Somalia - TFG Parliament Convenes in Djibouti

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DJIBOUTI 000050 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019-01-25 TAGS: PGOV PINR SOCI KDEM SO DJ SUBJECT: Somalia - TFG Parliament Convenes in Djibouti CLASSIFIED BY: Bob Patterson, Counselor for Somalia Affairs; REASON: 1.4(B),(D) ¶1. (C) Summary: The Transitional Federal Parliament convened January 25 in Djibouti's Peoples Palace with an estimated 230 MPs in attendance. On the agenda for day one are amendments to the Transitional Federal Charter, which would expand the Parliament to allow Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) MPs to take their seats and extend the TFG's mandate by two years. By January 28, the transitional Parliament should elect a President to replace Abdullahi Yusuf, who resigned on December 29. A January 24 GODJ-sponsored opening ceremony was postponed until January 25 after TFG acting President Sheikh Aden "Madobe" failed to attend. The UN Special Representative's efforts to ensure that a president is elected within the thirty days mandated by the Charter were being resisted by MPs from both the TFG and the ARS, who believe that more time will be necessary. A committee created by the acting President is reportedly collecting the resumes of candidates for president, but not even "Madobe" could tell us how many candidates there would be, and who might be on the election inside track. End summary. Acting President Delays Opening -------------- --- ¶2. (C) During the January 19 - 24 period, UN-chartered flights from Nairobi, Baidoa, and Mogadishu have transported most of the MPs in those cities to Djibouti for parliamentary sessions that began on January 25. Multiple sources have told us that an estimated 230 plus MPs are present, many more than the two-thirds necessary to amend the Transitional Federal Charter. A January 24 opening reception in honor of the acting President, the Prime Minister, and MPs hosted by the Government of Djibouti (GODJ) had to be postponed when TFG acting President and Speaker Sheikh Aden "Madobe," citing fatigue, was unable to attend. The ceremony took place at midday, January 25, and featured speeches by GODJ representatives, the UN Secretary General's Special Representative, as well as representatives from the League of Arab States, IGAD, and the African Union. Speaking for the unity government were the acting President, Prime Minister, and ARS Chairman Sheikh Sharif. Speakers Urge Rapid Progress of Parliament's Work -------------- ¶3. (C) The GODJ representative in his opening remarks admonished the MPs present to avoid arguments, finish their business in Djibouti quickly, and resolve their problems with minimal assistance from the international community. "We are all tired of the Somalia problem," he summed up. UN Special Representative (SRSG) Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah adopted an even tougher tone. "I must be frank," he said, before suggesting that the "criminals" obstructing peace and reconciliation in Somalia should be taken to The Hague for trial. The SRSG urged that the TFG cooperate with the ARS and called for a halt to the fighting in Somalia. "There is no excuse, now that Ethiopia is gone," he said. ¶4. (C) The other international community representatives offered remarks along the same lines as the GODJ and the SRSG. The IGAD facilitator followed the SRSG in urging that the TFG make room for the ARS, noting that "give and take are important," if there was to be reconciliation. Both the AU and IGAD mentioned targeted sanctions against "spoilers" of the peace process. ¶5. (C) ARS Chairman Sheikh Sharif opened by condemning the suicide bombings in Mogadishu. The killings, he said, "cannot be justified or explained," and were "contrary to Islam." He promised that the ARS would take action against the perpetrators, if they were found. Sheikh Sharif also stressed the need to reach consensus with the TFG and noted that "now is not the time to argue about who should be in the leadership. Now is the time to take group responsibility for Somalia's problems." The audience enthusiastically applauded Sheikh Sharif's remarks. ¶6. (C) Prime Minister Nur Hussein Hassan "Nur Adde" won applause when he encouraged all the MPs to build a unity government and return to Somalia as a united front. However, one MP began heckling the PM during his remarks, addressing him as the "former prime minister." After she was finally quieted, PM Hussein said at this fifth meeting between the TFG and ARS in Djibouti, "We must produce tangible results." He