DJIBOUTI OPPOSITION UPDATE: LITTLE NEW MOVEMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DJIBOUTI 001159 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E AND INR/B E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/09/24 TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM SOCI ECON DJ SUBJECT: DJIBOUTI OPPOSITION UPDATE: LITTLE NEW MOVEMENT REF: 09 DJIBOUTI 257; 09 DJIBOUTI 1109 CLASSIFIED BY: J. Swan, Ambassador; REASON: 1.4(B),(D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. In recent meetings with Ambassador, leaders of two opposition parties that remain outside of Djibouti's five-party ruling coalition reiterated their consistent talking points (ref A),criticizing President Guelleh and his administration for inequitable development, a narrowing of political space, and a widely-expected constitutional revision to allow Guelleh to run for a third term in office in 2011. Although they said they had not yet decided whether to participate in 2011 elections, they affirmed a longstanding list of demands as preconditions for participation, again raising the specter of an opposition boycott. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) Ambassador met separately September 16 and 17 with "Union for Democracy and Justice" (UDJ) President Ismail Guedi Hared (who is simultaneously President of the "Union for a Democratic Alternance" (UAD) opposition coalition) and "Republican Alliance for Democracy" (ARD) Secretary-General Adan Mohamed Abdou. Both leaders readily accepted the Ambassador's invitation to participate in an upcoming Embassy-hosted event for political parties featuring an Africa Regional Services (ARS) speaker who is an expert on proportional representation systems. -------------- -------------- -------------- UDJ: WITHOUT PRECONDITIONS, PARTICIPATION "USELESS" -------------- -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) On a possible constitutional amendment to allow President Guelleh to run for a third term in office, Hared noted that twelve years in office (the normal span of the currently allowable two terms) should be "enough if you're working hard, and too long if the management is bad." On 2011 elections, he said that the UDJ wanted to participate, but that if certain preconditions are not met, participation will be "useless." Among these conditions, Hared cited a revision of the voters' list, and the formation of an election commission with half of the members named by the opposition. He also told Ambassador that the opposition would face significant practical disadvantages in campaigning. Campaigning requires time, money, and will, he said. While the ruling "Union for a Presidential Majority" (UMP) coalition may have access to GODJ resources, in contrast, the UDJ has few assets to draw on. UDJ members, Hared said, are largely "retired or unemployed," since younger people seeking work believe they will be disadvantaged if they are associated with the opposition. The GODJ had already refused previous opposition requests to open private television or radio stations, he said. "We are counting on you and France," Hared told Ambassador, to help promote a "simple opening of political space." ¶4. (SBU) BIOGRAPHICAL NOTE ON HARED. After completing his studies in France, Hared worked as a civil servant in the French colonial administration, serving as a labor inspector for ten years. At independence in 1977, he was named Chief of Cabinet to the Presidency. He served as the first Vice-President of the "People's Rally for Progress" (RPP),the current party of President Guelleh. In 1997, Hared was dismissed from his post after being implicated in an anti-presidential plot, alongside two other Ministers (Justice and Defense). He was sentenced to six months in jail and a five-year ban on political activities. Subsequently, his two codefendants created the "Democratic and Social Party" (PSD) in ¶2002. PSD is currently a member of the ruling UMP coalition. Hared helped found the UDJ in 2002, and became UAD coalition President in 2003. Hared is an ethnic Somali Issa (Saad Moussa). END NOTE. -------------- -------------- - ARD: "NOT YET" GIVEN UP ON THE POLITICAL FIGHT DJIBOUTI 00001159 002 OF 002 -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) The GODJ's current priority and what "all people are talking about" right now, Abdou told Ambassador, is the question of a third mandate for President Guelleh. Everybody is waiting for the President himself-who has not yet formally announced his intentions-to discuss the issue publicly. Many in the opposition, Abdou said, cannot understand why the constitution should be amended and fear that Djibouti is going to allow somebody to stand for the Presidency "for life." Even some UMP allies of the President's RPP, he said, are not content (ref B). ¶6. (C) Like Hared, Abdou said that opposition participation in 2011 would be conditioned on a list of demands, including a review of the voters' list, an election commission with half of its members named by the opposition, and more involvement of international observers in the election process. It will be difficult for the opposition to participate without "transparency," he said. The ARD, Abdou stressed, has not given up the "political fight." However, the ARD is concerned, Abdou warned, that soon those who want to pick up arms again will be in the majority. Nevertheless, the opposition is committed to acting "responsibly" and not "destroying" Djibouti. Abdou said that the opposition was hoping that the international community would exert pressure on the GODJ, and appealed to the Ambassador to help "change things." ¶7. (C) Abdou said that while opposition politicians often speak informally with GODJ officials at social events in this close-knit society, in recent years there has been no formal contact or dialogue between the ruling coalition and opposition groups. Only President Guelleh, Abdou maintained, had the political will to decide whether to start a dialogue with the opposition. Asked if the ARD would accept an invitation from the RPP to participate in a dialogue, Abdou said that the ARD would be happy to accept, but would prefer the presence of a third party, either France or "preferably the United States." ¶8. (C) BIOGRAPHICAL NOTE ON ABDOU. In addition to his political activities, Abdou is a longtime union leader. He currently serves as the Secretary-General of the Djiboutian Workers' Union, and has consistently accused the GODJ of suppressing independent union activity and creating government-aligned union "clones." His brother was recently appointed President of Djibouti's new National Human Rights Commission. END NOTE. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) The familiar themes of these conversations suggest that the opposition's thinking on 2011 elections has not evolved significantly-their strategy of choice seems to remain presenting a list of demands, and boycotting if the demands are not met. While UAD members may object strongly to a possible third term for President Guelleh, unlike the former-opposition UMP partners, they have little leverage to either object or extract concessions in return for support. Post will continue to find opportunities to engage both with opposition and ruling-coalition political leaders to stress that it is in everyone's interest for 2011 elections to be free, fair, transparent-and if possible, competitive. END COMMENT. SWAN