DJIBOUTI: KEY RULING PARTY ALLY TO BACK THIRD TERM FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L DJIBOUTI 001417 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/12/22 TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPAO DJ SUBJECT: DJIBOUTI: KEY RULING PARTY ALLY TO BACK THIRD TERM FOR PRESIDENT GUELLEH REF: 09 DJIBOUTI 1405; 09 DJIBOUTI 1277 CLASSIFIED BY: J. Swan, Ambassador; REASON: 1.4(B),(D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. President Guelleh's most powerful ruling-coalition ally is poised to back a constitutional amendment allowing him to run for a third term in office in 2011. In exchange for its support, the FRUD ("Front for the Restoration of Democracy and Unity") has asked that the amendment be paired both with a general "rebalancing" of ethnic and political representation within the GODJ, and with additional adjustments in Djibouti's governance structures (e.g. creation of a senate and a new vice president or executive prime minister position). The FRUD plans to announce its position on a third term publicly during a January 5 party convention. By striking a deal with the FRUD-the predominately Afar former rebel group that is the most important ruling party ally-Guelleh has cleared the way to a constitutional amendment permitting him to run again in 2011. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) During a December 22 breakfast with Ambassador, FRUD President Ali Mohamed Daoud ("Jean-Marie") said that President Guelleh had recently met with FRUD leaders to negotiate their support of a constitutional amendment and a third mandate for Guelleh. Daoud explained that the FRUD was currently "not in a position" to present its own candidate for 2011-largely for financial reasons-and had thus decided to back Guelleh. During discussions with Guelleh, Daoud told Ambassador, the FRUD had proposed several additional reforms in exchange for FRUD support. At a general level, Daoud said, the FRUD had asked for an overall "rebalancing" of political and ethnic representation within the GODJ, with additional key positions going to parties outside of the RPP. As part of the constitutional revision process, the FRUD also asked for 1) the creation of a vice-president or the strengthening of the prime minister position (which is currently a figure head), 2) the establishment of an upper legislative chamber, 3) the introduction of a proportional representation system at the legislative level, to include the designation of sub-regional election districts, and 4) the designation of the vice-president, prime minister, or National Assembly president as interim president in case of the death or disability of the incumbent (this role is currently held by the president of the supreme court). ¶3. (C) The President "took good note" of the FRUD's proposals, Daoud said, clearly confident that FRUD's demands would be met. Discussion of the details will now continue between the two parties, with the FRUD slated to announce its official position on a third mandate during a January 5 party convention. Daoud said that there was already a committee within the FRUD tasked with examining the question of constitutional reform, and that the RPP ("People's Rally for Progress") and the FRUD would soon form a joint commission to discuss the issue together. It would be desirable, Daoud told Ambassador, to involve all of Djibouti's political parties-including the opposition parties which boycotted the last legislative elections-in any discussions of constitutional reform. The FRUD will also insist that the constitutional revision be approved via popular referendum, rather than by National Assembly vote. President Guelleh had not yet taken a position on this question, Daoud said. (NOTE. Djiboutian law allows the President to decide whether a constitutional amendment will be approved by a simple majority in the National Assembly and in a national referendum, or by a two-thirds majority vote in the National Assembly. RPP and FRUD together hold 60 of the 65 seats in the National Assembly. END NOTE). ¶4. (C) Daoud asked Ambassador whether the USG could help convince opposition parties not to boycott 2011 elections. Ambassador reiterated that impeccably free, fair, and transparent elections in 2011-with a maximum of participation-were in everybody's interest, and assured Daoud that he continued to emphasize this point with both GODJ and opposition interlocutors. To help ensure the fairness and transparency of the elections, Ambassador suggested, the GODJ should consider inviting international observers early, and might think about forming the national election commission-normally constituted 90 days before the election date-somewhat earlier. Daoud agreed that it would be a good idea to set up the national election commission earlier, and said that he would present this option to President Guelleh. Ambassador also suggested that providing access to state-run media for opposition parties would be an uncomplicated way to help ensure the fairness of the campaign and elections. Daoud agreed that public debates between parties in the media were important to the democratic process, and said the FRUD was planning to re-invigorate its newspaper "La Liberte" during the campaign period. ¶5. (C) COMMENT. In the President's ruling UMP ("Union for a Presidential Majority") coalition, the FRUD is the RPP's most influential ally. In opting to support a constitutional revision to permit a third term, the FRUD has likely decided that backing the President puts it in the best position to negotiate for reforms and reshuffling which increase FRUD influence at the national level. While Daoud himself has not explicitly stated his intentions, he is likely eyeing a new vice-presidential or executive prime minister position for himself. Barring an unanticipated revolt by FRUD rank and file, Daoud's deal effectively clears the way for a constitutional amendment to permit a third term for Guelleh. END COMMENT. SWAN