BANGLADESH HOLDS PEACEFUL BY-ELECTIONS APRIL 2 AS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 000339

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/INS AND SCA/FO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/03/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR PINS KDEM PREL BG
SUBJECT: BANGLADESH HOLDS PEACEFUL BY-ELECTIONS APRIL 2 AS
FEARS OF RETURN TO STATUS QUO POLITICS GROW

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i. Geeta Pasi. Reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d)

SUMMARY
=======


1. (C) On April 2, voters in six constituencies elected
replacements for members of parliament compelled to
relinquish seats won in the December 2008 polls. While voter
turnout was down from December's record highs, voting in
these six by-elections went smoothly, with the only change
from December being the victory of an Awami League candidate
in a seat won earlier by the Jatiya Party. In a welcome
break from the past, Election Commission officials were
responsible for conducting the elections, with logistic
support and security provided by the local administration and
police. While the conduct of elections continues to be a
bright spot for Bangladeshi democracy, there are growing
concerns that politics in general may be returning to the
status quo that existed before the January 11, 2007
imposition of a State of Emergency. In a new low, the Prime
Minister and members of her party have now called upon the
Leader of the Opposition to vacate her residence in Dhaka's
cantonment to make room for housing for families of army
officers slain in the February Bangladesh Rifles mutiny.
Meanwhile, Anti Corruption Chairman LTG (retd) Hasan Mashud
Chowdhury's April 2 resignation is another sign that the
reform process initiated by the Caretaker Government may be
losing momentum.

Elections: Free, Fair, Credible and Peaceful
=============================================


2. (C) On April 2, by-elections were held in six
parliamentary constituencies after Prime Minister Sheikh
Hasina, Opposition Leader Khaleda Zia, Jatiya Party President
Hossain Mohammad Ershad, and President Zillur Rahman were
compelled to relinquish seats won in December 2008. (Note:
Hasina, Khaleda, and Ershad had each won three seats in
December and by law were forced to relinquish two seats each,
while the President also gave up his seat when he assumed his
new office.) The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)
nominated veteran politicians Jamiruddin Sircar and Moudud
Ahmed to defend two seats in the party's stronghold in Bogra
district. Hasina's relative Sheikh Helal was elected
unopposed in Bagerhat District and President Zillur's son
Nazmul Hasan stood for his seat in Kishoreganj. Ershad's
estranged wife Raushan Ershad defended one of his Rangpur
seats. The other candidates were all relative unknowns,
chosen from the ranks of local party leaders. In the end,
the parties each retained the seats they had won in December
by healthy margins, with the lone exception of the Awami
League's victory in Kurigram--taking a seat captured in
December by its erstwhile alliance partner, the Jatiya Party.



3. (C) The Embassy fielded observer teams in five of the
constituencies and coordinated with observers sent by the
National Democratic Institute, International Republican
Institute, and the Asian Foundation-organized Election
Working Group, which fielded domestic observers. Our
observer teams reported only minor irregularities and praised
the Election Commission's overall conduct of the polls. In a
break from the past, the Commission (and not the local
administration) was responsible for administering the polls.
This was a healthy development which should serve to lessen
the potential for the party in power to influence the results
of the elections. Unlike in December 2008, the Army and
Bangladesh Rifles did not deploy to provide security for the
elections, leaving this responsibility in the hands of the
police, backed up by the Rapid Action Battalion and
paramilitary Ansars (an auxiliary force normally devoted to
local development programs). As expected, turnout in the
by-elections was down significantly from the record turnout
recorded in December 2008, but still in line with previous
by-elections.

Mudslinging Continues
=====================


4. (C) While the conduct of the elections remains a bright
spot, the tenor of politics has continued to deteriorate
since the February 25 - 26 Bangladesh Rifles mutiny. On the
eve of the April 2 election, Prime Minister Hasina touched a
raw nerve when she demanded that the Leader of the Opposition
vacate her residence on Dhaka's cantonment to make way for an
apartment complex for family members of the army officers
killed during the mutiny. Following her husband President

DHAKA 00000339 002 OF 002


Ziaur Rahman's 1981 assassination, the then-government
granted the house (in which they were living at the time) to
Khaleda Zia and her family. When Zia died his family was
left penniless and the Cabinet voted to provide Khaleda and
her children with two houses, a cash payment, and a series of
other benefits. While former President Ershad and members of
the Cabinet have supported the Prime Minister's call, senior
BNP officials have rejected this as a political stunt. Awami
League insiders tell us the party also wants to break the
historic ties between the BNP and the Army. Regardless, this
latest episode is a further indication of the depth of
personal enmity between the two Begums.

ACC Chairman Steps Down
=======================


5. (C) On election day, Anti Corruption Commission (ACC)
Chairman LTG (ret) Hasan Mashud Chowdhury called a press
conference to announce his resignation. In a brief
statement, Chowdhury simply said that it was time for the ACC
to have new leadership. The resignation was long expected as
criticism of the ACC had mounted and the new government had
moved to undermine its past decisions. State Minister for
Law, Justice, and Parliamentary Affairs Kamrul Islam publicly
welcomed the ACC Chair's resignation. Kamrul and other senior
officials have pledged to reform the ACC and announced plans
to investigate its past actions. Since January, both ruling
party and opposition leaders have been vocal in criticizing
the ACC Chairman's actions as having been "political" even as
they have refrained from questioning his personal integrity.
The ACC's critics have been particularly vocal regarding the
Commission's use of (allegedly overpriced) outside private
legal counsel to prosecute its cases. During a meeting with
the Embassy's Resident Legal Advisor in late March, ACC
officials defended hiring private lawyers as necessary in
light of the high quality of the legal counsel working for
their well-heeled suspects. The GOB has not given any hints
about its plans to select a new ACC Chairman.

Comment
=======


6. (C) The conduct of the April 2 by-elections was a
welcome reminder of the progress that had been made in
strengthening electoral systems and processes during the
Caretaker Government's tenure. The BNP's convincing victory
in Bogra dissipates its threat to go to the streets if the
elections were "stolen." At the same time, the Jatiya
Party's defeat in Kurigram will be hard for former President
Ershad to swallow and will likely worsen tensions between
members of the "grand alliance." While the elections were a
positive development, they took place in the context of
growing concern that the political system was returning to
the status quo that existed before the January 11, 2007 state
of emergency. The leaders of the major parties will have to
set the tone if there is to be any change in the "winner take
all" political system. Unfortunately, the Prime Minister
appears to have hardened her position since the BDR mutiny,
making it less likely that the government will reach out to
the opposition.
PASI