AWAMI LEAGUE ALLIANCE PARTNER STILL ON BOARD...FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 000259

/ / / C O R R E C T E D C O P Y - PARA MARKINGS (7 VICE 8) / / /

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/11/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV ASEC PINR KDEM BG
SUBJECT: AWAMI LEAGUE ALLIANCE PARTNER STILL ON BOARD...FOR
NOW

REF: A. DHAKA 254

B. DHAKA 237

DHAKA 00000259 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador James Moriarty, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)


SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Former Bangladesh President and leader of the Jatiya
Party H.M. Ershad said March 9 he still supported Prime
Minister Sheikh Hasina, even as he criticized her handling of
the recent mutiny in the Bangladesh Rifles. Ershad backed
away from earlier statements that India had played a role in
the mutiny. He observed that Bangladesh's system of
government lacked functioning checks and balances, leaving
the ARMY as the final arbiter when political institutions
failed. Ershad registered concern that the Awami League
appeared to be reneging on its commitments to the Jatiya
Party, its alliance partner, by fielding candidates in Jatiya
Party consituencies in upcoming by-elections. He cited
rising tensions between alliance partners Awami League and
Jatiya Party as evidence of the degree to which the mutiny
had weakened democratic institutions in Bangladesh.

PRIME MINISTER SHOULD HAVE SENT IN THE ARMY SOONER
--------------


2. (C) H.M. Ershad, former President and leader of
Bangladesh's third largest political party, the Jatiya Party,
told the Ambassador March 9 many deaths could have been
prevented during the February 25-26 mutiny by the Bangladesh
Rifles (BDR) if only Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had
signaled her intent to send in the ARMY early on February 25
instead of waiting until the afternoon of February 26.
Ershad, a former Chief of ARMY Staff whose nephew was killed
in the mutiny, said the mere threat of ARMY force would have
led the mutineers to drop their weapons and would have saved
lives.


3. (C) Ershad did back away from his earlier, impassioned
criticism of India's alleged role in the mutiny. In contrast
to comments made over the phone to the Ambassador immediately
after the mutiny, Ershad said March 9 India should be ruled
out as a possible foreign hand that instigated the mutiny
(Ref A). Indeed, Ershad was also unwilling to blame the
mutiny on any other external actor.

MUTINY HAS WIDENED POLITICAL FAULT LINES
--------------


4. (C) Ershad criticized both Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina
and Leader of the Opposition Khaleda Zia for resorting to
petty politics in the midst of a national tragedy. In
particular he blasted the two major parties for engaging in
finger-pointing during a Parliamentary session called to pass
a resolution expressing sympathy for the mutiny victims and
their families.


5. (C) Ershad said the mutiny was yet another example of how
the ARMY is the institution of last resort when political
institutions broke down in Bangladesh. The government could
have strengthened political institutions at this time of
national tragedy by involving the opposition in resolving the
mutiny or its consequences. Instead, according to Ershad, the
government dithered, sent in negotiators with questionable
motives and abilities and turned to the ARMY too late. The
two main political parties needed an attitude change to solve
civil-military relations problems in Bangladesh.

JATIYA WILLING TO GIVE AWAMI LEAGUE ANOTHER CHANCE
-------------- -


6. (C) That said, Ershad claimed he still supported the
Prime Minister and wished to remain in the 14-party alliance.
The Awami League's handling of upcoming by-elections would
be critical to the Jatiya Party's commitment to the alliance.
The Government of Bangladesh (GOB) scheduled by-elections in
early April for constituencies won by politicians who ran in
multiple constituencies, which includes Hasina, Zia and
Ershad. (NOTE: Members of Parliament may only represent one
constituency. END NOTE.) Ershad won in three
constituencies, and he said the PM had promised him the

DHAKA 00000259 002 OF 002


Jatiya Party could have the two extra seats he won. Now,
however, it appeared that the Awami League might be fielding
its own candidates in Ershad's constituencies. While Ershad
said he was committed to the 14-party alliance, he indicated
he would watch closely to see whether the Awami League abided
by the PM's promise regarding his constituences.

COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) Though Ershad's logic at times seemed contradictory
-- e.g. critizing the government for waiting too long to call
the ARMY and then critizing Bangladesh's tendency to resort
to the ARMY to solve political problems -- it is undoubtedly
clear the mutiny has weakened democratic institutions here
just as they appeared to be gaining some strength. Ershad
appears to be willing to give the Prime Minister the benefit
of the doubt for now. But just as BNP Chairperson Begum Zia
said she would watch the outcome of the upcoming by-elections
in her constituencies (Ref B),so too has Ershad laid down a
marker with regard to the Awami League's handling of
by-elections in constituencies he won. The Awami League's
apparent willingness to renege on promises to the Jatiya
Party may reflect the PM's anger at Ershad's public, as well
as private, criticism of her handling of the mutiny. This
bickering highlights the accelerated return to the politics
of recrimination following the mutiny, a return we had worked
hard to prevent.

MORIARTY