Somalia - Lobbying for PM Job Intensifies

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DJIBOUTI 000100

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019-01-26
TAGS: PGOV PINR SOCI KDEM SO DJ
SUBJECT: Somalia - Lobbying for PM Job Intensifies

REF: a) DJIBOUTI 97

CLASSIFIED BY: Bob Patterson, Counselor for Somalia Affairs; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)


1. (C) Summary: With newly-elected transitional President Sheikh
Sharif temporarily in Mogadishu, lobbying for the job of prime
minister has intensified in Djibouti. Sharif is widely expected to
return from Mogadishu on February 9, and to name a PM on February

10. There are new, largely self-nominated candidates appearing
every hour, and it is difficult to say with certainty who might get
the nod, but the UN's Special Representative (SRSG) and we continue
to urge the President to reach beyond his Alliance for the
Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) in making his choice, and it appears
that Sharif has gotten that message. Lobbying by the SRSG, Somalia
Counselor, and Ambassador Swan foiled on February 6 what appeared
to be an effort by ARS Central Committee Chairman Sharif Hassan to
engineer the appointment of a candidate, Abdirashid Mohamed Abdi
Hashi "Irro," who did not have the endorsement of the Darod, and
seemed unqualified for the job. We have continued to make the case
for former UNPOS consultant Mohammed Abdirizak, whom we believe is
best qualified to work with Sharif in furthering the Djibouti
Process. End summary.

President Travels to Mogadishu
--------------


2. (C) Transitional President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed left
Djibouti for Mogadishu the morning of February 7 for a planned two
day visit. Accompanying the President were Prime Minister Nur
Hassan Hussein "Nur Adde," Deputy Prime Minister Ahmed Abdisalaam
Aden, and ARS members of the High-Level and Joint Security
Committees, among them Omar Hashi and Professor "Ghandi." As has
been reported in the media, Villa Somalia was mortared following
the arrival of the delegation, but no one was reportedly hurt. The
trip, Sharif's first into Somalia since he was elected President,
was intended both to reassure Somalis of his intention to re-locate
his government to the Somali capital and to allow him to consult in
Mogadishu before naming a prime minister. (Note: at the urging of
the SRSG, President Sharif has postponed a planned February 9 - 10
trip (reftel) to Nairobi for meetings with GOK representatives. He
is now scheduled to return to Djibouti from Mogadishu.)

Decision to Appoint Deferred
--------------


3. (C) President Sharif's deferred his original intention, to
announce his prime minister while in Mogadishu, in the wake of the
UN Special Representative's (SRSG),and our, reservations about the
candidate his staff had mooted. The candidate, Abdirashid Mohamed
Abdi Hashi "Irro," was presented to us on February 6. Although
equipped with the right clan credentials and with considerable
experience in Somalia, Hashi did not appear to have the endorsement
of his clan and, other than a stint as a contractor with UNISOM,
had little international experience. Although "Irro" had inherited
former President Yusuf's seat in Parliament when Yusuf became
President, he was an unknown to even very experienced Somalia
watchers at the time that his name became public.


4. (C) On February 6, at the urging of the SRSG, Ambassador Swan,
and the Somalia Unit, President Sharif reversed his apparent
decision to appoint Hashi. He said Hashi was only one among
several candidates under consideration. He promised us that he
would continue his search for a better-suited prime minister, and
that he would again consult with us before announcing his
appointment. Again at the urging of the SRSG, President Sharif
agreed that he would attempt to complete the consultation process,
and announce his candidate by February 10 or 11. (Note: Following
the announcement, the Parliament must ratify it.)

New Names Circulating
--------------


5. (C) In the wake of Sharif's decision to defer announcement of
the PM and his departure for Mogadishu, additional candidates for
the job of prime minister have continued to emerge. Among the
newer names making the rounds at this juncture are Ahmed Issa Awad,
an Issa Mahmoud sub-clan member who once had worked as Ali Khalif
Galayd's chief-of-staff; Canadian citizen Adam Esse, who has a PhD
in religious affairs from America International University; and
Puntland businessman Siad Abdullahi "Dann," who has been
recommended by Puntland President "Faroole."


6. (C) Soundings suggest, however, that the two frontrunners at
this hour are the candidate we have proposed to Sharif, Mohammed
Abdirizak, and Omar Sharmarke, the son of the late President.
Still, as more Somalis in Djibouti become aware of the possible

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choice of Abdirizak or Sharmarke, it is certain that strenuous
efforts will be made to undercut them with President Sharif. Also
making the outcome difficult to predict is the role of ARS Central
Committee Chairman Sharif Hassan who, rumor has it, was the force
behind the near nomination of Hashi. Both the SRSG and we have
urged Sharif Hassan to give consideration to Mohammed Abdirizak,
but Sharif Hassan's ultimate intentions are unclear.


7. (C) In a February 8 conversation, Djibouti Presidency Secretary
General Ismail Tani told Ambassador Swan and Somalia Counselor that
he thought it unlikely that Mohammed Abdirizak would get the nod
from Sheikh Sharif. Arguing against the appointment, according to
Tani, were Abdirizak's perceived lack of experience on the ground
in Somalia, potential difficulty in rallying clan support, and his
relative youth. (In an effort to persuade the influential Tani of
Abdirizak's bona fides, we are setting up a meeting of the two for
February 8. We are also attempting to ensure that Sheikh Sharif
meets Abdirizak following his return from Mogadishu and before
making his final decision.)

Comment
--------------


8. (C) President Sharif assured us at a February 4 meeting (reftel)
that he would consult closely with us in choosing his prime
minister. The February 6 conversation with the SRSG, Ambassador
Swan, and Somalia Counselor demonstrated the sincerity of his
intentions. Sharif listened carefully to our arguments against his
intended choice, and reversed ground when it became apparent that
Hashi did not have the necessary credentials. While the choice of
a prime minister is ultimately the President's, we believe that the
solid relationship with Sharif cultivated by Ambassadors Yates,
Swan, and members of the Somalia Unit, in addition to the USG's
willingness not to create obstacles to Sharif's ultimately
successful run for the presidency, have produced a healthy
relationship that we can call on in furthering this difficult
reconciliation process. The SRSG and we will continue to
strenuously lobby Abdirizak's candidacy when Sharif returns to
Djibouti on February 9. Although his selection is not assured, we
believe that our input will be carefully considered by the
President before he makes his decision.
SWAN

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