DJBIOUTI: RULING COALITION PARTNER DECLARES INDEPENDENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L DJIBOUTI 001405 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/12/20 TAGS: PGOV PINR KPAO KDEM PHUM DJ SUBJECT: DJBIOUTI: RULING COALITION PARTNER DECLARES INDEPENDENT CANDIDACY FOR 2011 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS REF: 09 DJIBOUTI 1393 CLASSIFIED BY: J. Swan, Ambassador; REASON: 1.4(B),(D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. During a December 13 party congress, the PND (National Democratic Party),a member of President Guelleh's current five-party ruling coalition, decided not to support a possible constitutional amendment allowing Guelleh to run for a third term in office in 2011, and instead declared the candidacy of PND party president Aden Robleh Awaleh. GODJ security forces maintained a heightened security posture during the PND event, which reportedly drew a smaller turnout than expected. A few days before the PND congress, the President's RPP (People's Rally for Progress) party paper "Le Progres" published several pages of coverage criticizing the possible Awaleh candidacy, and renewing calls for a third Guelleh mandate. While the RPP is likely to maintain this combative public stance vis-a-vis Robleh and any additional candidates who emerge from a slew of party congresses planned for December, top GODJ officials have privately indicated that additional candidates may be regarded as positively contributing to the perceived transparency of 2011 elections. END SUMMARY. -------------- -------------- PND REJECTS CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT, DECLARES PND PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The PND's seventeenth regular congress took place on December 13, in the garden of the Djibouti City residence of PND President Aden Robleh Awaleh. GODJ security forces reportedly monitored the event closely, and attendance was relatively low, with a notable absence of higher-profile government officials or businessmen from the party. The PND had announced its congress via a mid-November communique and a November 26 edition of the PND's periodic newsletter "La Republique." Some copies of both documents were reportedly confiscated by police, although the newsletter remained privately available for purchase from Djibouti City news vendors, at inflated prices. ¶3. (SBU) During the congress, PND members rejected calls for a constitutional amendment allowing President Guelleh to run for a third term in office, and approved the 2011 presidential candidacy of PND President Awaleh. (NOTE. Awaleh is now the second declared presidential candidate for 2011 elections. PDD (Djiboutian Party for Development) President Mohamed Chehem Daoud declared his candidacy, subject to PDD congress approval, in March 2009. The PDD is not/not affiliated either with the ruling "Union for a Presidential Majority" coalition, or with the opposition grouping "Union for a Democratic Alternation." Despite high-profile RPP calls for him to stand for a third term, President Guelleh has not/not formally or informally declared that he seeks to run. END NOTE.) The congress also ended with a call for a national roundtable gathering to discuss a "peaceful" approach to 2011 elections. ¶4. (SBU) BIO NOTE. Aden Robleh Awaleh is an ethnic Issa/Odagob. He was born in Ali Sabieh in 1941, completed university studies in France, and was active in Djibouti's independence movement. During the independence movement, he was part of an operation which involved taking a group of French schoolchildren hostage. He previously served as Minister of Commerce, Transport, and Tourism, and was first elected to the National Assembly in 1982. He was a founding member of the RPP, but later left the party and the government and exiled himself in France between 1986 and 1992. END BIO NOTE. -------------- -------------- PRESS COVERAGE-RARE OPEN DEBATE BETWEEN PARTY NEWSPAPERS -------------- -------------- ¶5. (SBU) A local BBC stringer covered the PND congress for the BBC's Somali-language service, and this radio coverage was broadcast in Djibouti. Earlier, a December 10 edition of the RPP newspaper "Le Progres" devoted several pages of prominent coverage to discussing the upcoming congress and responding to the November 26 edition of the PND newsletter "La Republique." Editorials pointed out the legality of the proposed constitutional amendment, and criticized Awaleh as an elderly, partisan and clan-focused leader, incapable of holding the country's highest office. A special section of "Le Progres" was devoted to messages from "ordinary" party members, sharply criticizing Awaleh as a "man of the past," and renewing calls for a third mandate for President Guelleh." ¶6. (SBU) A December 17 edition of "La Republique" refuted many of the accusations leveled at the PND by "Le Progres," as well as reporting on the results of the congress. Awaleh defended himself against criticism that his use of the term "autochtone" (indigenous) to describe Djiboutian populations in an earlier communique had been divisionary and shadowed with colonial overtones, clarifying that he meant the phrase to include all native Djiboutians, including those of Somali, Afar, and Yemeni origin. He also noted that the PND is still a member of the ruling UMP ("Union for a Presidential Majority") coalition, and that the question of 2011 elections must be discussed with all UMP members. He specified that his proposed national conference on 2011 elections would include also those members of the FRUD (Front for the Restoration of Democracy and Unity, currently a member of the ruling coalition and a former armed opposition group) who "speak of rekindling the flame of civil war." -------------- -------------- DESPTIE PUBLIC RULING PARTY CRITICISM, POSSIBLE PRIVATE WELCOME OF ADDITONAL CANDIDATES? -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) COMMENT. Despite the sharp partisan rhetoric of "Le Progres," there have been some recent signs, including comments from the Prime Minister (reftel) and Minister of Communications and Culture, indicating that the GODJ may not look altogether unfavorably on the idea of additional presidential candidates in ¶2011. In its public stance, the RPP continues its aggressive calls for a constitutional amendment and a third Guelleh mandate, and will likely also continue to lambast any potential opposition contenders. Privately, top GODJ officials may be more welcoming of additional candidates, and see them as helpful in demonstrating the legitimacy of 2011 elections. Several additional political parties-both from the ruling coalition and the opposition-reportedly intend to hold party congresses during December. The outcome of these gatherings will likely shape the RPP's posture and strategy as it moves forward with the long-planned constitutional amendment. END COMMENT. SWAN