SOMALIA - PRESIDENT TO RETURN TO DJIBOUTI, NAME PM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DJIBOUTI 000105 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF/FO AND AF/E E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019-02-10 TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KDEM SOCI SO DJ SUBJECT: SOMALIA - PRESIDENT TO RETURN TO DJIBOUTI, NAME PM REF: a) DJIBOUTI 100 CLASSIFIED BY: Bob Patterson, Counselor for Somalia Affairs; REASON: 1.4(B),(D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Transitional Federal Government (TFG) President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed returned to Djibouti on February 10 after a successful four-day trip to Mogadishu where he was warmly received by a cross-section of the population. Sharif's next task is to nominate a Prime Minister from among the four apparent front-runners. Post considers any of the four to be acceptable, although we continue to support former UNPOS Advisor Mohamed Abdirazak. President Sharif has assured us that he will preview his choice with us before making a public announcement. While the United Nations worries about the expense of the entire Parliament continuing to its stay in Djibouti and the Djiboutian government worries about security, the parliamentarians claim they need another two weeks to complete their business here. SRSG Ould-Abdallah told us he wants to have a prime minister and cabinet named and ratified by parliament before February 14. Taking advantage of the presence of the mostly idle MPs, the National Democratic Institute (NDI) completed a seminar in governance on February 10. End summary. Sharif in Djibouti, Ready to Interview PM Candidates -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Newly-elected Transitional Federal Government (TFG) President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed was scheduled to return to Djibouti early evening February 10, after a reportedly successful four-day visit to Mogadishu. Sharif's immediate next task is to nominate a prime minister, and he will likely formally interview his candidates on the evening of February 10. There appear to be four candidates, although approximately fifteen self-nominated figures remain in the running. The front runners appear to be former UNPOS consultant and American citizen Mohamed Abdirazak, Dubai-based businessman Said Abdullahi Mohammed, son of the late President Omar Abdirashid Sharmarke, and Somalia Embassy Nairobi Political Counselor Mohammed Osman "Edson." ¶3. (C) The UN Secretary General's Special Representative Ould-Abdallah (SRSG) and the Somalia Unit believe the four nominees are acceptable, although Mohamed Abdirazak is better known to us, and would bring to the job a demonstrated sure hand with the international community and a familiarity with the workings of government that his peers seem to lack. The SRSG remains firmly behind Mohamed Abdirazak. ¶4. (C) In a February 10 conversation, Alliance for the Re-liberation Central Committee Chairman Sharif Hassan told us that the names of the final four candidates would be passed to President Sharif on his return to Djibouti. He voluntarily offered to remove from the list any candidate we thought was unsuited for the job. We subsequently met with the only candidate we did not know well: Said Abdullahi Mohammed. The candidate struck us and the SRSG as qualified to be prime minister. He speaks Arabic and English, is the owner of a large import/export business with offices in Bossaso (Somalia),Dubai, and Oman. Mohammed is the son of a former Minister of Finance in the Sharmarke government. He graduated from Mogadishu University with a degree in English and Arabic and received a Masters degree in management from a university in Malaysia. If chosen, Mohammed could bring the influential Somali business community into the Djibouti Process. He struck us as measured, experienced, and not interested in confrontation. He appears to be a religious moderate whose views would complement, but not coincide with, President Sharif's. Timeline -------------- ¶5. (C) We are told that President Sharif will interview the four candidates on the evening of February 10, and possibly announce his nominee on February 11. It is hoped that Parliament would quickly ratify the nominee, a cabinet would be formed and the entire government would proceed to Mogadishu. SRSG Ould-Abdallah said that he expects this process to be completed by February 14 with the government returning to Somalia on or about February 15. Parliamentarians in Djibouti, predictably, tell us they will need more time in Djibouti to complete this process. The longest timeline we have heard is a week to complete the nomination and ratification, and yet another week to form a Cabinet. We continue to emphasize to all parties the importance of moving quickly to Mogadishu. Governance Training: Learning Decorum DJIBOUTI 00000105 002 OF 002 -------------- ¶6. (C) When it became apparent that the MPs would remain in Djibouti for an extended period, the National Democratic Institute (NDI) stepped in with a course on governance training. The training aimed to instruct the MPs on the workings of committees, the administration of public hearings, and decorum. NDI estimated that 90 percent of the MPs in Djibouti attended the training on the first day, but that number had dropped drastically by the closing day, February 10. Nonetheless, the MPs who attended benefited from the instruction and in their role-playing exercises appeared to have taken onboard many of the concepts taught. There is also a Kuwait-based academic who is conducting a leadership and management training in Arabic. We estimate that approximately 50 MPs are participating in this four-day seminar being hosted by the Somali Business and Investment Council. Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) We are encouraged by the qualifications of the final four candidates, and believe that any of them would acquit himself well as prime minister. That said, we intend to offer President Sharif a prioritized list headed by Mohammed Abdirizak, who would be followed by Omar Sharmarke, Said Abdullahi Mohammed, and, finally, Mohammed Osman "Edson." The willingness of the new Administration to work was again evidenced by Sharif Hassan's voluntary offer to have us cull the list he will hand to President Sharif this evening. SWAN To view the entire SMART message, go to URL http://repository.state.sgov.gov/_layouts/OSS SearchResults.aspx?k=messageid:dab172db-1b09- 491b-83a4-541411bdc946