DJIBOUTI OPPOSITION UPDATE: LITTLE NEW MOVEMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DJIBOUTI 001159

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E AND INR/B

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/09/24
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM SOCI ECON DJ
SUBJECT: DJIBOUTI OPPOSITION UPDATE: LITTLE NEW MOVEMENT

REF: 09 DJIBOUTI 257; 09 DJIBOUTI 1109

CLASSIFIED BY: J. Swan, Ambassador; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)


1. (C) SUMMARY. In recent meetings with Ambassador, leaders of two
opposition parties that remain outside of Djibouti's five-party
ruling coalition reiterated their consistent talking points (ref
A),criticizing President Guelleh and his administration for
inequitable development, a narrowing of political space, and a
widely-expected constitutional revision to allow Guelleh to run for
a third term in office in 2011. Although they said they had not
yet decided whether to participate in 2011 elections, they affirmed
a longstanding list of demands as preconditions for participation,
again raising the specter of an opposition boycott. END SUMMARY.




2. (SBU) Ambassador met separately September 16 and 17 with "Union
for Democracy and Justice" (UDJ) President Ismail Guedi Hared (who
is simultaneously President of the "Union for a Democratic
Alternance" (UAD) opposition coalition) and "Republican Alliance
for Democracy" (ARD) Secretary-General Adan Mohamed Abdou. Both
leaders readily accepted the Ambassador's invitation to participate
in an upcoming Embassy-hosted event for political parties featuring
an Africa Regional Services (ARS) speaker who is an expert on
proportional representation systems.



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UDJ: WITHOUT PRECONDITIONS, PARTICIPATION "USELESS"

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3. (C) On a possible constitutional amendment to allow President
Guelleh to run for a third term in office, Hared noted that twelve
years in office (the normal span of the currently allowable two
terms) should be "enough if you're working hard, and too long if
the management is bad." On 2011 elections, he said that the UDJ
wanted to participate, but that if certain preconditions are not
met, participation will be "useless." Among these conditions,
Hared cited a revision of the voters' list, and the formation of an
election commission with half of the members named by the
opposition. He also told Ambassador that the opposition would face
significant practical disadvantages in campaigning. Campaigning
requires time, money, and will, he said. While the ruling "Union
for a Presidential Majority" (UMP) coalition may have access to
GODJ resources, in contrast, the UDJ has few assets to draw on.
UDJ members, Hared said, are largely "retired or unemployed," since
younger people seeking work believe they will be disadvantaged if
they are associated with the opposition. The GODJ had already
refused previous opposition requests to open private television or
radio stations, he said. "We are counting on you and France,"
Hared told Ambassador, to help promote a "simple opening of
political space."




4. (SBU) BIOGRAPHICAL NOTE ON HARED. After completing his studies
in France, Hared worked as a civil servant in the French colonial
administration, serving as a labor inspector for ten years. At
independence in 1977, he was named Chief of Cabinet to the
Presidency. He served as the first Vice-President of the "People's
Rally for Progress" (RPP),the current party of President Guelleh.
In 1997, Hared was dismissed from his post after being implicated
in an anti-presidential plot, alongside two other Ministers
(Justice and Defense). He was sentenced to six months in jail and
a five-year ban on political activities. Subsequently, his two
codefendants created the "Democratic and Social Party" (PSD) in

2002. PSD is currently a member of the ruling UMP coalition.
Hared helped found the UDJ in 2002, and became UAD coalition
President in 2003. Hared is an ethnic Somali Issa (Saad Moussa).
END NOTE.



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ARD: "NOT YET" GIVEN UP ON THE POLITICAL FIGHT

DJIBOUTI 00001159 002 OF 002


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5. (C) The GODJ's current priority and what "all people are talking
about" right now, Abdou told Ambassador, is the question of a third
mandate for President Guelleh. Everybody is waiting for the
President himself-who has not yet formally announced his
intentions-to discuss the issue publicly. Many in the opposition,
Abdou said, cannot understand why the constitution should be
amended and fear that Djibouti is going to allow somebody to stand
for the Presidency "for life." Even some UMP allies of the
President's RPP, he said, are not content (ref B).




6. (C) Like Hared, Abdou said that opposition participation in 2011
would be conditioned on a list of demands, including a review of
the voters' list, an election commission with half of its members
named by the opposition, and more involvement of international
observers in the election process. It will be difficult for the
opposition to participate without "transparency," he said. The
ARD, Abdou stressed, has not given up the "political fight."
However, the ARD is concerned, Abdou warned, that soon those who
want to pick up arms again will be in the majority. Nevertheless,
the opposition is committed to acting "responsibly" and not
"destroying" Djibouti. Abdou said that the opposition was hoping
that the international community would exert pressure on the GODJ,
and appealed to the Ambassador to help "change things."




7. (C) Abdou said that while opposition politicians often speak
informally with GODJ officials at social events in this close-knit
society, in recent years there has been no formal contact or
dialogue between the ruling coalition and opposition groups. Only
President Guelleh, Abdou maintained, had the political will to
decide whether to start a dialogue with the opposition. Asked if
the ARD would accept an invitation from the RPP to participate in a
dialogue, Abdou said that the ARD would be happy to accept, but
would prefer the presence of a third party, either France or
"preferably the United States."




8. (C) BIOGRAPHICAL NOTE ON ABDOU. In addition to his political
activities, Abdou is a longtime union leader. He currently serves
as the Secretary-General of the Djiboutian Workers' Union, and has
consistently accused the GODJ of suppressing independent union
activity and creating government-aligned union "clones." His
brother was recently appointed President of Djibouti's new National
Human Rights Commission. END NOTE.



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COMMENT

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9. (C) The familiar themes of these conversations suggest that the
opposition's thinking on 2011 elections has not evolved
significantly-their strategy of choice seems to remain presenting a
list of demands, and boycotting if the demands are not met. While
UAD members may object strongly to a possible third term for
President Guelleh, unlike the former-opposition UMP partners, they
have little leverage to either object or extract concessions in
return for support. Post will continue to find opportunities to
engage both with opposition and ruling-coalition political leaders
to stress that it is in everyone's interest for 2011 elections to
be free, fair, transparent-and if possible, competitive. END
COMMENT.
SWAN