asked all MPs to show patience and respect, and to work together in a "joyful" manner. Acting President "Madobe" ended the reception by joining Sheikh Sharif in strongly condemning the Mogadishu suicide bombings and in urging that unity government representation be inclusive. The TFG, he said, was willing to work and share power with the former opposition (the ARS). DJIBOUTI 00000050 002 OF 002 MPs Push for More Time -------------- ¶7. (C) During the much-delayed reception on both January 24 and 25, numerous MPs told Somalia Unit representatives that they thought it unlikely that the amendment of the Charter, expansion of the Parliament, admission of new ARS MPs, and the election of a President could be accomplished by the January 30 deadline established by the Charter. We have joined with UNPOS, UK, and the AU to insist that the deadline must be met. The MPs, however, were seconded by the ARS leadership, the Prime Minister, and the acting President, with whom Somalia Unit met separately. All individually urged that the deadline be extended, citing the need for more thorough consultations before the Parliament proceeded to the election of a president. TFG Resistance to ARS -------------- ¶8. (C) A TFG MP faction was separately telling the international community and the TFG leadership that they would not endorse the addition of ARS MPs to the Parliament. It was difficult to gauge either the size of the group or weigh its influence with the other MPs. Members of the group met with "Madobe" just before the January 25 session but, judging by the acting President's remarks at the subsequent reception, did not succeed in changing his mind. ¶9. (C) Complicating ARS efforts to join an expanded Parliament are apparent difficulties the faction is having in assembling its list of 200 MPs. After weeks of promising, and failing to deliver, its list to the SRSG, ARS representatives acknowledged late January 24 that they would be laboring through the night to vet the list. They promised that their prospective MPs were trickling into Djibouti, and would be ready to work in an enlarged Parliament by January 25. Observers trace the ARS's difficulties to a surplus of Hawiye who would like to join the Parliament and ARS reluctance to confront the unhappiness that will ensue, once some find out they have not been included on the list. There are also rumors that Sheikh Sharif to date has been unsuccessful in winning the ARS support he will need if he is to run for President. On the afternoon of January 25, the SRSG told us that the ARS had presented him with a list, but that it needed to be translated into English before it could be examined. Mogadishu Suicide Bombings Shadow Parliament's Work -------------- ¶10. (C) Accompanying the gathering of MPs in Djibouti have been two reported suicide bombings, reportedly targeting AMISOM troops. The AU has issued at least one statement condemning one of the bombings. TFG Deputy Prime Minister Ahmed Abdisalaam Aden, who arrived from Mogadishu January 23, ascribed the bombings to "foreigners" intent on de-railing the reconciliation process. He guessed that the killing of Somalis would only stiffen the resistance in Mogadishu to al-Shabaab. Comment -------------- ¶11. (C) The international community's efforts to complete the election process by January 28 could well be foiled by Somali foot-dragging. Some of the hesitation to proceed quickly is prompted by a perceived need for more consultation before moving forward. The ARS's reluctance to proceed may be occasioned by the continued absence of its MP-nominees in Djibouti. Other participants may hope that presidential candidates they are sponsoring would benefit from more time with the MPs, while still other MPs, with their eyes on their bank accounts, may be calculating that a protracted process will translate into always welcome more UN per diem. We have told all parties that we expect their work to be completed by January 28, period. In the worst case scenario, we understand that a leadership vacuum could be avoided by reverting to the 1960 constitution that allows parliament to take a vote to extend the election deadline. While this would further undermine the Somalis' credibility, it may be impossible to herd hundreds of MPs and their coteries to a final objective in the next seventy-two hours when most have told us that they have no idea of the program or the process they are supposed to be following. SWAN To view the entire SMART message, go to URL http://repository.state.sgov.gov/_layouts/OSS SearchResults.aspx?k=messageid:e884bdff-05c4- 4114-980d-0402193594dd