JEM THREATENS TO EXPAND WAR IN PURSUIT OF PEACE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DOHA 000283 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PHUM QA SU SUBJECT: JEM THREATENS TO EXPAND WAR IN PURSUIT OF PEACE -------------- DOHA 00000283 001.2 OF 002 (SBU) KEY POINTS -------------- -- The Justice and Equality Movement's (JEM) representative in Doha, Abu Bakr Al-Qadi, told Special Envoy for Sudan Scott Gration April 28 that JEM believes the Government of Sudan is serious about peace but is no partner in the pursuit of it. -- Al-Qadi said the way to bring about peace is by taking the war to Khartoum and the country's center. Only then would the GOS negotiate seriously and agree to a fair and equitable settlement of ongoing disputes. -- JEM seeks a final settlement of the dispute in Darfur that would involve economic development. -- Wanting to avoid the mistakes made in southern Sudan, JEM sees a framework agreement, perhaps in the context of a trial three-month cease-fire, while maintaining its arms as the best negotiating path forward. -- Special Envoy for Sudan Scott Gration encouraged JEM to transform itself into a political movement, vice army. -------------- (SBU) COMMENT -------------- -- JEM sees itself, and acts as, the only armed and real Darfur opposition to the National Congress Party and will not settle easily. All it wants are more allies in its fight against Khartoum. Threats to take it all the way to Khartoum, to South Kordofan, and to absorb the remaining armed movements in Darfur could be prophetic. The concern is not just that JEM may destabilize Khartoum or the eastern portion of the Three Areas, but that it may also ensure the renewal inter-state conflict between Chad and Sudan, and further upset the fragile Comprehensive Peace Agreement. End Key Points and Comments. ¶1. (SBU) In an April 28 meeting with Special Envoy (SE) for Sudan Gration (joined by Ambassador, S/USSES Deputy Tim Shortley and P/E Chief Rice),the permanent representative in Doha of the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) Abu Bakr Al-Qadi underscoredQt the shortest way to a cease-fire in Darfur is by negotiations of AU/UN's Chief Mediator's framework agreement. This is because it is essential not to repeat the mistakes that were made in the Abuja negotiations of the Darfur Peace Agreement. ¶2. (SBU) Al-Qadi suggested that it was possible to implement a cease-fire for three months, provided that a framework agreement comes out of it at the end. JEM, he said, seeks a "final solution that would involve economic development." ¶3. (SBU) Al-Qadi asked the Special Envoy why the international community is not "protecting our people. Why are there no airplanes?" He said JEM wants to build "an alliance of the marginalized against the Government of Sudan (GOS)." ¶4. (SBU) Al-Qadi said JEM believes the GOS is serious about peace but is no partner in the pursuit of it. "The GOS only understands the stick," he said. Al-Qadi said the way to bring about is by taking the war to Khartoum and the country's center. With displaced everywhere within the center would the GOS negotiate seriously and agree to a fair and equitable settlement of disputes. ¶5. (SBU) Special Envoy Gration, after listening intently to numerous examples of GOS failings and a long history of disappointments for the Darfur opposition, said he agreed with JEM that there should be no offensive flights over Darfur. ¶6. (SBU) SE Gration challenged JEM to transform itself from an army into the political movement (stress on movement) that its name implies. He said the people of Darfur will move forward toward prosperity when they have the basic necessities of life. The residents of Darfur need to see assistance channeled to people living normally outside Internally Displaced Person (IDP) camps. ¶7. (SBU) Success, SE Gration noted, can be measured by the population of Darfur that leaves the camps and leads a normal life. This is what he seeks in Darfur and all of Sudan: a normal life for its inhabitants. The country has known war since its independence, and the Qatar Initiative on Darfur is DOHA 00000283 002.2 OF 002 SUBJECT: JEM THREATENS TO EXPAND WAR IN PURSUIT OF PEACE an opportunity that all groups and the GOS must seize to bring the fighting to an end. He encouraged JEM, again, to transform itself into a political movement and take advantage of this opportunity. We must, he underscored, measure progress by the quality of life in Darfur and not the quantity of weapons held by the opposition groups. ¶8. (U) SE Gration has cleared this message. LeBaron