus on Chad's internal situation and potential to support the integration of Chadian rebels into the government could prove to be a winning strategy. End Key Points and Comments. ¶1. (SBU) In an April 28 meeting with Dr. Ghazi Salah-Eddin, Sudanese Presidential Adviser, (joined by the Sudanese Ambassador to Qatar, his DCM and another Sudanese official) told Special Envoy (SE) to Sudan Gration (joined by Ambassador, S/USSES Deputy Tim Shortley and P/E Chief Rice), that Qatar and UN/African Union Mediator Djibril Bassole should try to achieve a cease-fire as a first step toward a political framework agreement. ¶2. (SBU) Chad and Libya, noted Salah-Eddin, are the keys to a cease-fire. Having a cease-fire would help lay the framework to encourage skeptical Chadians to be more forthcoming. Incentives for Chad are needed, he stressed, to provide Deby with space to cut JEM off and to put pressure on the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM). ¶3. (SBU) Libya and Chad need to pressure JEM, in Salah-Eddin's view, to sign on to a cease-fire or it will not happen. The Sudanese Ambassador to Qatar agreed, noting that JEM is focused everything but peace to include consolidating their position as well as prisoner exchanges, the return of NGOs to Darfur, but not on improving the security environment. SE Gration responded that the return of NGOs was largely resolved and that he would explain this in his upcoming meeting with JEM leader Khalil Ibrahim. ¶4. (SBU) Salah-Eddin urged SE Gration to study the Chad situation very carefully, noting that President Deby feels threatened internally. "Right now, JEM is an ally of Deby," and the stability of Chad and its government psychologically are essential for Deby. It is vital, concluded Salah-Eddin, to address Deby's perceptions. ¶5. (SBU) Asked how to keep JEM from expanding its reach DOHA 00000284 002 OF 002 within Sudan to new areas (to include South Kordofan), Salah-Eddin recommended telling JEM "point blank" it is a red line that cannot be crossed. "All of us should say it." It should, he continued, be part of the discussions in Doha and endorsed by the international community. ¶6. (SBU) Salah-Eddin encouraged SE Gration to promote economic projects in Chad and special ties with the Chadian government that would draw in the rebel groups. He also noted that other Darfur rebel groups could accept a cease-fire without JEM's acquiescence as a means to exert pressure on JEM to join it. ¶7. (SBU) JEM, said Salah-Eddin, needs incentives to participate in Qatar's Initiative, but it also "may need sticks if that doesn't work." Reiterating that Deby as their backer is key to a solution, Salah-Eddin encouraged SE Gration to get at JEM through Deby. ¶8. (SBU) DISARMAMENT: Down the road, Salah-Eddin continued, a cease-fire agreement must be followed by disarmament, which also must figure in the provisions of any cease-fire. Small guns, big guns, all weapons need to be taken from the movements when the time is right. ¶9. (SBU) UNAMID: Salah-Eddin said monitoring of the cease-fire must be part of any cease-fire package and be addressed in an context of the UNAMID mandate - to include bolstering its capabilities and mandate. He cautioned, though, that these issues must be negotiated directly with Sudanese President Bashir. ¶10. (SBU) EGYPT: Asked how to approach Egypt, Salah-Eddin advised that SE Gration should always make a stop in Cairo when in the region and keep them briefed on what he is doing so that they will included and there are no surprises. ¶11. (SBU) CHAD-SUDAN TALKS: SE Gration discussed the upcoming Sudan-Chad talks with Ghazi and noted that it was important that the international community and the region work together to monitor any agreement with additional capacity along the Chad-Sudan border. He stressed that the combination of: (1) upcoming Chad-Sudan talks; (2) renewal of Doha talks between JEM, other rebel groups and the Government of Sudan; and (3) focus on Chad's internal situation and potential to support the integration of Chadian rebels into the government could prove to be a winning strategy. ¶12. (U) SE Gration has cleared this message. LeBaron