AWAMI LEAGUE ALLIANCE PARTNER STILL ON BOARD...FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 000259 / / / C O R R E C T E D C O P Y - PARA MARKINGS (7 VICE 8) / / / SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/11/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV ASEC PINR KDEM BG SUBJECT: AWAMI LEAGUE ALLIANCE PARTNER STILL ON BOARD...FOR NOW REF: A. DHAKA 254 ¶B. DHAKA 237 DHAKA 00000259 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador James Moriarty, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Former Bangladesh President and leader of the Jatiya Party H.M. Ershad said March 9 he still supported Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, even as he criticized her handling of the recent mutiny in the Bangladesh Rifles. Ershad backed away from earlier statements that India had played a role in the mutiny. He observed that Bangladesh's system of government lacked functioning checks and balances, leaving the Army as the final arbiter when political institutions failed. Ershad registered concern that the Awami League appeared to be reneging on its commitments to the Jatiya Party, its alliance partner, by fielding candidates in Jatiya Party consituencies in upcoming by-elections. He cited rising tensions between alliance partners Awami League and Jatiya Party as evidence of the degree to which the mutiny had weakened democratic institutions in Bangladesh. PRIME MINISTER SHOULD HAVE SENT IN THE ARMY SOONER -------------- ¶2. (C) H.M. Ershad, former President and leader of Bangladesh's third largest political party, the Jatiya Party, told the Ambassador March 9 many deaths could have been prevented during the February 25-26 mutiny by the Bangladesh Rifles (BDR) if only Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had signaled her intent to send in the Army early on February 25 instead of waiting until the afternoon of February 26. Ershad, a former Chief of Army Staff whose nephew was killed in the mutiny, said the mere threat of Army force would have led the mutineers to drop their weapons and would have saved lives. ¶3. (C) Ershad did back away from his earlier, impassioned criticism of India's alleged role in the mutiny. In contrast to comments made over the phone to the Ambassador immediately after the mutiny, Ershad said March 9 India should be ruled out as a possible foreign hand that instigated the mutiny (Ref A). Indeed, Ershad was also unwilling to blame the mutiny on any other external actor. MUTINY HAS WIDENED POLITICAL FAULT LINES -------------- ¶4. (C) Ershad criticized both Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and Leader of the Opposition Khaleda Zia for resorting to petty politics in the midst of a national tragedy. In particular he blasted the two major parties for engaging in finger-pointing during a Parliamentary session called to pass a resolution expressing sympathy for the mutiny victims and their families. ¶5. (C) Ershad said the mutiny was yet another example of how the Army is the institution of last resort when political institutions broke down in Bangladesh. The government could have strengthened political institutions at this time of national tragedy by involving the opposition in resolving the mutiny or its consequences. Instead, according to Ershad, the government dithered, sent in negotiators with questionable motives and abilities and turned to the Army too late. The two main political parties needed an attitude change to solve civil-military relations problems in Bangladesh. JATIYA WILLING TO GIVE AWAMI LEAGUE ANOTHER CHANCE -------------- - ¶6. (C) That said, Ershad claimed he still supported the Prime Minister and wished to remain in the 14-party alliance. The Awami League's handling of upcoming by-elections would be critical to the Jatiya Party's commitment to the alliance. The Government of Bangladesh (GOB) scheduled by-elections in early April for constituencies won by politicians who ran in multiple constituencies, which includes Hasina, Zia and Ershad. (NOTE: Members of Parliament may only represent one constituency. END NOTE.) Ershad won in three constituencies, and he said the PM had promised him the DHAKA 00000259 002 OF 002 Jatiya Party could have the two extra seats he won. Now, however, it appeared that the Awami League might be fielding its own candidates in Ershad's constituencies. While Ershad said he was committed to the 14-party alliance, he indicated he would watch closely to see whether the Awami League abided by the PM's promise regarding his constituences. COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) Though Ershad's logic at times seemed contradictory -- e.g. critizing the government for waiting too long to call the Army and then critizing Bangladesh's tendency to resort to the Army to solve political problems -- it is undoubtedly clear the mutiny has weakened democratic institutions here just as they appeared to be gaining some strength. Ershad appears to be willing to give the Prime Minister the benefit of the doubt for now. But just as BNP Chairperson Begum Zia said she would watch the outcome of the upcoming by-elections in her constituencies (Ref B),so too has Ershad laid down a marker with regard to the Awami League's handling of by-elections in constituencies he won. The Awami League's apparent willingness to renege on promises to the Jatiya Party may reflect the PM's anger at Ershad's public, as well as private, criticism of her handling of the mutiny. This bickering highlights the accelerated return to the politics of recrimination following the mutiny, a return we had worked hard to prevent. MORIARTY