GOVERNMENT PROBE FAILS TO FIND OUTSIDE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 000533 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/28/2019 TAGS: PGOV PINR PINS PREL PTER ASEC BG SUBJECT: GOVERNMENT PROBE FAILS TO FIND OUTSIDE CONSPIRATORS IN BORDER GUARD MUTINY REF: DHAKA 241 Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) A much-anticipated government probe into the February border guard mutiny that left 57 army officers dead found no evidence of outside conspirators, mirroring the reported findings of an army investigation. Instead, the report cited long-standing grievances against poor treatment by, and corruption among, officers as the spark that set off the mutiny. The rebellion led to criticism of Bangladesh's intelligence gathering and crisis response capabilities, prompting the authors of the government report to suggest creating a national crisis management committee and a central intelligence coordination committee. These are areas in which the U.S. Government can provide expertise and assistance as part of an overall strategy to encourage security sector reform by the Government of Bangladesh. -------------- -------------- NO BLACK HAND BEHIND THE MUTINY IDENTIFIED ... YET -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) The Home Minister announced findings of the government-commissioned report into the February 25-26 mutiny by Bangladesh Rifles (BDR) at a news conference on May 27. The 12-member committee, led by a retired senior civil servant, found no evidence of extremist or foreign conspirators behind the uprising, even though Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her top lieutenants had repeatedly insisted the mutiny was a plot to destabilize her newly elected government. An army inquiry into the mutiny has not been released publicly but media reports earlier claimed it too found no solid links to outside forces such as Islamist militants or foreign governments. (Note: U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation agents who visited Dhaka in March, and again in early May, to provide technical assistance to the police criminal investigation of the mutiny said they saw no evidence of outside involvement in the mutiny. The police investigation is expected to take at least several more months. End note.) The government report instead cited simmering anger among the BDR troopers over pay, conditions and rampant corruption among their commanding army officers. It said some BDR troopers, or jawans, decided to act after presenting their grievances to politicians and getting no response. ¶3. (SBU) The viciousness of the mutiny in which more than 70 people died, including 57 Army officers seconded to the BDR, convinced many Bangladeshis that something more than work-related grievances was behind the rebellion. (reftel) Among those said to be conspirators prodding the BDR jawans into action were senior lawmakers of the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party, Islamic militants, Awami League lawmakers, and India. The government probe refused to close the door on the conspiracy theories by saying further investigation was needed to determine the "genuine reason" for the uprising. "The main architects of the carnage might have pulled the strings from behind to endanger the stability of the state," local media quoted the report summary as saying. -------------- RECOMMENDATIONS: BETTER INTELLIGENCE, BETTER COORDINATION -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The failure of intelligence agencies to thwart the uprising and the government's seemingly ad hoc response (including the fact that relatively junior Awami League politicians were among those sent to negotiate with the rebellious border guards) had come in for considerable criticism. The probe's authors recommended the creation of a National Crisis Management Committee and the formation of a counter-intelligence force that would include Bangladesh's several intelligence agencies. The report's authors also suggested trials of BDR troopers implicated in the mutiny be held under Military Law. (Note: This could help placate army officers who were livid over what they perceived to be the government's slow response to the mutiny. End note.) The report also recommended a number of improvements in the treatment of the border guards. More ominously, it sharply criticized media coverage of the mutiny, which included aggressive reporting as events unfolded, and suggested a "code of conduct" for media during national security crises. DHAKA 00000533 002 OF 002 -------------- - COMMENT: STILL A LOT OF POST-MUTINY WORK TO DO -------------- - ¶5. (C) By failing to provide fodder for those still peddling conspiracy theories, the government report should help prevent partisan recriminations over the mutiny from returning to the center of Bangladesh's political stage. Indeed, a survey of a half-dozen English-language newspapers found the probe report to be prominently covered but not excessively so. It competed for front-page space with reports of devastation from Cyclone Aila and of the continuing soap opera-like saga of Prime Minister Hasina trying to kick opposition leader Khaleda Zia out of her house on Dhaka's Army cantonment. ¶6. (C) Still, the report did not deal with several critical post-mutiny issues that remain of great importance to the U.S. Government. For example, Embassy Dhaka has raised with the Prime Minister and with other officials concerns about the custodial deaths of roughly two dozen border guards jailed since the mutiny. (Note: On May 21, the government announced formation of a three-member committee to investigate the deaths. End note.) The mutiny also exacerbated tension between the civilian government and the military, a recurring destabilizing theme in Bangladesh's 38-year history. As part of its efforts to encourage security sector reform in Bangladesh, Embassy Dhaka is working with the Department of Defense's Asian Pacific Center on Security Studies to develop a program to promote better civilian-military relations here. We expect the June 10-12 visit to Dhaka by the Center's Director, LTG (retired) Ed Smith, will move that process forward significantly. MORIARTY