Somalia - Lobbying for PM Job Intensifies

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DJIBOUTI 000100 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019-01-26 TAGS: PGOV PINR SOCI KDEM SO DJ SUBJECT: Somalia - Lobbying for PM Job Intensifies REF: a) DJIBOUTI 97 CLASSIFIED BY: Bob Patterson, Counselor for Somalia Affairs; REASON: 1.4(B),(D) ¶1. (C) Summary: With newly-elected transitional President Sheikh Sharif temporarily in Mogadishu, lobbying for the job of prime minister has intensified in Djibouti. Sharif is widely expected to return from Mogadishu on February 9, and to name a PM on February ¶10. There are new, largely self-nominated candidates appearing every hour, and it is difficult to say with certainty who might get the nod, but the UN's Special Representative (SRSG) and we continue to urge the President to reach beyond his Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) in making his choice, and it appears that Sharif has gotten that message. Lobbying by the SRSG, Somalia Counselor, and Ambassador Swan foiled on February 6 what appeared to be an effort by ARS Central Committee Chairman Sharif Hassan to engineer the appointment of a candidate, Abdirashid Mohamed Abdi Hashi "Irro," who did not have the endorsement of the Darod, and seemed unqualified for the job. We have continued to make the case for former UNPOS consultant Mohammed Abdirizak, whom we believe is best qualified to work with Sharif in furthering the Djibouti Process. End summary. President Travels to Mogadishu -------------- ¶2. (C) Transitional President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed left Djibouti for Mogadishu the morning of February 7 for a planned two day visit. Accompanying the President were Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein "Nur Adde," Deputy Prime Minister Ahmed Abdisalaam Aden, and ARS members of the High-Level and Joint Security Committees, among them Omar Hashi and Professor "Ghandi." As has been reported in the media, Villa Somalia was mortared following the arrival of the delegation, but no one was reportedly hurt. The trip, Sharif's first into Somalia since he was elected President, was intended both to reassure Somalis of his intention to re-locate his government to the Somali capital and to allow him to consult in Mogadishu before naming a prime minister. (Note: at the urging of the SRSG, President Sharif has postponed a planned February 9 - 10 trip (reftel) to Nairobi for meetings with GOK representatives. He is now scheduled to return to Djibouti from Mogadishu.) Decision to Appoint Deferred -------------- ¶3. (C) President Sharif's deferred his original intention, to �00A;announce his prime minister while in Mogadishu, in the wake of the UN Special Representative's (SRSG),and our, reservations about the candidate his staff had mooted. The candidate, Abdirashid Mohamed Abdi Hashi "Irro," was presented to us on February 6. Although equipped with the right clan credentials and with considerable experience in Somalia, Hashi did not appear to have the endorsement of his clan and, other than a stint as a contractor with UNISOM, had little international experience. Although "Irro" had inherited former President Yusuf's seat in Parliament when Yusuf became President, he was an unknown to even very experienced Somalia watchers at the time that his name became public. ¶4. (C) On February 6, at the urging of the SRSG, Ambassador Swan, and the Somalia Unit, President Sharif reversed his apparent decision to appoint Hashi. He said Hashi was only one among several candidates under consideration. He promised us that he would continue his search for a better-suited prime minister, and that he would again consult with us before announcing his appointment. Again at the urging of the SRSG, President Sharif agreed that he would attempt to complete the consultation process, and announce his candidate by February 10 or 11. (Note: Following the announcement, the Parliament must ratify it.) New Names Circulating -------------- ¶5. (C) In the wake of Sharif's decision to defer announcement of the PM and his departure for Mogadishu, additional candidates for the job of prime minister have continued to emerge. Among the newer names making the rounds at this juncture are Ahmed Issa Awad, an Issa Mahmoud sub-clan member who once had worked as Ali Khalif Galayd's chief-of-staff; Canadian citizen Adam Esse, who has a PhD in religious affairs from America International University; and Puntland businessman Siad Abdullahi "Dann," who has been recommended by Puntland President "Faroole." ¶6. (C) Soundings suggest, however, that the two frontrunners at this hour are the candidate we have proposed to Sharif, Mohammed Abdirizak, and Omar Sharmarke, the son of the late President. Still, as more Somalis in Djibouti become aware of the possible DJIBOUTI 00000100 002 OF 002 choice of Abdirizak or Sharmarke, it is certain that strenuous efforts will be made to undercut them with President Sharif. Also making the outcome difficult to predict is the role of ARS Central Committee Chairman Sharif Hassan who, rumor has it, was the force behind the near nomination of Hashi. Both the SRSG and we have urged Sharif Hassan to give consideration to Mohammed Abdirizak, but Sharif Hassan's ultimate intentions are unclear. ¶7. (C) In a February 8 conversation, Djibouti Presidency Secretary General Ismail Tani told Ambassador Swan and Somalia Counselor that he thought it unlikely that Mohammed Abdirizak would get the nod from Sheikh Sharif. Arguing against the appointment, according to Tani, were Abdirizak's perceived lack of experience on the ground in Somalia, potential difficulty in rallying clan support, and his relative youth. (In an effort to persuade the influential Tani of Abdirizak's bona fides, we are setting up a meeting of the two for February 8. We are also attempting to ensure that Sheikh Sharif meets Abdirizak following his return from Mogadishu and before making his final decision.) Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) President Sharif assured us at a February 4 meeting (reftel) that he would consult closely with us in choosing his prime minister. The February 6 conversation with the SRSG, Ambassador Swan, and Somalia Counselor demonstrated the sincerity of his intentions. Sharif listened carefully to our arguments against his intended choice, and reversed ground when it became apparent that Hashi did not have the necessary credentials. While the choice of a prime minister is ultimately the President's, we believe that the solid relationship with Sharif cultivated by Ambassadors Yates, Swan, and members of the Somalia Unit, in addition to the USG's willingness not to create obstacles to Sharif's ultimately successful run for the presidency, have produced a healthy relationship that we can call on in furthering this difficult reconciliation process. The SRSG and we will continue to strenuously lobby Abdirizak's candidacy when Sharif returns to Djibouti on February 9. Although his selection is not assured, we believe that our input will be carefully considered by the President before he makes his decision. SWAN To view the entire SMART message, go to URL http://repository.state.sgov.gov/_layouts/OSS SearchResults.aspx?k=messageid:a543b7b6-7c1f- 450e-aa3f-c353b1813705