DJIBOUTI FONMIN URGES REVISED AMISOM MANDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L DJIBOUTI 000743

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/06/20
TAGS: PREL PINS KPKO MASS DJ KE SO AU
SUBJECT: DJIBOUTI FONMIN URGES REVISED AMISOM MANDATE

REF: 09 DJIBOUTI 555; 09 DJIBOUTI 563
20 JUNE 2009 SWAN-PATTERSON TELCONS

CLASSIFIED BY: James Swan, Ambassador; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)

1.(C) Summary: Worried that Somalia's Transitional Federal
Government (TFG) risks being "overwhelmed," Djibouti's Foreign
Minister proposes modifying the AMISOM mandate to permit countries
bordering Somalia to contribute forces. While the move would be
intended primarily to encourage deployment of Kenyan troops, the
FonMin said that Djibouti is also willing to send a contingent to
Somalia to help shore up the TFG. The FonMin said these issues
would be discussed further during the African Union summit in
Sirte. End summary.




2. (C) Foreign Minister Mahmoud Youssouf called Ambassador
evening June 19 to express concern over the "very serious" reverses
faced by the TFG in the previous two days. Both the TFG and AMISOM
are at risk of being "overwhelmed." Al-Shabaab's gains in the
strategic Karan neighborhood of Mogadishu put the extremists in a
position to close the airport and port. TFG President Sharif
Sheikh Ahmed continues to call Djiboutian President Ismael Omar
Guelleh almost daily to request support. Sharif sees an urgent
need to strengthen and expand AMISOM. Guelleh supports this view.
If the TFG forces are going to defeat their opponents, they need
improved mobility and better command and control. Additional
AMISOM forces could help address this "weakness of command."




3. (C) In a follow-up call mid-day June 20, Youssouf said he had
spoken with Kenyan Foreign Minister Moses Wetangula regarding what
Youssouf described as a tentative Kenyan offer to contribute troops
to AMISOM. Increasingly concerned over developments in Somalia,
the Kenyans have already deployed additional military on their side
of the border with Somalia, Youssouf reported. The potential
Kenyan contribution would be in addition to a Burundian offer to
deploy an additional battalion to AMISOM. According to Youssouf,
Wetangula told him that Kenyan President Kibaki would meet with his
defense council within the next two days to decide on military
options regarding Somalia.




4. (C) A Kenyan contribution would require modifying the existing
AMISOM mandate to permit deployment of troops from countries
bordering Somalia. Youssouf said that President Guelleh favored
such a change in mandate. Djibouti would also contribute forces
for Somalia, despite Djibouti's small army, meager resources, and
defensive commitments on the border with Eritrea. Stabilizing
Somalia is such an urgent priority that Djibouti would offer its
own troops in order to encourage other, larger countries also to
deploy with AMISOM. Youssouf said Djibouti would make two
companies available for this mission.




5. (C) Youssouf said he expected discussion at the African Union
Summit on ways to accelerate troop contributions to AMISOM and to
modify the existing mandate to permit neighbors to deploy. He and
other Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Foreign
Ministers planned to contact African Union Chairman Jean Ping prior
to the summit to lay the groundwork for modifying the AMISOM
mandate.




6. (C) Comment: The GODJ remains intensely focused on ways to
bolster the TFG at this critical moment. The GODJ has supplied
weapons to the TFG and offered to train TFG units in Djibouti (Ref
A). The GODJ has previously urged modification of the AMISOM
mandate to permit AMISOM forces to provide direct support to TFG
military operations, including offensives against al-Shabaab and
other opponents (Ref B). We defer to Embassy Nairobi and the
Somalia Unit as to how serious the Kenyans may be about a possible
deployment under AMISOM (Ref C). Of course, any modification of
AMISOM's mandate to permit neighbors to deploy would have to
include reassurance that this is not merely cover for the return of
Ethiopian forces to Somalia. GODJ willingness to contribute its
own troops to AMISOM demonstrates both GODJ fear for the survival
of the TFG and commitment to do the maximum to save it.
SWAN