MUTINY OF BANGLADESH BORDER FORCE SPREADS OUTSIDE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 000204 SIPDIS NEW DELHI PLEASE PASS FAS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2019 TAGS: PGOV ASEC CASC PINS ETRD BG SUBJECT: MUTINY OF BANGLADESH BORDER FORCE SPREADS OUTSIDE DHAKA REF: DHAKA 196 Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's two-month-old government struggled to quell a spreading insurgency among paramilitary border guards that entered its second day on 2/26. In a nationally televised address, a sombre-looking Hasina told rebels of the Bangladesh Rifles she would order an attack to end the mutiny if they failed to lay down their arms and negotiate a settlement. Widespread reports that the insurgency had spread from DHAKA to bases around the country and that many senior army officers had been killed further complicated efforts to resolve the stand-off. At 1700 local time, nearly a dozen tanks rumbled into position around the insurgents' stronghold at Bangladesh Rifles Headquarters in central DHAKA amid reports at least some rebels were surrendering their weapons. In a phone call at 1730 local time, the Prime Minister told the Ambassador she hoped the crisis would be resolved within hours and expressed appreciation for our message of support for her government. Embassy Dhaka's Emergency Action Committee met to reassess the security situation; as of 1700 local time there were no reports of American citizen casualties. -------------- -------------- REBELLION SPREADS AS REPORTED CASUALTY FIGURE SOARS -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The rebellion that began on 2/25 at Bangladesh Rifles Headquarters over grievances regarding pay and benefits (reftel) spread the following day to camps around the country. According to various unofficial reports, by early 2/26 mutinous Bangladesh Rifles conscripts had wrested control of border camps in all corners of the country. According to the reports, officers fled several camps while their subordinates raided armories and took up defensive positions in support of the DHAKA rebels. ¶3. (C) Throughout the second day, estimates of casualties grew amid reports that several senior army officers who led the Bangladesh Rifles were among the dead. Although the government issued no official casualty list, Commerce Minister Col (retired) Faruk Khan told the Ambassador the death toll was at least 50-70, with other unofficial estimates going as high as more than 100. The minister said among the dead were Bangladesh Rifles Director General Maj Gen Shakil Ahmed and his wife, both of whom were reputed to be extravagantly corrupt and oblivious to the harsh work conditions endured by the rank-and-file. The minister said irate rebels executed other senior Bangladesh Rifle leaders. (Note: Tension reportedly ran high between Bangladesh Rifle enlisted men and their senior leaders, who did not rise up from the rank-and-file but transferred from the army for rotational assignments. End note.) -------------- SHEIKH HASINA SEEKS PEACEFUL RESOLUTION -------------- ¶4. (C) After meeting with her Cabinet and leaders of her Awami League party, a sombre Hasina broadcast a 15-minute televised address to the nation at 1415 local time to urge the rebels to lay down their arms or face a violent end to the insurgency. She stressed her desire to find a negotiated solution and reiterated her willingness to provide a general amnesty. Home Affairs Minister Sahara Khatun later went to the Bangladesh Rifles Headquarters to resume negotiations with rebels; insurgents hoisted white flags within the compound and at least some rebels reportedly were surrendering their arms. According to Embassy reporting, by 1700 local time 11 T-69 tanks were positioned on the leafy streets of the posh Dhanmondi district adjacent to the compound, presumably in a show of force to back negotiations but also in preparation for an attack on rebels who refused to surrender. Throughout the day, sources told the Embassy the government wanted the rebellion quashed by day's end. ¶5. (C) Hampering efforts to resolve the stand-off was the DHAKA 00000204 002 OF 002 disarray of the rebels, who appeared to be operating as several separate groups with no central leadership. The Commerce Minister noted the government had negotiated with several different groups. The fractured rebellion suggested the uprising was spontaneous and not, as some Awami League partisans claimed, a long-planned conspiracy with at least the tacit support of opposition parties. Indeed, the public response to the crisis from the main opposition, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP),was restrained and responsible. A party spokesman urged patience and restraint on all sides to reach a "just and logical solution to the problems," according to media reports. -------------- LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS -------------- ¶6. (C) However the stand-off ends, it will have long-lasting governance and counterterrorism implications for Bangladesh. The crisis appears to be testing what is widely perceived to be tenuous civilian control over the military. While Hasina's instincts appeared to be to avoid bloodshed to whatever extent possible, her political allies acknowledged pressure from within the army to revenge the deaths of their officers. (Note: The military has a long history of political involvement, most recently as the key supporter of the 2007-2008 Caretaker Government whose anti-corruption drive and democratic reforms targeted many leading politicians, including Hasina. End note.) ¶7. (C) Bangladesh's already porous land borders are even more so as a result of the rebellion. The borders could remain in a heightened state of vulnerability for at least the near future as the Bangladesh Rifles suffer the fallout from its insurgency. This in turn could harm relations with India, which already claims its home-grown extremists and international terrorists launch attacks against it from Bangladesh. -------------- MISSION DHAKA ON ALERT -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The Emergency Action Committee convened at 1300 local time on 2/26. The Embassy activated its phone tree, told Embassy personnel to carry walkie-talkie radios, and opened a round-the-clock operations center to monitor developments. Mission personnel and their families remained confined to the diplomatic enclave until further notice. The American International School of DHAKA held classes on 2/26 but cancelled all extracurricular activity through Saturday, the end of the weekend. -------------- COMMENT: USG ROLE -------------- ¶9. (C) The Embassy is reaching out to all major players -- including Sheikh Hasina, the opposition and military leaders -- to urge a resolution to the crisis consistent with democratic norms, especially civilian control over the military. The Embassy is taking every opportunity to emphasize the USG's support for the newly elected government in its first major test. The Ambassasdor phoned the Prime Minister at about 1730 on 2/26 to convey USG support for her government's efforts to resolve the crisis. Hasina thanked the Ambassador and expressed the hope the crisis would be resolved in the coming hours. The rebellion has underscored the need for the Government of Bangladesh to strengthen its decision-making institutions, particularly in times of crisis, and its border management regime. Once the dust settles, Embassy DHAKA will review its ongoing plans to provide assistance in both these critical areas. MORIARTY